Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast this
  afternoon into tonight (50-80%), a few of which could become
  strong to severe

- Occasional chances of showers and storms remain in the picture
  through next week, but with plenty of dry periods interspersed

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A more active day remains on tap today, with increasing chances of
showers and storms (50-80%) this afternoon lingering into tonight.
The culprit is a mid-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front
that is approaching the region from the northwest. Some isolated
strong to severe storms are possible. Analysis of the convective
parameter space indicates that damaging winds will be the primary
threat due to copious PWAT values in excess of 2 inches (near the
maximum for the DVN 06.00z sounding climatology per SPC).
Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates will be in place, which
should combine with the high PWATs to result in the threat for some
locally strong wet microbursts. As such, SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms for most of the CWA,
save for the far southeastern areas. Storms look to come in two
waves, with the first having more scattered coverage this afternoon
along a pre-frontal trough, and a second more widespread round as
the cold front moves through. Storms should begin to diminish after
midnight tonight. With the anomalously high PWATs and high freezing
levels around 16,500 ft per the 05.12z DVN RAOB, these conditions
are supportive of torrential downpours due to efficient warm rain
processes. Therefore, a secondary risk today is localized flash
flooding with urban areas most at risk. Latest HREF ensemble QPF PMM
values indicate total rainfall through tonight between 0.5 to 1.5
inches for a large portion of the area, with some isolated areas
around 2 inches possible.

Any lingering showers and storms around midnight tonight are
expected to gradually diminish thereafter per the latest suite of
CAMs. The bulk of the forcing with the front will remain to our
south and east on Sunday, but a few isolated showers and storms
can't be ruled out with a mid-level trough continuing to exit the
area. Theta-e values will be lower, and with a lack of deep-layer
shear and weaker low-level lapse rates, strong storms are not
anticipated. Temperatures on Sunday will be more seasonal compared
to the last few days, with highs warming to the lower to middle
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Zonal flow aloft will be the norm for next week, which will help
maintain seasonable July temperatures and humidity levels. Next week
will continue to have periodic chances of showers and storms,
particularly for Tuesday through Friday, as a series of mid-level
shortwaves look to sweep through the area, but widespread rainfall
is not anticipated. Confidence remains generally low this far out on
the timing of these systems with 20-40% chances of showers and
storms per the NBM. Despite the lower confidence, there are some
signals in the various extended machine learning output for the
potential for isolated strong to severe storms Tuesday through
Friday, so something to be mindful of as we go through the upcoming
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Increasing chances of thunderstorms remain on tap for this
afternoon as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. Brief
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible under the heavier
downpours, with visibilities as low as 2SM possible.
Additionally, some gusty and erratic winds are possible with
some of the stronger thunderstorms. A cold front will sweep
through this evening into tonight, leading to yet another round
of showers and thunderstorms, with more potential for locally
strong wind gusts. Not only will winds turn more northwesterly
behind the front, but cooler air will help support lowering
ceilings down to at least MVFR, if not IFR, with confidence in
IFR cigs highest near DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
412 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-060915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
412 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early
tonight. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms
remains in place over most of the outlook area, with the primary
threats being isolated damaging winds and torrential downpours
which could lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

There are occasional chances for thunderstorms through next week,
but it is too early to assess the risk for severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Uttech

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