Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
716 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50 to 70% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  this evening through early Thursday.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**

We have received several hail reports between 1" and 2". Our 00Z
RAOB showed CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km bulk shear has
increased to 43 kt, which does support the supercell formation we
have seen over the last several hours. 0-1 km SRH was around 100
m2/s2, which shows that the overall tornado threat is on the lower
side. We did have one supercell with pretty strong rotation near
Manning, Kansas that has since weakened. So in the few near term
of a 1-3 hours, we will continue to see a severe threat. Storm mode
has evolved a little more messy, so the threat of larger hail might
be slightly reduced as this messier storm mode and more storm interactions
ensue. Short term HRRR guidance does show hints of a lower hail size
and possible a more wind threat evolving with time in the watch area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

WV imagery indicates a west-southwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary extends from west central Kansas northeast into north
central Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) return early this evening, increasing
overnight as the SREF indicates another compact upper level
shortwave perturbation ejecting east-northeast out of the Southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains. In response, a stalled
boundary attendant to a surface low in eastern Colorado and
stretching northeast across west central Kansas into north central
Kansas is projected to lift slowly north through this evening.
Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies will continue to draw moisture
into south central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas with
mid/upper 50s(F) dewpoints spreading further north/northwest through
southwest Kansas with the lower 60s(F) moving up into south central
Kansas by early evening, increasing instability with MUCAPE values
upward of 1500-2000 J/kg.

Despite a fairly weak field of westerlies aloft, sufficient
instability combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates from
diurnal heating behind an exiting cloud shield in central Kansas
will set the stage for thunderstorm development as H5 vort maxima
associated with the small shortwave trough pushes through the high
plains early this evening, interacting with the aforementioned
boundary. In accordance with most CAMs, the best chance for storm
development is projected to be across extreme southwest Kansas into
west central Kansas generally after 21-22Z with storms then
spreading east-northeast into central Kansas overnight. This is also
supported by the latest HREF painting a corridor of a 70-90%
probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch initially in far
southwest Kansas, then tracking east-northeast across the remainder
of west central and southwest Kansas by late evening.

Dependent on lingering outflow boundaries from potential activity
tonight, thunderstorm chances (50-70%) continue into Thursday as
medium range ensembles indicate little change to the overall pattern
with a west-southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western
High Plains, downstream of an increasingly more negatively-tilted
upper level trough pushing ashore off the Pacific into southern
California. Surface low is projected to still be situated in eastern
Colorado with an attendant frontal boundary extending northeast
through northwest Kansas toward southern Nebraska. Another 24 hours
of prevailing southerlies will enhance moisture advection into south
central and much of southwest Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline
extending southward of the surface low into the vicinity of the New
Mexico/Texas border, providing ample instability. Once again,
thunderstorm development is expected sometime late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening as another series of H5 vort maxima
eject out of the Southern Rockies, interacting with the
aforementioned dryline/adjacent frontal boundary. A less active
period is forecast Friday as weak ridging aloft builds in across the
Western High Plains in conjunction with a cold front pushing
southward through western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western
Oklahoma, lowering precip chances.

Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing
southerlies further draw warmer air into western Kansas, not to
mention draw increased moisture into the area. With the latest HREF
showing a 50-70% probability of temperatures dropping below 55F in
west central and extreme southwest Kansas to a 60-80% probability of
temperatures slipping below 60F in central Kansas, look for
widespread lows in the 50s(F). Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected Thursday with potential lingering morning convection and
increased cloud cover. Expect afternoon highs generally up into the
lower/mid 70s(F) with the HREF showing a 70-90% probability of
temperatures exceeding 70F. However, highs may struggle to climb out
of the 60s(F) in areas of prolonged cloud cover/lingering rain.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely Friday in wake of a cold
front pushing through western Kansas Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

The latest CAMS are in good agreement with ongoing convection
(as of 22z Wednesday) near and north of Garden City increasing
in coverage and is expected to spread into the Dodge City and
Hays areas between 02z and 09z tonight. Liberal also has a
chance of experiencing a few thunderstorms between 01z and 06z.
These storms occurring before midnight may produce locally heavy
rainfall, large hail, and gusty winds. After midnight...weaker
and more scattered thunderstorms will remain possible across
much of western Kansas through early Thursday. In addition to
these storms, BUFR soundings indicate an extended period of low
clouds (between 500 and 1,500 feet AGL) tonight into early
Thursday. Forecast guidance also suggests a greater than 50%
chance of IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities in and near these
storms.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Sugden
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
343 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240500-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
343 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 /243 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
west central Kansas and extreme southwest Kansas early this
evening, then spread east-northeast toward central Kansas
overnight. The strongest storms will be capable of producing up to
2 to 3 inch hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 to 70 mph.
Isolated tornadoes are possible. Due to the expected slow moving
nature of potential storms, heavy rainfall associated with the
strongest storms may lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
southwest and central Kansas Thursday. The strongest storms will
be capable of producing 1 to 2 inch hail and damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed generally west of a Hays to
Coldwater line, generally after 5 PM CDT.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Hail             Garden City             37.98N 100.86W
04/23/2025  E2.00 Inch       Finney             KS   Public

            Pictures from social media show 2 inch hail
            in Garden City.

&&

Bennett

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
646 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Hail             Satanta                 37.44N 100.99W
04/23/2025  M1.00 Inch       Haskell            KS   Public

            Social media picture showing quarter size
            hail.

&&

Bennett

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
704 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     Hail             Garden City             37.98N 100.86W
04/23/2025  E1.00 Inch       Finney             KS   Law Enforcement

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>