Tornado Warning 4, NWS Detroit, MI

353 
WWUS53 KDTX 160406
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1206 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

MIC145-160500-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250516T0500Z/
Saginaw MI-
1206 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR SAGINAW
COUNTY...

At 1206 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near St. Charles, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  St. Charles around 1210 AM EDT.
  Bridgeport around 1220 AM EDT.
  Frankenmuth and Birch Run around 1225 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Brant,
Nelson, Garfield, Arthur, Burt, Buena Vista Township, Gera, Layton
Corners, Swan Creek, and Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 8370 4322 8393 4313 8393 4313 8423
      4325 8427 4347 8430 4345 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 260DEG 49KT 4326 8420 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

KDK

768 
WWUS53 KDTX 160419
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1219 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

MIC145-160500-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250516T0500Z/
Saginaw MI-
1219 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 1219 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Montrose, or 7 miles north of New Lothrop, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Frankenmuth and Birch Run around 1225 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Shiawassee National Wildlife Refuge, Fosters, Arthur, Burt, Buena
Vista Township, Gera, Shields, and Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 8370 4322 8393 4319 8393 4323 8402
      4346 8409 4345 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 226DEG 50KT 4322 8393 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

KDK

797 
WWUS53 KDTX 160435 RRA
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1235 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

MIC145-160500-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250516T0500Z/
Saginaw MI-
1235 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL SAGINAW COUNTY...

At 1235 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Frankenmuth, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Saginaw County, including the following locations...
Buena Vista Township, Gera, Arthur, and Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 8370 4322 8383 4346 8396 4345 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 229DEG 36KT 4333 8370 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

KDK

932 
WWUS53 KDTX 160441
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1241 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

MIC145-160451-
/O.CAN.KDTX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250516T0500Z/
Saginaw MI-
1241 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SAGINAW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been 
cancelled. However, damaging winds remain likely and a Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for southeastern
Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 8370 4322 8383 4346 8396 4345 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 268DEG 42KT 4333 8360 

$$

KDK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
703 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clusters of severe thundestorms expected 10pm and 3am tonight.
  Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, with a low
  chance of a few tornadoes.

- Warm again on Friday with another round of showers and
  thunderstorms developing late Friday evening/Friday night. Some of
  these storms will also be strong to marginally severe.

- Cooler conditions this weekend, with westerly wind gusts 30-40 mph
  on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

The surface warm front is inbound from the Ohio border region this
evening marked by a southerly wind shift and an uptick in T/Td,
along with broken coverage of invigorated cumulus. Elevated portions
of the warm front supported a few late afternoon showers near DTW
which have since dissipated. The front now outlines the northern
fringe of the instability axis and is expected to merge with lake
breeze boundaries while moving toward the I69 corridor by midnight
as the storm complex arrives from the west. The storms will affect
all terminals mainly from 04-06Z while the strongest activity is
favored to occur along and south of the warm front mainly from PTK
and through the DTW corridor. All severe thunderstorm hazards are
possible but damaging wind is the primary hazard given the upscale
growth of storms into linear segments/clusters this far east. VFR
conditions move in post cold front late tonight through Friday as
surface Td drops back into the 50s as a measure of decreased
potential for low clouds and shallow cumulus Friday afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms
is on schedule to reach the DTW terminal area during the 04-06Z time
window.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less toward midnight through sunrise
  the low through Friday.

* High for thunderstorms tonight mainly 04-06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

DISCUSSION...

Moderate instability has built up across southeast Michigan with
MLcapes aoa 1500 J/kg with sbcapes 2000-3000 J/kg as of 18z. None-
the-less, just a modest CU field around as warm/dry mid levels cap
activity for now. Severe thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
this evening with arrival of the height falls and increasing wind
fields, but bulk of thunderstorm activity looks to be impacting
southeast Michigan around midnight. With the southeast winds, a
stabilizing marine influence off of Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair looks
to be coming into play, but an enhanced low level
temperature/instability gradient will set up across the western half
of the CWA (along/west of US-23). These locations stand the best
chance of activity remaining surface based, and thus the greatest
potential for damaging wind gusts with a chance of tornadoes as 0-1
KM bulk shear resides in the 25 to 30 knot range.  With increasing
southwest low level jet (50+ knots) and steep mid level lapses,
large hail will be a concern as well, as cape (1500+ J/kg) is
maximized around the freezing level to -20 C.  Progressive nature of
activity will limit flood threat, but urban areas (Wayne county) are
not completely out of the woods, as strong to severe thunderstorms
could drop a quick 1.5-2 inches in an hour in localized spots, as PW
values peak around 1.75 inches. Majority of hi-res solutions all
generally indicating a broken to near solid line of
showers/thunderstorms rolling through, ending 2-4 AM.

With the large 500 MB low center still back across the Western Great
Lakes on Friday, deep southwest flow will promote another warm day,
as 850 MB temps around 15 C will be supportive of high temperatures
in the low to mid 80s. A spoke of energy/shortwave looks to be
rotating around and tracking through southeast Michigan around
midnight once again. Confidence is high in another round of showers
and thunderstorms developing late Friday evening/night as the healthy
cold front tracks through. Although instability parameters are less
than this evening, wind fields/bulk shear and capes in 1000-2000 J/kg
range seem supportive of at least a marginal risk of severe storms.

Cooler and breezy on Saturday, as surface low (992-994 MB) tracks
through the northern Great Lakes. Pretty good cold advection with
850 MB temps lowering into the mid single numbers. Steepening low
level lapse rates during the day generates some modest cape, which
may touch of isolated-scattered showers. Otherwise, local
probabilistic guidance suggests wind gusts of 30-40 MPH during the
day.

Weak shortwave riding for Sunday, but there is already another
shortwave/re-enforcing shot of cold air to track through the Great
Lakes region for Sunday night. Dry air and northwest confluent flow
looks to keep us dry to start the work week. Another large low
pressure system to develop over the Central Plains, but still
uncertainty with the magnitude and areal extent during the mid week
period, which will impact the timing of showers returning to
southeast Michigan.

MARINE...

Light E/SE flow continues across the region this afternoon-evening
though funneling down the Saginaw Bay has allowed for local
enhancement towards 15kts. A warm front tied to strong northern
Plains low pressure is currently lifting out of the Ohio Valley
towards the Great Lakes this afternoon. A line of strong/severe
thunderstorms is expected to develop over the western Great Lakes
and push through our area late evening-early tonight (~10p-3a). All
hazards (strong winds, hail, waterspouts) are in play though wind
gusts greater than 40kts and hail above a half inch are the main
threats. Southerly winds up to 15-20kts develop post front for
Friday as the low tracks over Lake Superior. This system then sweeps
a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Friday evening-
early Saturday night generating another line of showers and
thunderstorms- a few of which could be severe (wind and hail
hazards). Moderate west-southwest winds follow Saturday with the
strongest winds (20-30kts) expected over the southern half of the
region where the gradient is strongest. Small craft advisories are
likely needed for most if not all nearshore waters as a result. Low
fully departs Sunday shifting winds to the northwest. Gusts peak
near 20kts during the day before weakening overnight as weak high
pressure slides overhead.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
228 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-161200-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
228 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Gradually increasing chance of thunderstorms this evening, with
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms expected to track through
the region between 10 PM and 3 AM tonight. The primary threats are
large hail (1.5" in diameter) and damaging winds (up to 70 mph),
with a chance of a few tornadoes, particularly along and west of US
23. Storm motion will be to the northeast at 45 mph. The fast
movement of the storms will limit flood threat, but urban/low lying
areas still could see minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop Friday evening/night, as a cold front tracks
through the area. Breezy and cooler conditions will settle in for
Saturday, with westerly gusts of 30 to 40 mph during the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Dispatchers please notify your emergency managers immediately.
Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-161200-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
228 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Gradually increasing chance of thunderstorms this evening, with
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms expected to track through
the region between 10 PM and 3 AM tonight. The primary threats are
large hail (1.5" in diameter) and damaging winds (50 knots).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop Friday evening/night, as a cold front tracks
through the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

SF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1052 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

MIZ047-048-053-060-160345-
Bay MI-Shiawassee MI-Saginaw MI-Midland MI-
1052 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY APPROACHING BAY...SAGINAW...SHIAWASSEE AND
MIDLAND COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING...

At 1050 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong to severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles east of Luther to
near Stanton to near Middleville. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph with higher gusts possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and damage
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pleasant Valley around 1120 PM EDT.
  Oil City around 1125 PM EDT.
  Coleman around 1130 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Carrollton,
Garfield, Arthur, Fenmore, Crump, Buena Vista Township, Gera,
Indiantown, Bombay, and Hemlock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4381 8461 4383 8417 4400 8417 4400 8405
      4391 8404 4391 8391 4376 8395 4377 8396
      4367 8391 4360 8370 4322 8370 4322 8393
      4278 8393 4277 8436 4347 8437 4347 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 250DEG 45KT 4406 8554 4332 8517 4265 8546

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BT