Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
226 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon through Saturday. Severe weather is possible, there
  is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for today and tonight, and
  a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Friday.

- There is a risk of heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms,
  especially for areas that see multiple rounds. Flash flooding
  of low-lying areas and urban areas may be a concern. River
  flooding may also become a concern.

- Seasonal temperatures and humidity levels will continue into
  next week. A cold front may arrive later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Temperatures have quickly warmed into the 80s across most of the
area early this afternoon. Most climb into the upper 80s for
high temperatures. With the strong heating, cumulus is beginning
to develop south of a remnant mesoscale convective vortex
moving across southern Minnesota and associated outflow across
eastern Iowa. This may be a focus for afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development. Model guidance remains uncertain, but
latest satellite trends appear to show the potential for
scattered thunderstorms along and north of Interstate 80 into
tonight. In addition to this, a broken line of thunderstorms is
expected to move in from the west after midnight, clearing the
area by sunrise on Friday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of
severe weather is forecast through tonight with damaging winds
the main hazard. An isolated tornado can not be completely ruled
out. Flash flooding will also be possible with a very moist
environment. Very high rainfall rates in thunderstorms will
support a localized flash flood threat, especially if areas
receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Temperatures by Friday
morning should cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

A brief lull in the thunderstorm activity may be possible behind
morning thunderstorms before additional thunderstorms begin to
develop by the afternoon. Strong daytime heating allow
temperatures to quickly climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop across western
portions of the area and along remnant outflow along and north
of Interstate 80 through the afternoon and evening. Eventually
these thunderstorms will slowly move eastward as one or more
lines through the region. With this activity, a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) of thunderstorms is possible. Damaging winds
remain the primary hazard, but isolated large hail or an
isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Otherwise, flash flooding
remains a concern, especially for areas that received rainfall
Thursday or multiple rounds on Friday. River flooding may
become a concern as well. At present, total rainfall through
Saturday appears to remain between 1 and 2 inches with locally
higher amounts near 3 or more inches possible for areas that
receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Once again,
thunderstorms begin to weaken and exit the area by Saturday
morning as temperatures cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

With the main trough expected to push east of the area by
Saturday afternoon, only isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast. Temperatures will otherwise remain
seasonal. Sunday will likely remain dry with overall beautiful
July weather for the region. Temperatures heat up into the 90s
early next week ahead of our next weather system that should
bring the return of rain chances by the middle of next week.
Temperatures will return to near normal before a potential cold
front later in the week brings cooler temperatures to the area.
Below normal temperatures in the upper 70s may be possible
towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period with
light southerly winds between 5 to 10 kts. There remains high
uncertainty with regards to any afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Aviation impacts appear unlikely as coverage
should remain limited if any thunderstorms develop. Late this
evening and early tonight, from between approximately 02Z to
07Z, thunderstorm development is expected north of I-80. These
thunderstorms will generally be widely scattered with the
highest chance of impacts at DBQ. A more likely area of
thunderstorms moves into the region from the west after 06Z.
Impacts to DBQ are expected with lower probability of impacts at
CID and MLI. MVFR ceilings and visibility within thunderstorms
with variable and gusty winds can be expected with this
activity. BRL is expected to remain south of this activity
currently. Thunderstorms may continue into the late morning and
early afternoon on Friday across portions of the area.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...NWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
151 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111900-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
151 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather this
afternoon and tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected, especially along and north of Interstate 80. Damaging
winds are the primary hazard, but an isolated tornado can not be
ruled out.

In addition to potential severe weather, flash flooding may also
be possible. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall. There will be a threat of flash flooding,
especially for areas that receive repeated rounds of
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon on Friday through the early morning on Saturday. There
is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms during
this time. Damaging winds will remain the main hazard with an
isolated large hail and tornado threat.

Flash flooding will continue to be possible across the area,
especially in areas that received rainfall Thursday or multiple
rounds on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into tonight,
especially along and north of Interstate 80. Spotter activation
may also be needed across the area on Friday.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
448 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

IAZ063-064-102230-
Iowa IA-Johnson IA-
448 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Iowa
and west central Johnson Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Oxford, or 13 miles west of Iowa City, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could cause minor tree limb damage and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Iowa City, Coralville, North Liberty, Tiffin, University Heights,
Hills, Oakdale, Iowa City Municipal Airport, Frytown, Windham,
Johnson County Fairgrounds, Cosgrove, and Sharon Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 229 and 242.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 1 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring and may lead to localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Stay away from
flooded areas. Report any flooding to local law enforcement.

&&

LAT...LON 4153 9183 4168 9188 4175 9160 4157 9151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 257DEG 14KT 4161 9180

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

McClure