Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
524 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong damaging winds will be possible tonight (45 to near
  60%), especially west of highway 183. Wind gusts greater than
  70 mph can be expected.

- Much cooler temperatures can be expected on Tuesday. There is
  currently a greater than 70% chance that high temperatures
  will remain below 70 degrees west and north of Dodge City.

- Unseasonably cool with thunderstorms possible almost each day
  for the last half of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 517 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Mesoscale Discussion...

The broken line of storms from Syracuse to Ulysses to Hugoton
will congeal into a solid storm line as a cold pool develops by
23 UTC (6 pm CDT) and then progress eastward. Isolated severe
winds will become more widespread as a result, with gusts to 70+
mph. Until the solid line forms, there could be a few more
reports of quarter sized hail with the strongest cells.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

An area of low pressure at the surface was centered over
southeast Colorado earlier today, with a surface boundary
extending south into the Texas Panhandle. A 500mb trough was
situated over Arizona, and as of 10am Monday scattered
thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of this upper level trough over
New Mexico. Short term weather models are in good agreement
that this upper level trough moving into southwest Kansas early
tonight as enhanced lift (indicated by ongoing convection) ahead
of this upper wave spreads into southwest Kansas after 4pm. 
Model soundings indicate an inverted V profile and steep 0-3km
lapse rates exceeding 9C/km across extreme southwest Kansas
ahead of this system with little to no CIN. This plus the
enhanced upper level lift developing supports the SPCs latest
assessment and the decision to increase the wind gust potential
from these storms. Based on the deeply mixed environment and
very unstable environment...damaging winds exceeding 70 mph will
be possible (45 to near 60%) early tonight. A few storms may
also produce some isolated hail before sunset.

Currently based on the latest CAMS the greatest risk for
these strong damaging winds will be south of I-70 and west of
Highway 183 between 6pm and 11 pm. Brief periods of heavy
rainfall are also expected given the high PWATS, potentially
reducing visibility and producing ponding of water in poor
drainage areas.

After these storms move out of the area after midnight...a
brief lull in precipitation is anticipated before a strong cold
front pushes across western Kansas early Tuesday morning.
Another round of thunderstorms will accompanying this front on
Tuesday with some of these storm being capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts over 40 mph. Severe
weather is not expected during this period.

Behind the cold front, gusty north winds will usher in
significantly cooler air. With continued cloud cover and
lingering rain, daytime temperatures on Tuesday will not warm
much. Expect a drop from highs near 90 today (Monday) to highs
in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday. There is currently a greater
than 70% chance that high temperatures will remain below 70
degrees west and north of Dodge City.

For the remainder of the workweek, unseasonably cool
temperatures will persist with several additional chances for
thunderstorms. Ensemble models are in agreement that multiple
upper level disturbances will cross western Kansas late week and
early this weekend. One more significant upper level trough is
expected to cross the Central Plains on Thursday or Friday.
While ensemble clusters vary slightly on timing, they all agree
that MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear will increase
to 70% or higher and a 50-70% chance of surface dewpoints
exceeding 60 ahead of this upper level system. This setup
presents the potential for our next chance for severe
thunderstorms across southwest Kansas late in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to impact all
airports during the 00-06z Tue time frame. Some storms will be
severe, with a primary risk of outflow winds of 50-60 kts.
Maintained convective TEMPO groups in all TAFs. A strong cold
front will sweep through the airports 12-15z Tue, with an abrupt
shift to strong north winds. After 15z Tue, north wind gusts of
32-37 kts are expected. Widespread post frontal IFR stratus is
expected at all airports Tuesday morning, with ceilings
gradually returning to VFR through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
457 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
457 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 /357 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There are chances for severe thunderstorms this evening between 5
pm and 10 pm. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There are chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night through the
weekend. It is too early to tell if these storms will be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather and heavy rainfall are always greatly
appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
724 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

KSZ030-044-045-063-064-030115-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Trego KS-Lane KS-Ness KS-
724 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...NESS...
NORTHERN HODGEMAN...TREGO AND LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Shields to 10 miles east of
Kalvesta. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pendennis and Beeler around 730 PM CDT.
  Utica around 735 PM CDT.
  Arnold around 740 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ness City,
Ransom, Bazine, Trego Center, Wakeeney and Brownell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
also remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for southwestern and west
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 9985 3859 9960 3808 9959 3801 10046
      3828 10066 3869 10068 3870 10065 3870 10016
      3893 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 223DEG 42KT 3870 10042 3804 10009

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
725 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Minneola                37.44N 100.01W
06/02/2025  E55 MPH          Clark              KS   Law Enforcement

            Wind Gusts estimated between 50 and 60 mph.

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
736 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Kingsdown         37.51N 99.81W
06/02/2025  M55 MPH          Ford               KS   Mesonet

            Report received from Mesonet station UP835.

&&

RCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
757 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

KSZ065-078>081-089-090-030145-
Pratt KS-Pawnee KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-Comanche KS-
757 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FORD...KIOWA...
WESTERN BARBER...EASTERN COMANCHE...SOUTH CENTRAL PAWNEE...EDWARDS
AND SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Offerle to 7 miles south of
Aetna. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and blowing dust.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Kinsley, Greensburg, and Aetna around 800 PM CDT.
  Belvidere and Centerview around 805 PM CDT.
  Haviland around 810 PM CDT.
  Lewis, Sun City, Fellsburg, and Croft around 815 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Wellsford,
Garfield, Lake City, Trousdale and Belpre.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3703 9925 3789 9966 3792 9962 3791 9957
      3795 9957 3818 9921 3700 9860
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 243DEG 28KT 3799 9956 3697 9895

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
801 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

KSZ030-031-045-046-030200-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
801 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NESS...TREGO...NORTHWESTERN RUSH
AND ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 801 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Voda to near Ransom to 9 miles south of Ness
City. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Wakeeney, Brownell, Voda, and Trego Center around 805 PM CDT.
  Bazine and Cedar Bluff around 810 PM CDT.
  Ogallah around 815 PM CDT.
  Riga around 820 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ellis, McCracken,
Yocemento and Hays.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 9924 3827 10009 3867 10015 3913 10015
      3913 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 210DEG 47KT 3903 10001 3868 9985 3832 9984

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
826 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

KSZ066-081-090-030200-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Barber KS-
826 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BARBER...SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD
AND PRATT COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 825 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Byers to near
Hardtner. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pratt, Medicine Lodge, Kiowa, Hardtner, Iuka, Preston, Sharon,
Sawyer, Cullison, Hazelton, Isabel, Coats, Lake City, Sun City,
Byers, Zenith, Cairo, and Neola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9883 3774 9901 3799 9847 3739 9846
      3738 9835 3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 230DEG 35KT 3774 9882 3695 9869

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BENNETT