Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain will occur late tonight into Friday.

- With widespread cloud cover, high temperatures will struggle
  to reach 60 Friday.

- With clearing skies and light winds, expect lows in the 40s
  Saturday morning.

- Strong to severe t-storms are possible Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A strong cold front will pass across western Kansas tonight,
with winds shifting to the north at 20-30 mph. Winds will
gradually drop off Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes.
In the wake of the front, mid level convergence in the presence
of abundant moisture will lead to widespread rain, which will
taper off from north to south in the afternoon. The Grand
Ensemble shows 30-90% chances of at least .5" of rain, with the
highest probabilities (70-80%) about 30 miles either side of a
line from Dodge City to Pratt. The EPS probabilities are higher
than the Grand Ensemble and the GEFS's are lower. The smaller
amounts will be along I-70, across west central Kansas from
Scott City to Syracuse and near Elkhart. Some thunder is
possible through 6 am; and then more of a steady rain is
expected thereafter. Expect afternoon temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s, except perhaps some 60s along I-70 where partial sun
may develop by late afternoon. With clearing skies and light
winds, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into
the 40s Saturday morning. The record low for Dodge City is 42,
which will probably not be broken. The dewpoint temperature will
be a limiting factor on how cool it gets given a shallow
moisture layer that will persist near the ground due to past and
recent rains and unusually green vegetation for this time of
year.

A warming trend will commence over the weekend given a return
to south winds and surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies.
Eventually the dewpoints will climb well into the 60s by Monday
given the continued southerly low level flow. A weak shortwave
trough is advertised to approach the plains in northwest flow by
Monday afternoon. With reasonably cool temperatures at 500mb
and 50-60 kt winds at 200mb, along with moderate potential
instability, severe storms with large hail are a small possibility.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
across portions of southwest Kansas overnight, drifting slowly eastward
and potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites with periods
of MVFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys through daybreak. Low level stratus
is then expected to develop along and behind a cold front pushing
southward through western Kansas early this morning, resulting in
potential MVFR cigs developing in vicinity of KLBL, KDDC, and possibly
KGCK generally after 10-12Z. Meanwhile, additional showers/thunderstorms
are expected throughout the day, furthering the potential for brief
periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051045-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
533 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 /433 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog will reduce visibility to one-quarter mile or
less across portions of west central Kansas and extreme southwest
Kansas through mid-morning before dissipating. A Dense Fog Advisory
has been issued.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across portions
of central Kansas and southwest Kansas tonight. However, severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

KSZ078-088-050500-
Clark KS-Ford KS-
1127 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FORD AND
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Bloom, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bloom around 1130 PM CDT.
  Kingsdown around 1140 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9982 3758 10000 3759 9957 3729 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 279DEG 14KT 3749 9990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RBURG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1152 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

KSZ043-050530-
Scott KS-
1152 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY
THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shallow Water, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Grigston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 10093 3844 10097 3850 10069 3828 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 262DEG 16KT 3840 10088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RBURG