Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms potential tonight... very uncertain still

- More storm potential tomorrow

- Drier midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

The early morning storms have lingered longer than previously thought.
This could have an impact on storm potential for this evening. The
two main ways are if the storms will impact CAPE at all. The second
is if the storms will lay out an outflow boundary that could trigger
an evening isolated storm or two. The CAMs are all over the place
with storm potential and location. Some of the CAMs have zero storms
at all. I could see this potential. If a storm does develop, there
is enough shear for an isolated supercell. The main threat would
be very large hail (2-4") should a supercell sustain itself. SPC
has a 2% tornado, but Kansas tornadoes in September are very rare...
seems dubious. Since this is such a low confidence forecast, have
broadbrushed 20% pops across the FA. The good news is that the rest
of the 99% FA should see nothing and no impacts.

Storm coverage tonight could potential impact coverage tomorrow. Therefore,
another low confidence forecast in storm development and location
exists for tomorrow. Have broadbrushed 20% across the FA for tomorrow.
Some of the storms could be strong or even severe, if they develop
in the first place. Otherwise, highs Tuesday will be well into the
80s. A few 90F readings cannot be ruled out across the Oklahoma border.

Cannot rule out isolated storm coverage Wednesday evening. Again,
storm development and location still remains very uncertain in this
flow pattern. The NBM pops are fine for now. Otherwise, highs will
be very warm with values in the upper 80s to around 90F. Lows will
be mild and in the 60s heading into Thursday morning.

Both the deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts
show shortwave ridging for Thursday. This would support the notion
of a dry forecast. Highs should peak into the lower 90s under this
mid level ridge. Lows in the morning will continue to be mild with
values in the 60s.

By next weekend, an upper level wave may start to approach the area
from the west and northwest. This would reintroduce pops and storms
chances back in the forecast. Some good news is that we could potentially
see cooler highs as these storm chances linger through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

VFR expected through TAF pd. It remains very uncertain tonight where
storms will be. Models are not in any agreement. Therefore, do not
have high enough confidence to insert TSRA in the TAFs for now. Will
watch and amend if trends become any more clear with time. Otherwise
breezy southerly winds 15-25 kt with higher gusts will continue during
the daylight hours. Winds should subside by dusk.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
206 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-090715-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
206 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 /106 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
favoring areas south and east of Dodge City. Primary hazards will
be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Another round of thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. While spatiotemporal
discrepancies between guidance members decreases confidence, the
highest probability of thunderstorms exists west of US-283.
Primary hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Springer

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
451 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     Hail             Greensburg              37.61N 99.29W
09/08/2025  M1.00 Inch       Kiowa              KS   Storm Chaser

&&