Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
230 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler air from the overnight storms should keep peak heat
  indices in the 95 to 100 range this afternoon for areas
  along/north of I-80.

- Another round of strong to severe storms are possible late
  tonight into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves into the
  area.

- Pattern change mid to late week to usher in cooler, more
  seasonable and drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Based on radar trends, the severe storm complex should reach the
Mississippi around sunrise but will be in a decaying/weakening mode.
Remnants of storm complex should exit the far east/southeast by mid-
morning.

The cold pool from the complex should result in a respectable amount
of clouds across the area through at least late morning before
clearing occurs.

The overall temperature situation should be similar to yesterday.
Rain cooled air should keep areas along/north of the I-80 corridor a
tad cooler today with peak afternoon heat indices of 95-100.
Resurgent moisture during the afternoon in the southern parts of the
area should produce peak heat indices 100-105 in the areas where the
current heat headlines are located.

Interestingly, the HRRR model brings in a dew point front during the
afternoon for areas north of Highway 30. If dew points drop into the
mid 60s as projected, then peak afternoon heat indices in these
areas may only be 90-95.

The question for this afternoon is whether or not enough recovery
occurs to allow some diurnal convection to occur. The very short
term models range from dry to isolated/scattered convection. The key
will be whether or not the convective temperature is reached. The
morning sounding will provide key information regarding this.
Instinct says 90% of the area will probably remain dry this
afternoon/early evening.

If diurnal convection develops during the afternoon, it will
dissipate shortly after sunset. The next nocturnal storm complex
will move through Iowa after midnight. Interestingly, the models
suggest the main push for these storms is in central Iowa.
Conceptually the big picture agrees with this scenario with the
better instability over the western half of Iowa.

However, the front moving into the area will result in showers and
thunderstorms across eastern Iowa and areas east of the Mississippi
given the strong forcing along the front and copious amounts of
moisture in the atmosphere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Showers and thunderstorms along with not as hot temps may be in
line for Wed in a mid week pattern flux and the beginning of a
transition to steering northwesterlies acrs the north central
CONUS. But this may bring some heavy rain and possible severe
weather along the associated cold front push on Wed. Veering
boundary layer profiles to the northeast Wed night to really
begin the cooler temp draw, with lows by Thu morning in the
lower 60s or even some upper 50s.

Thursday through Sunday...The period of weather most of us have been
waiting for and a reprieve from the humidity soup. Northwest flow and
re-enforicng rounds of GRT LKS LLVL ridging to make for a stretch of
seasonably pleasant weather, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
and overnight low temps in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Bow echo of strong to severe storms will sweep through eastern
Iowa and northern Illinois by 14z/29. Potential for gusts to 50
knots with IFR conditions across eastern Iowa through 10z/29.
After 14z/29 diurnal heating may result in 10-20% coverage of
storms during the afternoon. Density altitudes may approach or
exceed 3 kft 18z/29 through 01z/30. Another bow echo of strong
to severe storms is expected across eastern Iowa after 06z/30.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ025-026-034-035.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ009-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
859 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-291300-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
859 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move across portions of
the area from the northwest after midnight tonight. There is a
Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe weather generally
along and north of Highway 30 in Iowa. Elsewhere there is either a
marginal (1 of 5) or slight (2 of 5) risk. Damaging winds and
spin-up tornadoes will be the primary threats with tonight's
storms.

Some local tributary rivers are experiencing flooding from recent
heavy rainfall. Please see the latest Flood Statements and Flood
Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

More rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Outlook Area Tuesday through Wednesday. Damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall producing flooding will be possible both days. The
entire Outlook Area is in a Marginal(level 1 out of 5)Risk for
severe weather on Tuesday.

Depending on storms and lingering clouds, heat index values of
100 to 110 degrees will be possible Tuesday afternoon. There is a
Heat Advisory in effect Tuesday afternoon for areas generally
south of Interstate 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

12

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
205 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Independence       42.49N 91.87W
07/29/2025                   Buchanan           IA   Public

            Large tree down. Many 1-3 inch diameter
            branches down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
219 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Independence        42.47N 91.88W
07/29/2025                   Buchanan           IA   Public

            Large trees uprooted.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
247 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Fairview            42.07N 91.34W
07/29/2025  M74 MPH          Jones              IA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station RCRI4 Anamosa.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
251 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Vinton              42.09N 92.03W
07/29/2025  M61 MPH          Benton             IA   Public

            PWS.

&&

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