Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Kansas City, MO

010 
WGUS73 KEAX 200445
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSC005-043-MOC003-021-147-165-200455-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250520T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Atchison KS-Doniphan KS-Andrew MO-Buchanan MO-Nodaway MO-Platte
MO-
1145 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND SOUTHEASTERN 
DONIPHAN COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, ANDREW, BUCHANAN AND 
SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN 
PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A 
FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 4039 9461 3943 9462 3941 9495 3942 9497
      3942 9506 4038 9493

$$

73

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Lincoln IL
642 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, including possible multiple
  rounds, remain expected today into tonight

- Flooding, overland and river, remains possible should similar
  areas experience heavy rainfall from multiple rounds of storms

- Cooler Temperatures From Mid to Late Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

In anticipation of convective activity quickly increasing after
18z/19z and needing to transition to severe weather ops, this
discussion is earlier than typical and will primarily focus on the
today/tonight time frame.

Unusually high uncertainty lingering late this morning with regards
to the expectation and evolution of the strong to severe storm
threat this afternoon into the evening and overnight. Before
breaking down anticipated evolution and uncertainties, a broad look
at the current environment...

Overnight/early this morning, warm front had remained shunted
southward over the Ozarks versus entering the forecast area, and
even by late this morning the surface warm front (more southerly
wind push) remains fairly diffuse and displaced southward over the
Ozarks. However, 16z surface dewpoint and surface wind analysis
suggests that a relative boundary/warm front is gradually becoming
more apparent across the forecast area from roughly KSTJ/St. Joseph
back SE through KCOU/Columbia, establishing a sizable warm sector.
Forecast area remains broadly covered in stratus, though a few
breaks in cloud cover have begun to appear. Peering upstream, do not
anticipate substantial increase in cloud breaks with
continued/ongoing strong moisture advection, but would certainly
carry ramifications for convection strength. Parent surface low
finds itself elongated and stretching from south-central Nebraska
through Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, resulting in dry lines being
back over those locations. Leading mid-upper level shortwave trough
lifting northward into the Dakotas, with a secondary shortwave riding
down the backside and cross Colorado/northern New Mexico at this
point in time. Associated 500mb/300mb jet streaks rounding the
trough furthering the negative tilt and encroaching the forecast
area.

Environment evolution over the couple hours is fairly high
confidence, but the evolution of convection, once it occurs, is a
bit less so. Ongoing surface/near-surface WAA/moisture advection and
encroaching mid-upper level wave will continue to prime the
environment with increasing SB/MLCAPE values into the 2500-3000 J/kg
neighborhood around and south of a line from KSTJ/KCOU. RAP/HRRR
hodographs continue to depict sweep hodograph curvature through the
low levels and modest elongation above, though recent ACARs
soundings have suggested models are underdoing wind speeds as they
have depicted larger curvature and greater elongation through the
mid levels. This would suggest the opportunity for supercellular
activity and all modes of severe may be greater than RAP/HRRR
suggestions. However, a wild card remains with regards to how
rapidly initial convection grows upscale and congeals into
MCS/linear or at least more destructive interactions. As synoptic
scale lift continues to increase, expectation remains for a weak to
nil cap to establish early this afternoon and would point towards
rapid upscale growth and a limited window for isolated
supercellular activity. Recent HRRR runs supports this with only
brief low level UH tracks before convection rapidly grows upscale.
Do not see any indications this wouldn't be the prevailed solution
with initial convection this afternoon. Hazards would thusly
primarily center around large hail and damaging winds. Certainly
cannot rule out a tornadic threat with the supportive hodograph,
LCLs, etc, but would be limited for the reasons above. Should an
isolated storm or two be able to maintain for a prolonged period of
time though, they could pose substantial threat.

After initial wave of convection, a second round too remains
expected as convection along the dry line back across Kansas grow
upscale and moves eastward into the area. Timing to the KS/MO border
appears roughly around the 8-10pm time frame and becomes more
elevated in nature in the wake of the afternoon convection and as it
moves out ahead of the dry line. Ongoing moisture advection around
the 850mb level and at least moderate mid-level lapse rates may
yield MUCAPE values >1500-2000 J/kg ahead of this activity. Primary
concern would be for damaging winds along with a transient small
hail risk with the more linear orientation and lapse rates look to
become less supportive. While a cold pool may establish, depictions
of this activity moving off ahead of the initiating boundary would
result in unsupportive 0-3km shear vectors and limit any QLCS type
tornadic spin ups.

Yet a third round of convection will be possible as cold frontal
boundary eventually moves into the area overnight, but by this time
a very much worked over atmosphere may be ill able to substantiate
much of a severe risk. Linear convective mode and better 0-3km shear
orientation may yield a leading edge spin up opportunity, but a lot
has to play out prior to this to determine how robust convection may
be with this passage.

Hydrologically speaking, there too remains a flooding threat,
especially given potential for 2-3 rounds of convection over similar
areas. High PWats and fairly deep warm cloud layer depths too play
up the heavy, and efficient, rain potential with these storms.
Headwater and flash flood guidance remains fairly high since the
convection/precipitation last night was not substantial and less
than initially expected. This results in estimated precipitation
amounts of 2" to 4"+ needed to yield overland or river flooding
issues. CAMs continue to suggest possible areas of 4"+, but are
highly dependent on overlap of the rounds of convection, as well as
achieving fairly widespread convective coverage as the CAMs suggest.
Remains difficult to have high confidence in locations at greatest
risk, but currently appear around the Highway 36 to I-70 corridors,
and west of Columbia/Brookfield areas where most robust convection
may be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Another round of showers and storms will affect the area with
MVFR across majority of the area with TSRA at all sites. Timing
of second round of storms for northeastern KS will be 01-05z,
then reaching western MO from 02-06z and will shift eastward
into central MO. Expect MVFR to continue with onset of heavier
precipitation, and may see periods of IFR conditions through
12z. Even a third round of storms possible just after midnight,
but will cover with a PROB30 until it becomes better defined in
the HiRes models. MVFR continues into the morning then clouds
scatter out around noon. Winds will be breezy tonight, then
decreasing overnight. Winds switch to westerly in the morning
and become breezy again for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Auten

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-200815-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
313 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon and evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Lingering thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
801 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Kansas City Kansa 39.11N 94.66W
05/19/2025                   Wyandotte          KS   Utility Company

            Downed wires near 24th Street. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
806 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Wellington          39.08N 93.98W
05/19/2025                   Lafayette          MO   Public

            Downed tree on Route 131 near Route FF. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
817 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Worland            38.18N 94.58W
05/19/2025                   Bates              MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Downed trees near Route U near Worland. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
832 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 E Jarbalo             39.20N 95.01W
05/19/2025  M60 MPH          Leavenworth        KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

SM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
847 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Brownington       38.26N 93.68W
05/19/2025                   Henry              MO   Public

            Social media report and photos of several
            trees down at a residence east of Deepwater.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
859 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Hail             1 SSW Lenexa            38.94N 94.74W
05/19/2025  E1.50 Inch       Johnson            KS   Public

            Social media report. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

CMS