Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
646 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southeast winds continue this afternoon before a line
  of severe thunderstorms sweeps through the local area from
  southwest to northeast this evening

- We continue to be under an Enhanced to Moderate Risk (levels
  3/4 out of 5) for severe weather, mainly for this evening,
  with damaging straight-line winds of up to 80+ MPH and
  embedded tornadoes being the main threats

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect between 1 PM and 8 PM
  today (through 10 PM tonight for northwest IL), along with a
  Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon through 1 AM Saturday
  area-wide, with peak gusts up to 50 MPH possible

- Strong winds are possible again late tonight and Saturday

- Blustery and cooler Sunday, warming back up for Monday and
  Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Today is the day of our well-advertised (and first of the year)
severe weather event, along with strong winds ahead of a line of
severe storms that's expected to move through the area this evening.
This will all be supported by an approaching, deep area of low
pressure, currently situated along the northern KS/southern NE
border. This is associated with a deep longwave upper-level trough
over the western half of the CONUS, with our region located under
the left-exit region of a 100+ kt upper-level jet. This area of low
pressure is expected to be impressively strong, with a central
pressure on the order of 975 mb at its lowest. This would be at the
bottom of the ECMWF ensemble climatological percentiles for MSLP!
Ahead of the low, a tight pressure gradient is expected to develop
along with strong boundary-layer heating will not only make for an
impressive set up for severe storms, but also strong winds and high
risk for fire spread. We will discuss the fire weather risk more in
the Fire Weather section below, but let's break down the wind and
severe storm threat:

* STRONG WINDS:

A tight pressure gradient and fairly deep boundary layer mixing due
to some impressive warm air advection will lead to strong
southeasterly winds, with gusts between 40 to 50 MPH expected across
the area. Indeed, the latest HREF ensemble mean for wind gusts pegs
this range for winds over the area before the line of convection
moves through the area this evening. Given the strength of the
winds, we will continue a Wind Advisory area-wide, valid from 1 PM
this afternoon through 1 AM tonight. It does appear that a nocturnal
southerly low-level jet (LLJ) of 50-60 kts is expected to develop
over our region after the line of storms moves through, so winds
aren't expected to drop off entirely tonight. In fact, we could even
see a re-intensification of the winds late tonight and into the day
Saturday, when another Wind Advisory could possibly be needed,
especially across our southeast where boundary layer mixing will be
deepest.

* SEVERE WEATHER:

CAM guidance remain in good agreement in progging a line of severe
convection ahead of the mid-level shortwave impulse to move through
our forecast area mainly for this evening, although there remains
some slight uncertainty on the exact timing of the onset (6 or 7 PM
tonight), but confidence remains high for an evening severe weather
event. Concurrent with the squall line is the aforementioned LLJ,
which should support deep-layer shear of 50 to 60 knots. Although
instability appears to be fairly modest (500 to 1500 J/kg of surface-
based CAPE per 14.12z HREF ensemble), the high levels of shear and
dry atmosphere ahead of the squall line should help generate
downward momentum of air-cooled air via downdraft CAPE, leading to
strong support for damaging straight-lined winds of 60-80+ MPH!
Additionally, embedded tornadoes are possible within this squall
line, likely in the form of QLCS mesovortex tornadoes, given strong
0-3 km shear of 40-50 knots. Shear vectors are oriented more from
south to north, so we can't rule out some tornadoes on the northern
side of the line where convective elements are expected to arc to
the west. One uncertainty is the degree of moisture return in the
wake of the dry conditions this afternoon. As of 2 PM this
afternoon, dew points over the area ranged from the middle 40s south
to the lower 50s north. Any locations where recovered dew points
into the lower 50s would have a better chance for tornadogenesis.
Mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 degree C/km could also support
some larger hail, although this is more of a secondary threat.

One concerning factor with this line of storms is also the potential
for some quick storm motions, with speeds in excess of 60 MPH! This
means that conditions will deteriorate very quickly as the storms
approach, so take any warnings that are issued seriously and take
shelter quickly!

Very warm conditions have also developed this afternoon, with 850 mb
temperatures 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for this time
of the year, ushered in on the strong southeasterly winds, with 2 PM
temperatures warming to the upper 70s to lower 80s before the line
of storms moves through. These have already either hit or tied
record daily high temperatures for today!

Once the line of storms quickly moves off to the northeast this
evening/tonight, there will be a relative lull in wind speeds
tonight, despite our region remaining within the tight pressure
gradient of the surface low. Winds tonight could still range between
30 to 40 MPH, with perhaps another bout of winds during the daylight
hours Saturday. We will have to keep a close eye on the forecast for
another day of Wind Advisory-level wind gusts, especially across our
southeast where there will be a bit deeper mixing/momentum
transport.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

The second half of the weekend will be blustery/cooler in the wake
of the departing storm system.

We'll see temperatures quickly moderate back well above normal early
next week ahead of our next potential storm system slated for the
middle of next week. There is some signal in ensemble and
deterministic guidance of potentially another strong March storm
system. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Powerful storm system in the central Plains will move into the
western Great Lakes through Saturday. Numerous thunderstorms,
some severe with damaging winds to 60 kts, will impact the taf
sites through 05z/15. Meanwhile, strong gradient winds from the
southwest/west gusting to 30-40 kts will continue through
Saturday. MVFR cigs can be expected on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Very windy conditions continue this afternoon into the early evening
hours ahead of the main line of storms that is expected to move
through the area this evening. These winds, combined with dry fuels
and low relative humidities, will result in widespread critical fire
weather conditions and a high risk of rapid fire spread. Already
this afternoon, we're seeing relative humidities as of 2 PM falling
into the 25 to 35 percent range, along with southeast winds gusting
between 35 to 45 MPH for most locations! GFDI values this afternoon
into the early evening hours ahead of the squall line will increase
to very high to even some extreme values, making any fires that
start this afternoon liable to spread very quickly. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect area wide through 8 PM this evening,
except for locations in northwest Illinois where we have extended
the end time for the Red Flag Warning through 10 PM. Outdoor burning
is strongly discouraged!

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Record highs March 14

Burlington.....79 in 2012
Cedar Rapids...75 in 2012 and previous years
Dubuque........75 in 2012
Moline.........78 in 2012

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042-051>054-
     063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ015-
     024>026-034-035.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002-007-009-
     015>018-024>026-034-035.
     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-016>018.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...McClure/Schultz
AVIATION...Haase
FIRE WEATHER...Schultz
CLIMATE...McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
256 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-152000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
256 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon and evening
across the area, as southerly winds are expected to gust between
40 to 50 mph. These strong winds combined with warm temperatures
will also lead to critical fire weather, and as a result, a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect through 8 PM this evening, except
for areas of northwest Illinois where the Red Flag Warning is now
in effect through 10 PM tonight. Any fires that start will have
the potential to spread quickly in these conditions, and therefore
outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move quickly
northeast across the outlook area between 6 pm and 11 pm this
evening. The storms will be moving very fast at speeds of up to 60
mph, meaning conditions will deteriorate quickly as the storms
approach. The primary threats are damaging winds, potentially in
excess of 80 mph, and a few embedded tornadoes within the line.
Large hail is also possible. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed our entire area in at least a level 3 of 5 risk for severe
weather, with our southwestern half of the area under a level 4 of
5 risk.

Another round of strong winds is likely late tonight, with gusts
of 40 to 50 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Gusty southwest winds will linger Saturday morning, with gusts of
40 to 50 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION THIS EVENING:

To the northeast at 60 mph.

JTS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
916 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Central City            42.21N 91.52W
03/14/2025                   Linn               IA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            A 12 foot tree uprooted.

&&

Haase

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
922 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Macomb                  40.47N 90.68W
03/14/2025                   McDonough          IL   Public

            Sheriff department reported multiple
            powerlines down throughout the county.

0905 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Central City            42.21N 91.52W
03/14/2025                   Linn               IA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            A 12 foot tree uprooted.

0905 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Lowden                  41.86N 90.92W
03/14/2025  M60 MPH          Cedar              IA   CO-OP Observer

0855 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SW Adair              40.38N 90.56W
03/14/2025  E65 MPH          McDonough          IL   Public

            Public report of 60 to 70 MPH wind gusts.
            Some small branches reported down.

0853 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Manchester          42.48N 91.47W
03/14/2025  E65 MPH          Delaware           IA   Trained Spotter

0840 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Bald Bluff          41.02N 90.81W
03/14/2025  E60 MPH          Henderson          IL   Trained Spotter

            Corrects time of occurrence for previous
            tstm wnd gst report from 2 E Bald Bluff.
            Estimated storm outflow gust.

0831 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SE Blandinsville      40.52N 90.81W
03/14/2025  M81 MPH          McDonough          IL   Trained Spotter

0821 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Kingston            40.99N 91.06W
03/14/2025  M77 MPH          Des Moines         IA   Public

            Branches down.

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WSW Mount Union       41.03N 91.45W
03/14/2025  E70 MPH          Henry              IA   Trained Spotter

0812 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     cedar Rapids Municipal  41.90N 91.70W
03/14/2025  M79 MPH          Linn               IA   Other Federal

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from
            cedar Rapids Municipal Airport. Report from
            the control tower.

0806 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Burlington Regional Air 40.79N 91.13W
03/14/2025  M62 MPH          Des Moines         IA   Public

            ASOS equipment.

0805 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNE Ainsworth         41.31N 91.54W
03/14/2025  M62 MPH          Washington         IA   Trained Spotter

0801 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ENE Burlington        40.81N 91.10W
03/14/2025  M75 MPH          Des Moines         IA   Trained Spotter

            Measured on the riverfront and Main street.

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Washington              41.30N 91.69W
03/14/2025  M78 MPH          Washington         IA   Emergency Mngr

            Measured at the Washington County EOC.

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Washington Airport  41.27N 91.67W
03/14/2025  M67 MPH          Washington         IA   AWOS

            AWOS station KAWG Washington Arpt.

0753 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Brighton                41.17N 91.82W
03/14/2025                   Washington         IA   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reporting power poles down in
            Brighton Iowa.

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Marengo             41.79N 92.04W
03/14/2025  M65 MPH          Iowa               IA   Public

0748 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Oakland Mills       40.97N 91.62W
03/14/2025  M77 MPH          Henry              IA   Trained Spotter

            Wind equipment measurement.

0745 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Washington          41.34N 91.70W
03/14/2025  M74 MPH          Washington         IA   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported a measured 74 mph wind gust
            north of Washington on G36.

0737 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 W Nauvoo              40.56N 91.42W
03/14/2025  M63 MPH          Lee                IA   Public

0734 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Stockport           40.84N 91.83W
03/14/2025  M61 MPH          Van Buren          IA   Public

            EM reported a 61 mph wind gust just south of
            Stockport.

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SE Fairfield Municipa 41.03N 91.97W
03/14/2025  M60 MPH          Jefferson          IA   AWOS

            AWOS station KFFL Fairfield Arpt.

0710 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Medill              40.43N 91.78W
03/14/2025  E60 MPH          Clark              MO   Law Enforcement

            Relay of a 55 to 60 MPH thunderstorm wind
            gust.

&&

Haase

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
927 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WSW Newhall           41.96N 92.03W
03/14/2025  M60 MPH          Benton             IA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station RVHI4 Us-30 At Us-218.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
943 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Cambridge               41.30N 90.20W
03/14/2025  M70 MPH          Henry              IL   Trained Spotter

&&

Haase

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
951 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Clinton           41.86N 90.19W
03/14/2025  M75 MPH          Clinton            IA   Trained Spotter

&&

Haase