Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorm chances (20-30%) tonight.

- Warming trend continues into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building slowly northeast
through the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) pick back up tonight as the
SREF indicates another series of H5 vort maxima ejecting off an
amplifying ridge axis across the northern Colorado Rockies into the
high plains of northeast Colorado/western Nebraska this evening.
Near the surface, deep level moisture continues to pool ahead of the
anchored lee side trough axis in eastern Colorado with surface
dewpoints well up into mid/upper 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F), providing
more than ample instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500 to
4000 J/kg. Combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated
with peak daytime heating, thunderstorms are once again forecast to
develop in eastern/northeast Colorado late this afternoon/early evening,
then spread east-southeast into northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska
overnight, and potentially into central Kansas early Sunday morning.
However, the magnitude of any thunderstorms looks to be more limited
as suggested by the HREF, only showing a 10-20% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding even 0.1 of an inch across portions of west central
and central Kansas. Similar conditions are expected Sunday with the
upper level ridge axis shifting only slightly easterward. Limited
thunderstorm chances (mainly in coverage) exist Monday as the upper
level ridge shifts farther east into the Central Plains.

The ongoing warming trend continues today as prevailing southeasterlies
reinforce a warming airmass across the region, pushing H85 temperatures
up around 25C in central Kansas to near 30C in extreme southwest Kansas.
With the HREF showing a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping
85F in central/south central Kansas to a better than an 80-90% probablity
of temperatures exceeding 90F in extreme southwest Kansas, expect
afternoon highs generally up into the upper 80s(F) in central Kansas
to widespread 90s(F) farther west/southwest. A little more widespread
lower/mid 90s(F) are likely Sunday and Monday as the upper level ridge
moves out of the Rockies into the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
vicinity of all TAF sites before ending west to east by mid-morning.
Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions are forecast to prevail in
vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light south-southeast
winds are expected to persist through much of the period as a lee
side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
338 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-140915-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Stanton KS-Lane KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-Grant KS-
Scott KS-Haskell KS-
338 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
KEARNY...FINNEY...SCOTT...GRANT...LANE...NORTHEASTERN STANTON...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM
CDT/315 AM MDT/...

At 336 AM CDT/236 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles north of Garden City, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Friend around 355 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10115 3827 10112 3870 10113 3870 10034
      3802 10050 3756 10079 3748 10156 3782 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 0836Z 183DEG 18KT 3810 10090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KSZ030-031-044>046-064-065-079-140915-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Trego KS-Lane KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
Edwards KS-
340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NESS...NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN...
TREGO...NORTHEASTERN LANE...NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE...WESTERN RUSH...
NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND WESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

At 339 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bazine, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brownell around 355 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9961 3878 9959 3868 9939 3810 9919
      3806 9955 3844 9990 3848 10032 3870 10036
      3870 10015 3913 10015 3913 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 183DEG 18KT 3849 9973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
413 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KSZ030-031-044>046-064-065-140945-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Trego KS-Lane KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
413 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NESS...NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN...
TREGO...EAST CENTRAL LANE...NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE...RUSH AND ELLIS
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 413 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles north of Ogallah to 6 miles south of
Trego Center to near Alamota. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Ransom, Alamota, Arnold, Beeler, Riga, and Cedar Bluff around 420
  AM CDT.
  Ellis and Brownell around 425 AM CDT.
  Ness City around 430 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Yocemento.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9904 3857 9914 3815 9975 3849 10050
      3871 10014 3913 10015 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 290DEG 42KT 3910 9971 3878 9992 3848 10037

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
442 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KSZ030-031-141015-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
442 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TREGO AND NORTHERN
ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM CDT...

At 442 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Ellis, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Trego
and northern Ellis Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9904 3892 9962 3913 9962 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0942Z 273DEG 18KT 3906 9951

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KSZ030-031-045-046-063>065-078-079-141015-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
Edwards KS-Ford KS-
445 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FORD...EAST CENTRAL
FINNEY...EASTERN NESS...HODGEMAN...SOUTHEASTERN TREGO...NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE...RUSH...NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 AM CDT...

At 444 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Brownell to 10 miles south of Bazine to
near Kalvesta. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Bazine, McCracken, Alexander, and Kalvesta around 450 AM CDT.
  Gray, Jetmore, Burdett, and Hanston around 455 AM CDT.
  Nekoma and Hargrave around 500 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Rozel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9904 3819 9918 3784 9995 3798 10023
      3800 10023 3800 10026 3808 10041 3841 9991
      3878 9978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0944Z 298DEG 42KT 3868 9971 3829 9974 3811 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KSZ045-046-064>066-077>080-087-088-141045-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-Stafford KS-Meade KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Clark KS-
Kiowa KS-Ness KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
513 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FORD...NORTHWESTERN KIOWA...
EASTERN NESS...HODGEMAN...NORTHEASTERN MEADE...PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN
GRAY...WEST CENTRAL STAFFORD...SOUTHWESTERN RUSH...EDWARDS AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CDT...

At 512 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spearville, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hanston around 525 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9973 3753 10031 3862 9979 3849 9919
      3794 9899
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 183DEG 49KT 3788 9974

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KBJ