Gale Warning 21, NWS Detroit, MI

855 
WHUS73 KDTX 181830
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

LHZ421-422-441-442-191500-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0075.251019T1200Z-251019T1900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.251019T1900Z-251020T0400Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT
SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds 
  up to 26 knots from the south with gusts up to 32 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 5 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect 
  sustained winds up to 28 knots from the northwest with gusts 
  up to 37 knots. The largest significant waves will be 7 feet 
  with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet.

* WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to 
  Inner Saginaw Bay, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI and Harbor 
  Beach to Port Sanilac MI.

* WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are 
  expected around 10 AM EDT Sunday with the largest waves 
  expected around 2 PM EDT Sunday. During the Gale Warning, the 
  maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EDT Sunday with the 
  largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Sunday. During the 
  Gale Watch, the maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EDT 
  Sunday with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-191500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.251019T1800Z-251020T0600Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 33 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 43 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  17 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-463-191500-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.251019T1200Z-251020T0600Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 31 knots from the 
  southeast Sunday morning, becoming west Sunday afternoon with 
  gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant waves will be 11 
  feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 
  5NM off shore, Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach 
  beyond 5NM Off Shore and Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port 
  Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ443-191500-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0075.251019T0900Z-251020T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO
5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 27 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 3 feet on Lake St. Clair and 4 feet with a 
  potential maximum wave height of 5 feet on the Michigan Waters 
  of Lake Erie and far southern Lake Huron.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair. In Lake Erie, Michigan Waters of Lake 
  Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI. In Lake Huron, Port 
  Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 AM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 12 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

102 
WHUS73 KDTX 190813
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
413 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

LHZ421-422-441-442-192100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0075.251019T1200Z-251019T1900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.251019T1900Z-251020T0400Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
413 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained winds 
  up to 17 knots from the west with gusts up to 31 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Gale Warning, expect 
  sustained winds up to 23 knots from the northwest with gusts 
  up to 34 knots. The largest significant waves will be 7 feet 
  with a potential maximum wave height of 10 feet.

* WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to 
  Inner Saginaw Bay, Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to 
  Bay Port MI, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI and Harbor Beach 
  to Port Sanilac MI.

* WHEN...During the Small Craft Advisory, the maximum winds are 
  expected around 9 AM EDT Sunday with the largest waves 
  expected around 11 AM EDT Sunday. During the Gale Warning, the 
  maximum winds are expected around 6 PM EDT Sunday with the 
  largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-192100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.251019T1800Z-251020T0600Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
413 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 31 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  19 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 6 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-463-192100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.251019T1200Z-251020T0600Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
413 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 37 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  17 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 
  5NM off shore, Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach 
  beyond 5NM Off Shore and Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port 
  Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 6 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ443-192100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0075.251019T0900Z-251020T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
413 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 feet.

* WHERE...In Lake St Clair, Lake St Clair. In Lake Erie, 
  Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape 
  MI. In Lake Huron, Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 AM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

331 
WHUS73 KDTX 191955
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
355 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

LHZ361-362-200600-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-251020T0600Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
355 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 39 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  17 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-463-200600-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-251020T0600Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
355 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 38 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  16 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 
  5NM off shore, Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach 
  beyond 5NM Off Shore and Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port 
  Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-441-442-200400-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-251020T0400Z/
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
355 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 23 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 33 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to 
  Inner Saginaw Bay, Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to 
  Bay Port MI, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI and Harbor Beach 
  to Port Sanilac MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 11 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ443-200900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-251020T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
355 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 22 knots from the 
  northwest with gusts up to 34 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...In Lake St Clair, Lake St Clair. In Lake Erie, 
  Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape 
  MI. In Lake Huron, Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 9 PM EDT Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
627 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall totals 1 to 2 inches expected through Sunday.
  A narrow band of greater than two inches will be possible, mainly
  towards the Tri-Cities. Record setting daily rainfall likely on
  Sunday at Flint and Saginaw.

- Marginal Risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening and late
  tonight. Isolated damaging winds will the main threat.

- Northwest winds gusts of 35-45 mph expected Sunday afternoon into
  Sunday evening.

- Rain showers expected Monday night into Tuesday along with breezy conditions
  once again with even colder air settling into the region mid to
  late week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Seasonably warm and moist conditions exist today under a modestly
gusty southerly wind. A narrow axis of higher moisture will ease
into the region during the afternoon and evening hours. This will
provide the focus for some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Se Mi. Confidence in occurrence at any one
location remains low given limited overall coverage and duration.
Otherwise, VFR through the evening within a mix of higher based
diurnal cu and thicker mid cloud. A widespread region of rain
expands north into the region ahead of a low pressure system
tonight. High probability of moderate intensity rain with
accompanying reduction of cigs at MBS/FNT/PTK given the trajectory,
with the Detroit corridor along the eastern fringe of this initial
surge. Potential for some embedded thunderstorms with this activity.
Arrival of the low directly across the area by mid morning Sunday
brings a period of gusty southerly winds to the Detroit airspace,
with north/northwest gusts at MBS/FNT.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Potential exists for isolated thunderstorms
to develop this evening. Embedded thunderstorms will remain possible
as rain increases in coverage overnight into Sunday morning ahead of
a cold front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  Low for ceilings below 5kft this afternoon through early tonight.
   Moderate late tonight into Sunday.

*  Low for thunderstorms this evening and overnight into Sunday
   morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

DISCUSSION...

Southeast Michigan will begin the day in the warm sector between a
departing mid level ridge and slowly moving cold front across the
western Great Lakes. Deep southwest flow and a 30-40 knot low level
jet will ramp up moisture advection this morning into the afternoon.
PWATs of greater than 1.25 inches will arrive and support increasing
shower potential within the southwest to northeast oriented moisture
axis. This targets the Tri-Cities with the likely PoPs this morning
before expanding southeast towards Detroit metro this afternoon into
this evening. The morning activity should be rather weak and
elevated. Moving into the afternoon/early evening, better diurnal
instability will try and develop with MUCAPEs increasing to around
500 j/kg while 0-6km bulk shear increases to 30-40 knots supportive
of some organized convective potential. Rather weak mid-level lapse
rates to around 6.0 C/km and skinny CAPE profiles will be factors
working against any strong convection. Given the stronger low level
wind profiles, any storm that can get even slightly organized may be
able to produce damaging winds. RAP parameters favor areas south of
I-69, especially closer to the southern MI border through about 8 pm
this evening with this initial wave of showers and thunderstorms.
Daytime mixing heights today will also be capable of producing gusts
of 20-25 mph, which will peak early to mid afternoon. One more warm
day is also expected today with highs to around 80 degrees across the
south and around 70 degrees across the far north.

Rapid cyclogenesis will occur tonight into tomorrow along the
frontal zone with the consolidation of a southern stream wave into
the Canadian trough. Low level shear (0-1 km) will increase
dramatically over southeast Michigan during the 11 pm Saturday to 8
am Sunday as the 0-6 km shear increases to 50 knots. Latest machine
learning tools still want to highlight a low end tornado (2%) and
wind (5%) threat during this time, but overnight stability should
limit this potential. This potential is now highlighted with a
Marginal Risk of severe weather up to the I-96 corridor, which also
encapsulates the wind threat this evening.

This dynamic low pressure system will also bring heavy rain
potential. Greater moisture advection on the north end of this low
will push PWATS towards 1.50 inches. The associated strong
FGEN/deformation along and northwest of the low will yield QPF
amounts of 1 to 2 inches with a narrow band(s) of greater than 2
inches. Bulk of rainfall will fall over the course of a 24 to 36
hour period Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening. Confidence
increasing for the stripe of higher totals to focus from southwest
Michigan through the Saginaw Valley/Tri-Cities as the low tracks
across central Michigan. Though, subtle adjustments of the low track
remain possible, which in turn would slide the heavy rain axis
slightly north or south. Strongest low level wind fields with 850mb
jet winds of 45-50+ knots will be over southeast Michigan around 12Z
Sunday morning. Local wind probability guidance is highlighting a
peak in gusts around this time. Given the shallow mixing depths/low
level stability this early in the day on Sunday, it may be tied to
convection which could result in scattered wind gusts of 40 mph or
greater. Lower confidence exists at this time with respect to the
Sunday morning wind potential.

Rain chances begin to wane as low pressure lifts to the north late
Sunday afternoon into the evening, which will open the door for cold
air advection to surge across Michigan in northwest winds. Winds in
the lowest 3kft drop to around 30-40 knots into Sunday evening, but
can still expect occasional wind gusts of 35-45 mph during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.

Monday will see daytime high temperatures fall to around 60 degrees
with high pressure bringing mostly dry conditions before another
potent low pressure system arrives late Monday night into Tuesday
leading to gusty winds and more rain. Cold cyclonic flow will take
hold mid to late week leading to daytime highs in the 50s. The
overlake delta t's will support fair amount of lake clouds along
with periodic light rain showers throughout that period.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories around the Thumb drop off this morning as
south-southeast winds gradually weaken through the day. Lull is
shortlived as rapidly developing low pressure system forms over mid-
Mississippi river before tracking over lower MI Sunday. Low center
is still expected to track directly over Lake Huron (from roughly
the Saginaw Bay to Manitoulin Island) first half of the day. This
results in strengthening southerly flow over the bulk of the central
Great Lakes save for far northern Lake Huron which would see more
north/northeast flow. A ~50kt LLJ jet develops mainly over the
southern half of the region Sunday morning-early as the low nears
peak strength which opens the door to see a period of southerly
gales particularly over the southern waters of Lake Huron. The
complicating factor however is strong accompanying warm air
advection which sets up a solid stable near-surface layer greatly
inhibiting momentum mixing down to the ground. Confidence is still
low for consistent enough gusts to warrant a headline so have erred
on not expanding the current gale watch to cover this timeframe with
the running forecast mentioning more sporadic gusts to entry-level
gales.

Higher confidence in the better gale potential Sunday evening
through much of the night once the low tracks into northern Ontario
ushering in colder northwesterly flow. The Gale Watch remains in
effect from 3PM Sunday to 4AM Monday. Strongest flow looks to occur
over northern Lake Huron where 40-45kt flow aloft supports potential
surface wind gusts in the 35-40kt range. Winds aloft are slightly
weaker over the southern portions of the lake (closer to 35-40kts)
however this will still support a chance to see 35kt gales over most
of these waters.

HYDROLOGY...

A strong low pressure system will lift across Michigan over this
weekend bringing basin average rainfall totals ranging between 1.25"
to 2.5" across southeast Michigan. The best chance for isolated
totals in excess of 2.50 inches is leans across the Tri-Cities
region and Flint Vicinity. Rainfall rates are expected to reside in
the low to moderate range for most of the event, but may become
briefly heavy at times, especially in any thunderstorms. Rainfall
rates of 0.25" to 0.50" per 3 hours will be the more likely higher
end rates. Though, rainfall rates greater than 0.50" per 3 hours
will be possible with any stronger thunderstorm. Heaviest rainfall
is expected to occur tonight through Sunday afternoon. Significant
flooding is not expected as 6 hr flash flood guidance is running
high, with most locations around 3 inches. Even if rainfall reaches
2-3 inches, rivers should remain in their banks due to the current
drought/low river levels. Localized flooding of urban, low-lying,
and poor draining areas will be possible however, especially if
fallen leaves clog storm drains. Daily record precipitation amounts
for October 19 will likely be broken at Flint and Saginaw (see climo
section).

CLIMATE...

The daily record precipitation amounts for Sunday October 19th.

Detroit: 2.02 inches  (Set in 1985)
Flint:   1.15 inches  (Set in 2011)
Saginaw: 1.37 Degrees (Set in 2011)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     LHZ361>363-421-422-441-442-462-463.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-441-
     442.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....AA
CLIMATE......SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
440 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-190845-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
440 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of strong thunderstorms this afternoon through
tonight producing isolated wind gusts to 50-60 mph and heavy
rainfall. Cannot rule out a brief tornadic spin up, mainly tonight.
Widespread rain showers tonight into Sunday will lead to weekend
rainfall totals of 1.25 to 2.25 inches for most of southeast
Michigan, with isolated totals of 2.5 inches or greater possible.
Scattered storms will be focused on along a southwest to northeast
axis today before widespread rainfall and with embedded thunderstorms
lifts northward late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Windy conditions develop Sunday afternoon, with west-northwest wind
gusts around 40 mph into the early evening hours. Gusty winds will
also be possible Sunday morning, but confidence is lower in regards
to the morning wind potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-190845-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
440 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms spread across the lakes this afternoon and tonight.
Activity will be more widespread tonight with more scattered
activity this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of 34
knot winds or greater.

Small Craft Advisory in effect across parts of the Thumb today. Refer
to the latest marine forecasts for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A gale watch is in effect for most of Lake Huron Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Refer to the latest marine forecasts for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AA