Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
238 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather potential with high impacts are possible
  today with giant (up to 4 inches) hail, damaging winds,
  tornadoes along and east of 283 between 3-8 pm

- A line of storms is forecast to sweep across SW Kansas Monday
  that may strengthen to severe thresholds upon reaching the
  eastern portion of the CWA

- Dry and warm middle of the week before rain chances (20-30%
  via ensembles) return on Friday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Mesoscale Discussion...

A dry line front intersection in the Oklahoma Panhandle will
surge northward into southwest Kansas by 4 pm. The warm front
will extend across south central Kansas. The air mass over
southwest Kansas is still capped by the elevated mixed layer;
but this will erode with daytime heating and moisture advection.

0-6 km bulk shear values of 55-65 kts will be strongly
supportive of supercell storms. 0-1 km storm relative helicity
values will start out around 150-200 m2/s2 and increase to as
high as 250 m2/s2 after 23z as a southerly low level jet
increases to 40-45 kts, which is favorable for storms to become
tornadic. T-storms will develop between 4 and 5 pm (21-22Z) and
very quickly become severe with very large to giant hail and
possibly tornadoes. The severe storm threat will continue
through 10 pm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Current surface and RAP mesoanalysis are confirming the forecasted
trajectory of a deepening low pressure system as it moves over the
Rockies. This sets up for a day of severe weather across Kansas with
all hazards possible. Uncertainty remains on if/where storms are
able it initiate, but if they do the storms will have access to an
environment able and waiting to nurture the storms into strong ones
capable of producing up to giant (4 inch) hail, strong tornadoes,
and damaging winds. The hail threat is expected to persist
throughout the event with the greatest tornado potential kicking off
later into the evening around 7 pm as the LLJ increases. The wind
threat is relatively minor, but severe gusts up to 70 mph are
possible with any strong storms. Non-thunderstorm winds are
forecasted to gust as strong as 50 mph, especially near the CO/KS
border as a result of the strong and deepening low.

With respect to the environment the mesoscale update portion of the
AFD will go into more detail, but the environment is very favorable
for severe weather if they can initiate both in regards to surface
parameters and upper-level dynamical support as the upper-level
trough supports the surface low. Ensembles have sufficient difluent
flow aloft as well as notable CVA at 500 mb. CAM trends continue to
be more bullish on a dry intrusion developing around 700 mb into the
evening. Both the RAP and NAMNST forecast soundings continue to be
more than optimistic with CAPE values >3000 J/kg and SRH values >250
m2/s2. Combined with ample shear and a nicely curved hodograph, the
environment exists for very strong supercell development and
maintenance. Especially into the evening once the LLJ strengthens and
the dry intrusion expands, the potential for strong longer-tracked
tornadoes are possible after around 6-7 pm.

The biggest concern is the uncertainty of initiation. Stratus from
earlier today lingered longer than previously anticipated, which
would make it more difficult for storms to break the CAP, although
CAMs are in disagreement on how much CAP exists. CAMs can not decide
where to initiate, how much storms will develop, and how long the
development window will last. The NAMNST has limited development
contained to the southeast portion of the CWA, while the HRRR has
multiple rounds of storms firing as far west as highway 83. That far
west would have less CAP with the trade-off of a less favorable
environment. However, if they storms can initiate and survive long
enough to access the prime atmosphere farther east, the very strong
severe storms mentioned are still more than possible. The next
couple hours will be pivotal on determining if today is closer to an
outbreak or a bust.

Monday has another round of thunderstorms progged as the trough and
deep low moves over the forecast area. CAMs have a line of storms
developing across the forecast area in the evening. As these storms
move eastward, the storms will enter a more favorable environment
for severe weather along the eastern counties yet again with very
high CAPE and shear values along with the better areas with
moisture. While some uncertainty remains, the severe potential is a
lot lower for the CWA compared to the setup on Sunday. It remains to
be see how storm development on Sunday will impact the environment
on Monday.

Beyond Monday, ensembles continue to have a dry, warm trend for SW
Kansas. Highs on Tuesday forecasted to be in the upper 70s/ lower
80s. The rest of the week is expected to follow suit with continued
highs in the 70s/80s. Ensembles continue to hint at a wave of storm
chances returning on Friday, although plenty of uncertainty still
exists this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period
except HYS. Strong winds will start from the southeast at 20-25 KTs
with gusts over 30 KTs. Through the period winds will shift
clockwise ending out of the southwest. GCK could see gusts up to 40
KTs shortly into the period. HYS has the most difficult and
complicated TAF, thunderstorms are expected on and off between 23-3Z
with severe weather potential, especially hail; low cloud bases from
the storms are expected to lower flight conditions to MVFR.
Additionally, HYS is forecast to see LLWS around 4-6Z before cloud
cover lifts restoring VFR as the flight category.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
310 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 /210 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Significant severe weather risk this afternoon and early evening
for areas along and east of highway 283. Between 3-8pm discrete
supercells are possible with an environment to support hail tennis
ball sized or greater, wind gusts over 60 mph, and tornadoes with
strong tornado potential especially after 4pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe weather risk for mainly areas along and east of highway 281
on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon for areas along
and east of highway 283.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
456 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ031-182230-
Ellis KS-
456 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ELLIS COUNTY THROUGH 530
PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Munjor, moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hays, Victoria, and Toulon around 500 PM CDT.
  Catherine around 505 PM CDT.
  Emmeram around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9904 3877 9938 3913 9936 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 187DEG 43KT 3879 9924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ043-044-182230-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
501 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN
LANE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Modoc, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Scott State Lake around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10062 3838 10099 3843 10113 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 203DEG 37KT 3849 10106

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ063-076-077-182245-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Haskell KS-
510 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FINNEY...NORTHWESTERN
GRAY AND NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Charleston, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Charleston around 520 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 10072 3807 10076 3805 10023 3804 10023
      3767 10045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 187DEG 39KT 3773 10062

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SPRINGER