Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
526 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today with highs around 80 degrees.

- Fire weather concerns today and Thursday that should be monitored
for future fire weather headlines.

- Ensemble models show the potential for another wind event Friday
with wrap around precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

An upper level ridge will continue move over the Rockies today and
shift eastward over the next few days. This will bring dry
conditions to western Kansas and mostly clear skies through Tuesday
morning. Winds will generally be from the southwest today becoming
breezy in the afternoon. This in combination of low RHs will bring
elevated fire danger to the area. Short range ensemble models show
winds to be slightly below red flag criteria this afternoon. If
winds become stronger than expected a red flag warning may need to
be issued. Models then suggest a weak shortwave moving over the area
tonight. This will briefly shift winds to the north Tuesday but curl
back to a southerly direction Tuesday night. No precipitation is
expected with this disturbance but there may be an increase in
clouds. Another upper level shortwave will slide over the Plains
Wednesday, but once again no precipitation is expected. An even
stronger system is expected late week. Ensemble models suggest this
system to bring very strong winds to western Kansas with a chance of
wrap around precipitation as it passes to the east. This system is
still several days out and the exact track is still uncertain.

As for temperatures, highs will reach to around 80 degrees this
afternoon with lows in the 30s to low 40s tonight. Highs then
decrease into the 60s to around 70 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the 70s on Thursday. If the next system comes to
fruition, highs in the 60s are expected for Friday and 50s Saturday.
We then quickly rebound into the 60s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through today with mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be from the southwest, gusting to
over 20 knots late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
522 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-111030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
522 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 /422 AM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Elevated fire risk is expected this afternoon as RHs dip into the
teens. However, winds look to remain below critical fire weather
conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Fire risk will increase Thursday as RHs dip into the teens and
wind speeds increase.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.