Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

697 
WWUS83 KDVN 141549
RFWDVN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1049 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected This Afternoon and
Early Evening...

.The combination of strong southerly winds, low relative
humidity, and dry fuels will result in critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and early evening before a line of
severe storms arrive. If a fire were to start, it would likely 
spread quickly and be difficult to extinguish. As a result, any 
outdoor burning is not recommended.

ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018-150100-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FW.W.0003.250314T1800Z-250315T0300Z/
Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-
1049 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN IOWA, FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, Whiteside, Henry
  IL, Bureau and Putnam.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 35 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Upper 70s and lower 80s.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015-024>026-
034-035-MOZ009-010-150100-
/O.CON.KDVN.FW.W.0003.250314T1800Z-250315T0100Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1049 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN IOWA, FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Scotland, Clark, Rock Island, Mercer, Henderson,
  Warren, Hancock, McDonough, Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Benton,
  Linn, Jones, Jackson, Iowa, Johnson, Cedar, Clinton, Muscatine,  
  Scott, Keokuk, Washington, Louisa, Jefferson, Henry IA, Des 
  Moines, Van Buren and Lee.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 30 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Upper 70s and lower 80s.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

JTS

370 
WWUS83 KDVN 150057
RFWDVN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
757 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions In Illinois This Evening...

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015-024>026-
034-035-MOZ009-010-150200-
/O.EXP.KDVN.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0100Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
757 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN IOWA, FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI, AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

Incoming rainfall and increasing humidity will leading to
improving fire weather conditions, therefore the Red Flag Warning
will be allowed to expire at 8PM.

$$

ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018-150300-
/O.CON.KDVN.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0300Z/
Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-
757 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN IOWA,
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 001 Jo Daviess, Fire Weather 
  Zone 002 Stephenson, Fire Weather Zone 007 Carroll, Fire 
  Weather Zone 009 Whiteside, Fire Weather Zone 016 Henry IL, 
  Fire Weather Zone 017 Bureau and Fire Weather Zone 018 Putnam.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 35 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Upper 70s and lower 80s.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1144 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...Updated for 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions on Friday with gusts up to 50 MPH(Wind
  Advisory in effect).

- Warm temperatures and windy conditions will lead to critical
  fire weather conditions across the area and a Fire Weather
  Watch is also in effect.

- Late Friday afternoon and especially Friday evening, severe
  thunderstorms are expected. Damaging winds up to 80 mph and a
  few tornadoes are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction
  Center has an Enhanced to Moderate Risk (level 3/4 out of 5)
  across the area.

- Strong winds are possible again on Saturday.

- It will be blustery and colder Sunday with a warmup for Monday
  and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

A deep trough is forecast to move from the Rocky Mountains tonight
and into the Plains during the day on Friday. A jet streak rounding
the base of the trough will lead to a rapidly deepening 500 MB
closed low as it rapidly lifts northeastward through the day and it
moves into southern Minnesota by 12 UTC on Saturday. The surface low
will follow a nearly identical storm track. The pressure gradient
will tighten through the day leading to an increase in winds across
the area.

Near Record Temperatures/Winds/Fire Weather:

Eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri will be
in the warm sector with this storm system through the day on Friday.
High temperatures will be in the mid 70s along the Highway 20
corridor to the lower 80s along and south of of a Fairfield to
Galesburg line. These are near record high temperatures for this
date (see the Climate section below for more).

The wind and fire weather concerns are closely tied together. There
is a wind advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM Saturday and a Fire
Weather Watch from 1 PM Friday to 8 PM Friday. The wind field will
steadily intensify through the day on Friday with a peak on Friday
night. 850 MB winds will be near 40 knots through 18 UTC but cool
morning temperatures will limit the gust potential. After 18 UTC
winds will rapidly increase after that with gusts over 40 MPH
through the afternoon. Winds at the top of the mixed layer by 00 UTC
on Saturday are in the 55 to 60 knots time frame with slightly
stronger winds during the evening hours with conceptual pattern of a
possible "sting jet". HREF guidance was showing a 70% chance of wind
gusts over 50 MPH late Friday afternoon and into the evening.  The
current advisory still looks to be on track but this may need to be
upgraded to a warning in later shifts as winds strengthen on Friday
into Friday night.

Models have been showing deeper mix and rapidly lowering relative
humidities during the afternoon. The HRRR appears to be an extreme
outlier with relative humidity's dropping into the 20s. For dew
points decided to do a blend of high resolution guidance to better
account for the potential for lower relative humidities. For these
reasons and very strong winds have decided to issue a Fire Weather
Watch for the entire forecast for Friday afternoon and early
evening.

Severe  Potential:

Little has changed with the severe weather potential for Friday. The
background kinematic fields are very strong with gradient winds near
severe wind criteria during the evening hours. Intense deep layer
ascent is forecast to overspread the area in the 21 to 00 UTC time
frame Friday into Friday night. This will lead to storms developing
and moving into the area during this time frame. There continues to
be differences between the forecast models on the timing but the
best timing for severe thunderstorms moving into the area in the 5
PM to 11 PM timeframe. Based on forecast soundings, thunderstorms
may be able to tap into 70 knot winds higher up in the sounding
profiles via downdrafts and cold pool intensification. Soundings
have also been showing an inverted-V profile further increasing the
idea of damaging straighltline winds across the area.

There is the potential for embedded tornadoes as this line of storms
moves across the area with such strong 0 to 3 km shear increasing to
50 to 70 knots in the 00 to 03 UTC timeframe. Hodographs show strong
cyclonic curvature but lower dewpoints and the inverted V soundings
raising the LCL heights through the event. However model soundings
do show some lowering of the LCLs as the line approaches. The
tornado threat will be maximized where the 0 to 3 km shear vectors
are perpendicular to the orientation of the squall line, although
the magnitude is so strong it will be possible throughout the line.
So tornadoes are a threat but secondary, or lower confidence, to the
straighltline winds. Also, these storms will be moving very fast to
the northeast at speeds near 60 MPH. These will lead to conditions
deteriorating quickly. This may also lead to a narrow window for
severe as small as 3 to 4 hours as these storms move across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

The 500 MB low will remain in the Upper Midwest into Sunday morning.
Temperatures will be significantly colder on Saturday with high
temperatures in the area in the 50s. Additionally. winds on Saturday
morning will be very strong with gusts approaching 50 MPH favored
especially in our northwest Illinois counties. We will continue to
monitor this for a wind headline, including possibly a warning, but
wanted to keep the headlines simple through Friday night with
everything going on in the Short term portion of the forecast.

Saturday night, as the closed low beings to move eastward into
Michigan, a deformation band of precipitation is forecast to move
across the area. If precipitation occurs, it will start as rain but
changeover to snow during Saturday evening. Precipitation is
expected to come to an end prior to daybreak Sunday. Low
temperatures on Sunday morning will be in the 20s to lower 30s.
Temperatures have warmed slight on Sunday with highs in the mid 40s
to lower 50s. Sunday will be breezy with gusts up to 30 MPH.

After Sunday, a gradual warm up will occur as high pressure builds
into the Plains once again. Another trough is forecast to move into
the Plains next week but there continues to be about a 24 hour
difference so there is the potential for precipitation Tuesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

VFR conditions expected into Friday afternoon. LLWS remains in for
the overnight with ESE surface winds 8-12 kt and winds from SSE
ramping up to around 40 kt. The LLWS will abate by 14z as surface
winds increase with mixing. Elevated moisture advection and
instability ahead of a lifting warm front will bring a slight
chance (20%) for a stray shower or weak storm after 08z through
12z mainly north of I-80. Friday afternoon into early evening
will feature windy conditions, with gusts to at least 40 kt and
potentially higher with 00z HREF giving 50-70% probabilities for
gusts to 45 kt especially along and south of I-80 ahead of a very
deep low pressure system. This will serve as the focus for a line
of strong to severe storms sweeping through the TAF sites Friday
evening with the primary threat for wind gusts being 50-65+ kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Record highs March 13

Burlington.....77 in 2007 and previous years
Cedar Rapids...74 in 2007
Dubuque........71 in 2007
Moline.........77 in 2007

Record highs March 14

Burlington.....79 in 2012
Cedar Rapids...75 in 2012 and previous years
Dubuque........75 in 2012
Moline.........78 in 2012

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-
     098-099.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-
     002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for MOZ009-010.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-
     010.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
712 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141100-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
712 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Friday afternoon and
evening, as southerly winds are expected to gust between 40 to 50
mph. These strong winds combined with warm temperatures will also
lead to critical fire danger. Any fires would have the potential
to spread quickly in these conditions, and therefore outdoor
burning is strongly discouraged. A Fire Weather Watch remains in
effect for Friday afternoon and evening.

A line of severe thunderstorms is likely to move quickly northeast
across the Outlook area between 5 pm and 11 pm on Friday. The
primary threats are damaging winds, potentially in excess of 70
mph, and a few tornadoes. Large hail is also possible. The Storm
Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a level 3 or level
4 severe risk, out of 5.

Another round of strong winds is likely late Friday night through
Saturday morning, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

12