Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
111 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A small complex of storms tonight is possible, some strong

- Highest pops Saturday across the eastern zones

- Another round of storms Monday/Tuesday, followed by cooler temps

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Another small complex of storms (MCS) is possible, mainly across central
Kansas this evening. It is not totally clear if storms will form or
not. Some of the CAMs have strong thunderstorms, while other CAMs
do not show much of anything developing. Areal coverage should be
not that great in considering the CAMs that do show storm development.
There is a risk of 1 out of 5, so cannot rule out a strong thunderstorm.
Marginally severe wind and hail reports would be the main threats.
Overall coverage to remain on the more isolated side. Brief heavy
rainfall is also possible. Our 12Z RAOB PWAT of 0.66" is down from
0.97" last night, so do not anticipate any major water issues. Otherwise,
the rest of the FA will remain dry. Lows tonight will be in the mix
of 50s northeast to 60s southeast.

An upper level wave that is driving the storm development will continue
to move east and southeast Saturday. As such, an area of shift of
POPs is expected across the forecast domain. Have the highest pops
(50%) across the eastern zones with POPs diminishing in numerical
value farther west. Far western Kansas along the Colorado border
should remain dry for the beginning of the weekend. Otherwise, not
too warm highs with values in the lower 80s across expected across
the FA. Lows in the mix of 50s to 60s for Sunday morning.

Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast shortwave ridging for Sunday. This
would support the notion of a drier forecast across southwest Kansas.
Highs will continue to remain well into the 80s. Lows still in the
mix of 50s northwest to 60s southeast. Pops will remain silent per
the latest NBM solution.

Attention then turns to Monday evening into Tuesday. Both the deterministic
models as well as some of their ensemble counterparts indicate a
fropa late Monday evening. This would reintroduce storm chances across
the FA per the NBM solution. In addition, cooler highs (70s) looks
likely in the wake of the storm system during the middle portion
of the business week. Will have to watch lows for the far western
counties, as they may dip down into the 40s. It would be 50s for
the rest of the FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

VFR is expected through tonight. MVFR cigs may be introduced across
the terminals by tomorrow morning. Short term models still show the
most likely area of impact of storms is still for KDDC and KHYS.
Will continue the prob30 to account for this possibility of storms
later this evening. Gusty outflow winds and some hail would be the
main threats of the storms along with locally reduced cigs and vis.
Light southerly winds expected today and could be light and variable
by tonight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS
419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 /319 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms this evening
and late tonight. The risk area is generally along and east of
Highway 283 and along and north of the Arkansas River. Large hail
risk of quarter to half dollar size will be confined to mainly
I-70 and points north with damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph
later on this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances increase again early next week in advance of
another storm system and cold front. At this time, it is too early
to determine severe weather potential, so keep checking back for
updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
537 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

KSZ030-192315-
Trego KS-
537 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN TREGO COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Quinter, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Collyer around 555 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9991 3903 10015 3913 10015 3913 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 353DEG 20KT 3920 10015

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO