Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are high chances (60-90%) for thunderstorms tonight.

- Drier weather is predicted starting Monday.

- After cooler than average highs on Monday, a warming trend
  will start Tuesday, with highs returning to the 90s for late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

An upper level trough over the Rockies will progress eastward
today and approach the high plains this evening. Mid level
cooling will occur across eastern Colorado by afternoon; and
this coupled with post frontal moisture and elevated heating
will result in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. These
storms will form into a line with cold pool development and the
line with will sweep across southwest Kansas between 8 pm CDT
(Coolidge KS) to Stafford (1 am). Wind gusts as high as 60 mph
are possible with this storm line. Locally heavy rain is
predicted; but the fast moving nature of the line should limit
amounts to 2" or less. Therefore, a flood watch was not issued.
The various ensemble means (of course) show a smoothed rainfall
field, with amounts around .5" to .75". However, we know that
summertime rainfall across southwest Kansas tends to vary
greatly, with much higher amounts occurring with the strongest
and prolonged storms. The ensemble means show 10-30% chances for
1" or more of rain. In the post frontal air, highs today will
be in the 80s to mid 90s, with warmest readings at Medicine
Lodge.

The effective frontal boundary will be south of Kansas by
Monday; and this should keep any thunderstorms to the south of
the state line. Expect cooler than average highs in the lower to
upper 80s, with the warmest readings at Medicine Lodge. A slow
warming trend can be expected starting Tuesday as the upper
level trough progresses east and 500mb heights rise across the
plains. Highs will reach back into the 90s by Thursday and
continuing through the weekend. Given the upper level ridging
across the plains, t-storms are not forecasted. The various
ensemble guidances hint at a weakening of the upper level ridge
by next weekend, with mid to high level westerlies developing.
This would increase convergence along a surface trough in the
lee of the Rockies, resulting in small t-storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Convective outflow was surging southward through the TAF sites
early this morning. North to northeast winds at 15-20+ kts will
gradually subside toward morning, with light northeast winds at
10-12 kts after 12z. A storm complex is expected to move across
western Kansas after 03z or just before the end of the period.
These storms will have wind gusts up to 40+ kts. VFR conditions
will persist except for isolated areas of heavy rain toward the
end of the period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

KSZ061-062-100845-
Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
310 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CDT/245 AM MDT/...

At 310 AM CDT/210 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles northeast of Syracuse, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Hamilton and northwestern Kearny Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT/300 AM
MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 10179 3826 10163 3826 10134 3807 10125
      3802 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 253DEG 24KT 3812 10167

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TATRO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
313 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NW Dighton            38.50N 100.50W
08/10/2025  M50 MPH          Lane               KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW9499 Dighton.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
321 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

KSZ030-100915-
Trego KS-
321 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TREGO COUNTY THROUGH 415 AM
CDT...

At 321 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Quinter to 6 miles
southeast of Collyer to near Utica. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Voda around 325 AM CDT.
  Wakeeney around 335 AM CDT.
  Trego Center around 340 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
west central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9960 3870 10015 3913 10015 3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 218DEG 41KT 3913 10015 3895 10007 3872 10013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

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