Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight to Enhanced risk for severe weather across much of the
  forecast area through tonight. The primary threat is very
  large hail.

- Widespread chances for rain on Sunday with a few storms
  possible southeast.

- Cooler this weekend with temperatures back into the 60s and
  70s much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

The primary focus this forecast cycle is on the severe weather
potential through tonight, Currently as of 3 pm, a cold front
extends across the southeast third of Nebraska and just entering
far NW Iowa. The area immediately ahead of the cold front is
becoming surface based uncapped with around 2000+ J/kg of CAPE
while the 100 mb MLCAPE is less at 1500+ J/kg. A warm front
extends eastward through central Iowa. Thunderstorms have
developed north into southwest Minnesota with a few storms
beginning to develop over far northwest Iowa. Expect storms to
increase late this afternoon and especially this evening as the
low level jet increases. The low level jet will increase to 70
kts and will focus into central/south central Iowa. Expect a few
supercells to develop during this period. Looking at soundings,
a stout elevated mixed layer (EML) is currently over central
Iowa and that elevated warm layer will not completely erode
overnight. Widespread strato cumulus is in place over the
southwest 2/3rds of Iowa and that has caused surface
temperatures to cool this afternoon from earlier highs.
Therefore, while a few surface based storms are possible over
western Iowa early, this convection should become more elevated
overnight. Bufkit soundings at KDSM tonight have elevated storm
bases near 5-6 kft and regarding the hodograph and shear,
removing the lowest 5 kft from these removes much of the
directional shear and the large looping of the hodograph and the
shear becomes mostly unidirectional speed shear. This profile
may lead to splitting storms with left mover supercells capable
of large hail also. Lifting the parcels from the 5-6 kft level
also maximizes CAPE and instability values. So still expect
large hail with storms but this event may evolve a little
differently than what some of the CAM runs suggest given the
potential splits. A brief tornado threat may occur over the far
southwest/west central DMX warning area before storms become
more elevated.

The EML becomes re-established over central Iowa behind the
evening storms but there is the potential for additional storms
over northern Iowa after 06z with an additional threat for large
hail producing supercells. The layer below the EML remains quite
saturated into Friday and with a fair amount of turbulence.
While shallow showers could develop, it may be more of a drizzle
scenario into Friday. The boundary will move slowly southeast
overnight with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s pooling
along the boundary. This will mainly impact overnight low
temperatures as the surface based instability is capped. Temperatures
Friday will vary as the boundary continues its slow pace
southeast so highs in the 70s are expected over the far
southeast and 50s over much of the rest of the area.

The weekend will be cooler with highs in the 50s to low 60s on
Saturday. Currently have highs in the 50s on Sunday however
saturating soundings and dewpoints only in the 30s and 40s would
suggest temperatures may be much cooler and in the 40s. Will
take a closer look after today's event. An upper low is still
on track to lift into northern Missouri on Sunday with
precipitation spreading across much of Iowa. Some instability
does reach southeast Iowa so a few embedded thunderstorms are
possible. Next week looks warmer again with highs back into the
60s and 70s with a few low chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Boundary will gradually push southeast across central Iowa
overnight into Friday morning. Surface winds become north behind
the front and increase into Friday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected early this morning across northern
Iowa possibly impacting Fort Dodge, Mason City and Waterloo
terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings become widespread behind the
boundary on Friday for most locations with drizzle in northern
Iowa.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
248 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-182000-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
248 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe storms across southwest and
south-central Iowa, with a Slight Risk elsewhere. The main threat
will be very large hail, 2 inches or larger, but damaging winds
and a few tornadoes are also possible across southwest Iowa.
Greatest risk for severe storms will be between 5 pm today and 2
am Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances are in the forecast late Sunday and again on
Tuesday. The severe weather potential for Sunday is low at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
237 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     Hail             4 S Humboldt            42.66N 94.24W
04/18/2025  E1.00 Inch       Humboldt           IA   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

CC