Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
109 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant, below normal afternoon temperatures will continue
  through next weekend.

- The exception will be Wednesday, when afternoon temperatures
  warm well into the 80s to near 90.

- Limited showers and thunderstorms are expected east of US 283
  Labor Day afternoon. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail are
  possible.

- Dry weather will prevail through the upcoming week, with rain
  chances limited, and few if any impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery at midnight clearly
showed stratus and fog expanding into the southeast zones.
Surface observations showed a saturated boundary layer at Pratt,
with visibility falling. Included areas of fog across eastern
zones into Monday morning, and again with a wet environment,
standing water, and light winds, will monitor for dense fog
development through sunrise.

Northwest midlevel flow will continue on Labor Day, northeast of
a 594 dm upper high centered over Arizona. Models show little
thermal change at 850 mb from Sunday, so temperatures Monday
afternoon will mirror Sunday's observations in the lower 80s,
with warmest temperatures in the upper 80s in the far southwest
zones. Most of Monday will be dry for most of SW KS. Did add
minimal pops for the eastern zones this afternoon, in response
to a shortwave moving south into central and eastern Kansas
during the afternoon. This added forcing for ascent will
interact with modest instability, with CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, to
generate limited shower and thunderstorms east of US 283. Some
CAMs such as 00z ARW, and 00z NAM, suggest this activity may
begin relatively early by midday. During the afternoon, modest
instability and bulk shear in the NW flow regime may support
some convective organization, with marginally severe wind/hail
possible, again east of US 283.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the midlevel ridge axis will remained
parked over the spine of the Rockies, with northwest midlevel
flow persisting. SW KS is expected to remain dry Tuesday, with
little change in afternoon temperatures, in the pleasant upper
70s and lower 80s. Convection prospects are expected to increase
some across the eastern zones/central Kansas, ahead of a cold
front passage expected Wednesday afternoon. Convergence on this
boundary warrants NBM's chance category pops in the southeast
zones Wednesday evening. Southwest downslope components and
prefrontal compression will result in a noticeably warmer
afternoon ahead of the cold front, well into the 80s to near
90.

Model guidance defers on timing of another cold front passage
late this week, with ECMWF/EPS currently suggesting a Friday
morning passage. As such, specific temperatures Thursday and
Friday afternoons are of lower confidence, pending better
agreement with the cold front's timing. Regardless, below normal
temperatures for early September are expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Light north winds will prevail through the period given a weak
pressure gradient. Any t-storms will probably be southeast of
KDDC this afternoon and evening along a weak frontal boundary.
There is a slight chance (20% or less) that a storm could move
in vicinity of KDDC between 19-21z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
215 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020715-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
215 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 /115 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Monday.

Areas of fog are expected across eastern zones Monday morning.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across eastern zones Monday
afternoon. A few storms may produce marginally severe wind gusts
or hail. Widespread or significant severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
235 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

KSZ088-089-012000-
Clark KS-Comanche KS-
235 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Sitka, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sitka around 240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9981 3728 9959 3701 9942 3700 9947
      3700 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 340DEG 15KT 3719 9968

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>