Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible late today and early tonight (50-70%).
  Some storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and
  isolated strong gusty winds. The heavy rainfall may result in
  minor water issues in some areas.

- Another chance of thunderstorms (20-30%) will be possible late
  Tuesday, mainly across west central and north central Kansas.
  Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main
  hazards from these storms.

- For the remainder of the work week there will be a chance for
  thunderstorms almost each evening and overnight minimum
  temperatures in the 70s by mid week will drive heat risk into
  the elevated category (2 of 4) east of highway 283.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Surface frontal/zone of near surface convergence and vorticity
will be somewhere close to an Elkhart - eastern Finney county -
Hays line by early afternoon through late afternoon as the
frontal boundary is not a fast moving one. Given the steep low
level lapse rates, moderately high LFCs/LCL in the initiation
environment, a brief period of landspout activity cannot be
ruled our before storms grow upscale to the east in a more rich
moisture environment enhancing the wind/hail threat. The ARW
which has been known to over-predict convection was far more
robust with coverage of multi-cell clusters later this afternoon
and evening than was the HRRR; which modeled compact single
cell strong to severe outflows through early evening hours
(through 7 pm) on the overnight runs. The HRRR also showed
higher terrain convection over NE NM and SE CO spreading into
the warm sector ahead of the surface front after 00z near
Elkhart - expanding eastward in a multicell cluster with hail
and wind potential through the balance of the later evening.
These models are appearing to converge a bit in solutions from
the immediate previous runs, favoring convection unzipping right
along the boundary and slowly moving east. Residual rain and
lighting might be ongoing though the overnight especially in the
post frontal zone or roughly the northwest one half of the area
(NW of a Meade to Larned line).

In addition to the severe risk, the excessive rain outlook is
in the slight category (2 of 4) for the risks of rapid onset
flooding. As mentioned in the WPC’s discussion, the possibility
of the slight risk are being underdone is based on the more
robust CAMS overnight but at this time is limited to the
counties east of highway 23. A robust 850-500 mb layer of
moisture advection overlays a PWAT field ranging from 1.4 to
about 1.8 inches from Garden City to the easternmost counties...
and even exceed one inch as far west as the Colorado state line.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches locally are modeled by the
HRRR, without any appreciable signal of storm cell training
which is a good thing given the above normal soil moisture on
the short and long term over much of the CWA.

The proximity of the surface cold frontal boundary and
potential for evening and overnight rains will play a part in
moderating the temperatures a for the early part of the week.
However this airmass gets heated back up with the return to
southerly and downsloping surface winds by Wednesday and onward
leading to increasing daytime highs as well as higher nighttime
lows in the 70s. The result is a slight increasing heat risk
into the elevated category (level 2 of 4).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

KDDC radar observations show scattered thunderstorms across
southwest KS, affecting mainly only DDC and LBL, with GCK and
HYS on the periphery of the convective activity. This activity
will gradually diminish over the next couple hours, allowing all
terminals to return to VFR. Outside of brief outflow winds that
will produce erratic and strong wind gusts, winds will weaken to
light and variable overnight before restrengthening tomorrow
morning into the 14-17 kt range with gusts of 24-27 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Springer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
311 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
311 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 /211 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be likely late today and early tonight. The
main hazards from the strongest storms will be heavy rainfall,
wind gusts up to 60 mph and possibly isolated hail up to the size
of a quarter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A slight chance for strong thunderstorms will be possible on
Tuesday, mainly across west central and north central Kansas.
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main hazards from these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed but rainfall reports are
encouraged.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Dodge City        37.77N 99.97W
06/23/2025  M59 MPH          Ford               KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KDDC Dodge City Regional
            Airport.

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

KSZ063-064-077-240015-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...
NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN AND NORTHERN GRAY COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
CDT...

At 627 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southwest of
Kalvesta to 11 miles southwest of Jetmore. Movement was north at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Kalvesta around 635 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10060 3826 9958 3792 10009 3791 10022
      3790 10023 3784 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 178DEG 24KT 3798 10043 3800 10007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
638 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Dodge City        37.77N 99.97W
06/23/2025  M58 MPH          Ford               KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KDDC Dodge City Regional
            Airport.

&&

JRJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
648 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

KSZ064-065-079-240045-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
648 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN...PAWNEE
AND NORTHERN EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sanford to 7 miles north of Spearville.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rozel, Frizell, and Sanford around 655 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ash Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 9938 3809 9991 3792 9996 3798 9905
      3834 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 236DEG 25KT 3819 9926 3795 9978

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
649 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

KSZ084-085-240045-
Stevens KS-Morton KS-
649 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MORTON AND SOUTHWESTERN STEVENS
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Elkhart, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wilburton around 700 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 10187 3719 10119 3699 10155 3699 10204
      3701 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 215DEG 24KT 3702 10189

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

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