Tornado Warning 19, NWS Des Moines, IA

170 
WWUS53 KDMX 120244
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
944 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

IAC007-051-120252-
/O.EXP.KDMX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-250812T0245Z/
Davis IA-Appanoose IA-
944 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIS AND EAST CENTRAL
APPANOOSE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM CDT...

The Tornado Warning that was previously in effect has been reissued 
for Davis County and is in effect until 1030 PM. Please refer to 
that bulletin for the latest severe weather information. The storm 
and tornado threat has ended in Appanoose County.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for Davis 
County. 

LAT...LON 4063 9270 4073 9278 4088 9255 4071 9238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 239DEG 21KT 4079 9250 

$$

Dodson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
645 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More storms later today and tonight, mainly central and south.
  A narrow band of heavy rain could occur.

- Mostly dry Tuesday though a narrow window for showers or
  storms may occur with a boundary passage.

- Next chance for storms arrives Wednesday night and Thursday
  and very warm Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Showers have been lifting slowly north across southern Iowa today
though erosion on the northern side continues to occur with dry air
in the lowest 10 kft along Interstate 80 and northward. Surface
observations show a circulation over east central Kansas and this is
weakly showing up in the surface pressure analysis. Model guidance
is beginning to pick up on this feature aloft with a more compact
close 850 mb low that will lift slowly northeast and into southern
Iowa overnight. As this 850 mb low lifts north, a focused region of
moisture transport and low level jet will point into parts of
central and southern Iowa. The CAM simulated reflectivity solutions
appear to be having trouble resolving the current features in Kansas
and may be underdone with thunderstorm coverage overnight. The RAP13
has performed well with the feature the past 2 days and will use it
as a forecast foundation overnight with supplemental fields from the
NAM and GFS. Overall, expect showers and storms to increase in
coverage over Missouri and lift into southern Iowa later this
afternoon and evening and into central and southeast Iowa later this
evening and overnight. The precipitation potential placement fields
show a broad area of potential mainly south of Interstate 80 this
evening then a deformation like regions of storm and backbuilding
potential into central Iowa near the Des Moines metro and
east/northeast towards Cedar Rapids. Sounding profiles saturate so
the overall instability will lower and mid-level lapse rates are a
less than optimal 6 C/km. So while some thunderstorm outflow is
possible, the overall severe weather threat is low. Should note,
there is the potential for a few funnel clouds yet this afternoon
with any new updrafts but the overall potential is low with higher
LCLs this afternoon and minimal stretching potential. The main
hazard potential overnight is again for a ribbon of heavy rainfall,
in particular where that deformation like thunderstorm band could
setup. That band is a feature the CAMs have not locked on to. Warm
cloud depths with the saturation approach 14 kft again. Slow storm
motions of 20 kts or less and the potential for training in a
moisture rich environment with 2"+ PWAT values also favor the
potential for heavy rain. The main concern is if this may set up
over a metro area such as Des Moines. More hydrology impacts could
occur if a band of 3 to 5 inches occurs. In rural areas, the impacts
would be less. No headlines at this time as it is a lower confidence
forecast for occurrence and actual band placement if it did occur but
this is our focus going into the overnight.

The main upper level system swings through on Tuesday with a
boundary moving through the state during the afternoon and evening.
A few showers and storms may occur as the boundary moves through the
state but overall tonight's moisture will be cleared out of the area
and profiles will be much drier and will limit convective
development to a confined area. Ridge of high pressure moves into
Iowa Tuesday night into Wednesday. A shift to more zonal upper level
flow Wednesday night will bring a short wave towards Iowa overnight
into Thursday while theta-e advection develops on the backside of
the departing high pressure. This will bring at least token chances
for storms to Iowa. Upper level high pressure ridging will follow
and will bring the return of high temperatures in the 90s. More
chances for storms occur over the weekend, especially over northern
Iowa near the peak of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR cloud cover spans much of the state this evening, although a
few to scattered deck around 1000ft to 2000ft is present as
well. An area of light to occasionally moderate rain currently
resides over southern and south central Iowa, which is
producing MVFR to IFR conditions where the heavier showers are
located. Lightning has been sparse through this region, mainly
just occurring with stronger pulses in the activity. Therefore,
while lightning is still possible at both KOTM and KDSM this
evening into the overnight, have switched to PROB30 mention
rather than TEMPO, as it's unlikely TSRA will be occurring for
half of the period. If lightning confidence increases or appears
imminent, will amend accordingly. Gusty winds also can't be
ruled out with any storms, but winds have remained light with
most of the shower activity.

Through the overnight and into Tuesday morning, will see MVFR to
IFR ceilings develop over southern and eastern Iowa, mainly
impacting KOTM, KALO and potentially KDSM. There is also a
signal for fog development in the morning hours, but exact
location hasn't been easy to nail down, so kept it general for
now. More isolated showers and potentially a thunderstorm are
possible tomorrow afternoon, mainly north and northeast.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Dodson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
445 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-122145-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
445 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and storms possible, mainly south to southeast. The threat
for severe weather is low. Locally heavy rain possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Intermittent thunderstorm chances exist through the period, but
chances remain low (<30%) at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
412 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

IAZ044>046-057>059-120000-
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-
Including the cities of Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Audubon,
Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora, Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee,
and Adel
412 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS...

WHAT...Funnel clouds are possible due to current atmospheric
conditions. These funnel clouds are typically brief, drop only a
few hundred feet from the cloud base, and rarely become a tornado
or cause damage.

WHERE...Portions of west central Iowa.

WHEN...Now until 700 PM.

IMPACTS...None expected.

PREPAREDNESS AND PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...If a funnel cloud is spotted,
report it to the National Weather Service. If a tornado warning
becomes necessary, take appropriate action.

Dodson