Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Dodge City, KS

278 
WWUS53 KDDC 240418
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1018 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

KSC075-240445-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-250524T0445Z/
Hamilton KS-
1018 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

At 1017 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Coolidge,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Coolidge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3816 10172 3801 10183 3794 10189
      3805 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 309DEG 17KT 3810 10201 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

HOVORKA

597 
WWUS53 KDDC 240435
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1035 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

KSC075-240445-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-250524T0445Z/
Hamilton KS-
1035 PM MDT Fri May 23 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM MDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3816 10172 3801 10183 3794 10189
      3805 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 309DEG 17KT 3805 10193 

$$

HOVORKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
534 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Limited severe storm potential Friday afternoon and Friday
  night, with large hail the primary risk.

- Cold front Saturday morning will provide SW KS with an
  unseasonably cool Memorial Day weekend, with more clouds than
  sun, northeast winds, occasional rain, and afternoon
  temperatures much below late May normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Midday mesoanalysis outlines widespread stratus and midlevel
clouds across much of SW KS, that has delayed or prevented
instability through midday. Widespread elevated southeast winds
and related moisture advection was supporting dewpoints into the
lower 60s across western zones. CAPE axis was establishing
across eastern Colorado, where sunshine was interacting with
moist southeast winds. Current thinking is most zones will be
quiet through 7 pm, with widely scattered supercells developing
over eastern Colorado first late this afternoon. Storms will
move southeast through the evening, in a CAPE/shear parameter
space favorable for supercells. While storms are supercellular,
hail of 2+ inches will be a risk. With time tonight, any
supercells will grow upscale into multicell clusters, at which
time hail size will decrease, and the risk for outflow winds
will increase. Despite SPC hail/significant hail probability,
confidence in convective evolution is low this evening. Many
CAMs, presumably picking up on the clouds and slow destabilizing
process, keep most activity in NW KS/WFO Goodland's CWA. Pops
are necessarily restricted to only the chance/scattered
category.

Cold front, augmented/assisted by any convective outflow, will
progress southward across SW KS tonight, easily reaching the
KS/OK border by sunrise Saturday. All models show widespread
post frontal stratus expanding Saturday morning, and once
established, cool moist NE winds will work to keep stratus
entrenched through most of Saturday. The lack of insolation
combined with a net loss of -5C at 850 mb will work together to
keep afternoon temperatures much below late May normals.
Saturday's temperatures follow the coolest guidance, struggling
into the lower 60s, and even that may be too warm. Areas of
light rain and/or drizzle are expected through the day.

More of the same Sunday, cloudy, northeast winds, off and on
rain showers, drizzle, and unseasonably cool. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to be on the order of 20 degrees below
normal, again struggling into the lower 60s, with many locations
stuck in the 50s. Models remain consistent relegating any
instability and severe threat well to the southeast of SW KS in
Oklahoma.

Long wave trough over the Great Basin Sunday will make progress
to the high plains Memorial Day Monday, with the trough axis
arriving by afternoon. This synoptic evolution favors an
increase in rain coverage late Sunday/early Monday, as shown by
ECMWF/EPS and the likely pops from the NBM. Models show
unseasonably little MUCAPE (near or less than 1000 J/kg), so
severe weather is very unlikely. Can't rule some marginally
severe hail from some of the elevated storms as the trough
passes. Monday temperatures will again be stuck way below
normal, held down by clouds, northeast winds, and rain.

Improving weather is expected Tuesday with subsidence behind the
departing trough axis decreasing the clouds. Probability of rain
increases again by midweek, with temperatures gradually
returning closer to normal through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with mid level
cloudiness. Low clouds will redevelop overnight bringing MVFR to
IFR conditions. A thunderstorm will be possible around the HYS
terminal after midnight. Winds will generally be from an
easterly direction tonight, shifting to more of a northeasterly
direction tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
201 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240715-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
201 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 /101 AM MDT Fri May 23 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening. Primary risk is large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1022 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

KSZ043-044-240400-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
1022 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCOTT AND LANE COUNTIES THROUGH
1100 PM CDT...

At 1022 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scott City, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Scott and Lane
Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10025 3826 10025 3826 10070 3832 10111
      3870 10108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 303DEG 24KT 3844 10083

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HOVORKA