Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Des Moines, IA

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA

433 
WWUS83 KDMX 141632
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1132 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions this Afternoon and Early
Evening over much of Southern, Central, and Eastern Iowa...

.Very warm conditions with near record highs, strong and gusty
south to southeast winds, and drier air coupled with dry fuels
will create critical fire weather conditions by this afternoon.

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-047>050-059>062-071>075-
081>086-092>097-150045-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0003.250314T1800Z-250315T0100Z/
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-
Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
1132 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central and northeast Iowa.

* WIND...Sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 
  mph will be common.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 30 to 35 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/desmoines

240 
WWUS83 KDMX 150032
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
732 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-047>050-059>062-071>075-
081>086-092>097-150145-
/O.EXP.KDMX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250315T0100Z/
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-
Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
732 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
FOR Portions of Central Iowa...

Scattered rainfall, increasing humidity and lower winds are
leading to better fire weather conditions, therefore the Red Flag
Warning is allowed to expire at 8PM.

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/desmoines

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong spring system on Friday brings strong winds, fire
  weather concerns and the potential for severe thunderstorms.
  Damaging winds remain the main concern with some hail and
  minor tornado threats.

- Gusty winds persist into Saturday, with light rain/snow
  chances (40-60%) primarily in the north and much colder
  temperatures.

- Warmer into early next week with the next chance of
  precipitation by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

A relative calm before an active day or so across Iowa with a multi-
faceted spring storm expected to move into the central United
States on Friday. Plenty of sunshine across the state today
with a tightening pressure gradient and increasing southeast
winds as warm advection intensifies. This continues into tonight
with an initial push of some moisture on an increasing low
level jet. This may lead to a few showers along the eastern edge
of the forecast area overnight with the small surge of theta-e
advection, however most locations remain dry overnight.

The upper low ejects into the central Plains from the southern
Rockies on Friday morning before lifting into western Iowa by mid
evening.  Very strong southerly flow develops overnight and persists
into Friday as the surface low drops to around 975mb in southern
Nebraska by Monday afternoon.  Mixing increases during the day
although the HRRR seems a bit overzealous trying to mix out to 550mb
with 66kts at the top of the mixed layer.  More reasonable mixing
suggests 45kts or so at the top of the mixed layer and with being in
the warm sector and ongoing lift, the overall potential is not as
great as when compared to cold advection/subsidence events. The
current Wind Advisory appears sufficient to cover the expected winds
but have added a few counties on the northwest edge.  A discussion
for fire weather concerns is located below.

Regarding severe weather, the amount of mixing will have a big
impact on the potential mode of severe weather. The deeper mixing
would lower surface dewpoints and CAPE along with raising the LCL's.
This would continue to favor damaging straight line winds but
eliminate the tornado threat.  Less mixing and more moisture would
provide the inverse conditions with a greater tornado threat along
with the wind threat remaining.  Recent trends via the SPC HREF also
indicate an area of higher risk in west central Iowa just east of
the surface low and ahead of the approaching upper low where mid
level lapse rates are steep and may enhance convection and
severe potential. Once again, low level moisture will be the
main limiting factor in determining severe weather mode with
damaging winds remaining the main concern. Convection is
expected to begin in southwest to central Iowa around 3-4pm and
race north northeast at 50-60 mph in the strong southerly mean
wind, likely clearing the area by 9pm or so. A few lingering
showers remain possible near the core of the upper low as it
passes across central Iowa

Cold advection intensifies into late Friday night and Saturday as
strong northwest winds develop.  Wind headlines may be needed once
again in the northwest on Saturday with gusts approaching 45 mph in
the strong cold advection.  The wrap around precipitation has
trended a bit farther west but may still clip the far northwest with
some light rain or snow although any significant accumulations
appear to remain farther to the north and west.  Thereafter, there
is a quick warmup into early next week before another system impacts
the state towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue into midday
Friday with just some mid or higher level clouds. Winds out of
the southeast do continue to increase through the night and more
so Friday with a period of LLWS overnight at all sites, but
then gusts reach 30 to 40 knots or more into Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms
are still expected to develop through the afternoon into
evening hours bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms
with damaging winds the primary threat, as noted above, which
could increase the wind threat more, but storm winds are not
reflected in these TAFs and will be closer to real-time. Have
started with thunderstorm mentions in Prob30 groups in this
issuance with some uncertainty remaining on the exact impacts
within 5SM of a terminal and additional uncertainty remaining on
the extent of visibility reductions or even ceilings with the
convection. Updates are likely in timing and impacts as
confidence in impacts and storm threats increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

A challenging fire weather forecast for Friday. Fire weather
partners on Wednesday indicated fire behavior more muted in the
areas that had snowpack last week, mainly across portions of western
into north central Iowa. However, expectations are that muted fire
behavior will be largely gone by tomorrow given our dry and warm
to near record temperatures today and tomorrow. So, fuels areawide
are expected to be critical and ready to burn on Friday. Winds
will also be near or above critical levels, particularly over
eastern and southern Iowa, with the sustained winds of 20 to 30
mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph common. The main question - and
where the greatest uncertainty in the forecast lies - is the depth
of mixing and how low dewpoints and resultant RHs will fall. The
initial National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance would keep
dewpoints into the 40s or low 50s whereas the more mixed models
would suggest dewpoints at least 5 to 10 degrees lower. Our
forecast has favored some level of deeper mixing and thus lower
dewpoints with RHs currently forecast as low as 25 to 35%. We can
say with confidence that at least elevated fire weather conditions
will be areawide on Friday. With the uncertainty in mixing depth
potential and how low RHs will fall over southern into eastern
Iowa and in coordination with neighboring Iowa offices, have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Friday afternoon for southern into
portions of central and eastern Iowa.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening
for IAZ038-039-049-050-060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
evening for IAZ038-039-049-050-060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...KCM
FIRE WEATHER...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
645 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

IAZ038-039-049-050-060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-142345-
Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
645 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Wind Advisory and a Fire Weather Watch are in effect for the
area Friday afternoon and evening. Please refer to the National
Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further
details.

A potent low pressure system will bring the potential for severe
weather Friday afternoon and evening with a Slight to Enhanced
Risk of severe weather. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat, with gusts in excess of 70 mph possible, but tornadoes and
large hail are possible as well.

Gusty winds are expected again Saturday with a few gusts over 40
mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed Friday afternoon and early evening.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>037-044>048-057>059-070-071-142345-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Cass-Adair-
645 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A potent low pressure system will bring the potential for severe
weather Friday afternoon and evening with a Slight to Enhanced
Risk of severe weather. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat, with gusts in excess of 70 mph possible, but tornadoes and
large hail are possible as well.

Gusty SSE winds are also anticipated Friday afternoon even
outside of storms, with gusts from 35 mph to 45 mph possible.
Warm temperatures and these winds will also result in near-
critical fire weather conditions.

Far northwest Iowa may also see light snow with blowing snow
Saturday resulting in hazardous travel conditions at times.
Gusty winds are expected also Saturday with a few gusts over 40
mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed Friday afternoon and early evening.