Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
252 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms capable of producing hail 2 inches or larger,
  wind gusts greater than 60 mph, and even a few isolated
  tornadoes will be possible late today and early tonight west
  of highway 283.

- Heavy rainfall overnight may result in localized flash
  flooding (15-24% chance) east of highway 283.

- Warmer, more seasonal temperatures will return late this week
  and over the upcoming weekend. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Mesoscale discussion...

Unseasonably cold mid level temperatures and abundant moisture
were present across far southwest Kansas along and north of a
warm frontal boundary. Elevated heating in southeastern
Colorado has resulted in weak surface low pressure near
Springfield, CO, with a warm frontal boundary extending from
north of this low southeastward. These factors, along with
large scale forcing for ascent ahead of an upper level trough,
argue for early storm initiation. A stratocumulus field was
obvious on visible satellite imagery and cumulus
towers/incipient t-storms were noted across southeastern
Colorado. Owing to strong veering, 0-6 km bulk shear values will
be quite high on the order of 50 kts. Northeast of the surface
low, 0-1 km SRH will be locally enhanced--around 150 m2/s2,
especially given a deviant storm motion off of the hodograph to
the southeast at 15 kts. Strong instability of 2000-3000 j/kg
will be confined to locations along and west of a line from
Meade to Syracuse. Farther east, widespread cloud cover will
inhibit surface heating and CAPE values will drop off sharply.
Therefore, there is a tornado risk along with very large hail
through 7 pm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

An upper level trough was located on the western side of a
500mb low centered over Minnesota earlier this morning. Just
ahead of this trough, 850-700mb moisture and confluent flow were
observed based on 9am SPC Mesoscale Analysis. At the surface, a
theta-e ridge axis extended from northwest Nebraska into
eastern Colorado, along and just east of a surface boundary.
This is also where our axis of higher instability and shear were
located.

This axis of higher MLCAPE and shear will be the primary area
for ongoing afternoon convective initiation as the upper level
trough approaches southwest Kansas. As of 2pm CDT we have
already seen thunderstorm development in this area across
eastern Colorado and after 4pm the short term models agree that
this moist instability axis will shift eastward into far
southwest Kansas, as minimal CIN over this area erodes and a
surface boundary lifts north into portions of extreme southwest
Kansas. This shift in the instability axis eastward and the
forecast location of the surface boundary late day across
portions of southwest Kansas will favor improving chances for
severe thunderstorms across southwest Kansas early tonight. The
primary threats initially early tonight include hail larger
than two inches and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph.  A few isolated
tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out if storms remain
discrete into the early evening, as 850mb winds strengthen from
the south. After 7 pm the environment appears to support that
these storms will become more linear and transition from very
large hail to strong damaging winds and heavy rainfall. 

The heavy rainfall from these storms overnight may also result
in some water issues, mainly east of highway 283. In this area
WPC has upgraded the excessive rainfall outlook to a Slight Risk
(15–24% chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance).
This upgrade appears warranted, given the possibility of locally
heavy rain based on the PWATS of 1" or greater. These periods
of heavy rainfall may surpass the 3 hour flash flood guidance of
2 to 2.5 inches in a few locations if multiple storms are able
to move over the same area overnight.  At this time however will
lean towards holding off on any type of flood watches despite
the potential for minor water issues given the progressive
nature of these storms as they cross south central Kansas during
the overnight period and that the 90th percentile only has a
limited area of rainfall totals of 3" or more (just over FFG).
We will be monitoring these locations are Kiowa/Pratt and
Comanche counties.  These counties will be monitored closely for
possible ponding of water, mainly in poor drainage and low
lying areas given the potential for rainfall totals to be up to
3 inches overnight.

These thunderstorms will taper off from northwest to southeast
after midnight based on the timing of the upper level trough
crossing western Kansas and 850mb frontogenesis from the SREF.
However, scattered thunderstorms may continue through early
Thursday.

As precipitation ends early Thursday, a cool dome of high
pressure will move across western Kansas. This cooldown will be
brief, with a warming trend expected to return late in the week
and over the weekend, as a shortwave ridge builds across the
Rockies and into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Main focus this afternoon will be the potential for severe
thunderstorms across southwest Kansas late today and early
Tonight.

CAMS are in agreement with convection developing over eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas early this afternoon as an upper
level trough approaches from the north. These storms will then
spread into southwest Kansas and cross the Garden City area
between 00z Thursday and 03z Thursday. These storms will then
cross the Dodge City and Liberal areas between 02z and 05z
Thursday. Wind gusts of 40 knots or greater along with possible
hail may accompany these storms early tonight. Thunderstorms
will also be possible in the Hays area between 01z and 06z
Thursday but the probability for strong winds will be lower
(30-50%). Along with thunderstorms early tonight the ceilings in
the IFR category will be possible. Winds prior to these
thunderstorms will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Following
these thunderstorms the prevailing winds will be north northeast
at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-290800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
246 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 /146 AM MDT Wed May 28 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with very large to perhaps giant hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
tonight. Heavy rainfall with water issues is also a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
338 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

KSZ074-282115-
Stanton KS-
338 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STANTON COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...

At 338 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
The Saunders Elevator, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Manter around 345 PM CDT.
  Johnson City around 355 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 10204 3771 10169 3739 10159 3740 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 262DEG 30KT 3753 10198

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
425 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

KSZ074-084-282200-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
425 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MORTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 425 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near The Saunders Elevator, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Morton
and southwestern Stanton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3750 10204 3752 10171 3736 10170 3737 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 258DEG 23KT 3745 10201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AJOHNSON

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
428 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     Hail             Manter                  37.52N 101.88W
05/28/2025  M1.00 Inch       Stanton            KS   Storm Chaser

&&

RCB

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
433 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     Hail             Manter                  37.52N 101.89W
05/28/2025  E2.00 Inch       Stanton            KS   Public

&&

RCB