Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

976 
WWUS83 KDDC 260120
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
720 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025



KSZ062-063-074>077-084>087-260230-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250226T0200Z/
Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Morton-Stevens-Seward-
Meade-
720 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.



$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue Tuesday afternoon.

- Dry cold front passage early Wednesday morning will bring
  strong north winds and noticeably cooler temperatures
  Wednesday.

- Another rapid warming trend Thursday and Friday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Saturday. Light rain
  is probable Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Unseasonably pleasant weather was being enjoyed once again
midday Tuesday. With more of a SWly downslope contribution in
the wind field, temperatures will easily soar well into the 70s
this afternoon. The forecasted high temperature of 75 at DDC is
23 degrees above late February normals.

Shortwave rippling through the northern plains will send a dry
cold front through SW KS tonight, expected to clear the Oklahoma
border by 3 am Wednesday. Went at or above the strongest
guidance for this northerly wind shift tonight, with some gusts
near 30 mph expected. An increase in cirrus and some midlevel
cloud is expected tonight and early Wednesday, but that will be
the extent of this frontal passage's fanfare. Some sprinkles are
most probable along I-70 tonight, but even here, the probability
of measurable rain is very low (dry forecast, pops < 15%).

Wednesday will be noticeably cooler, with cold advection
reducing 850 mb temperatures to the single digits C. Still, with
increasing sunshine in the afternoon, temperatures will remain
well above normal, warming well through the 50s. A traditionally
windy Kansas day is expected, with north winds averaging 20-30
mph. Kept wind grids near the 90%ile of the NBM Wednesday, and
several notches above the statistical guidance. Sprawling
Pacific high pressure will allow for most locations to fall
below freezing sunrise Thursday.

The cooler air mass will be very fleeting, with sunshine and
gentle westerly downslope returning temperatures to the 60s as
soon as Thursday afternoon. All models show strong warming
Friday, supporting a warmup into the lower 70s. Light pressure
gradients and balmy temperatures will make for an unseasonably
mild end of February.

Global models and ensembles remain in good agreement placing a
compact shortwave and closed midlevel cyclone near Arizona
Saturday. Broad ridging ahead of this system will ensure a
pleasant start to March and meteorological spring on Saturday,
with above normal temperatures, sunshine and light winds.
This system will eject onto the plains Sunday, being quickly
kicked along by the next, much stronger trough arriving in
California Sunday. Any precipitation would occur on Sunday, and
with the lack of cold air, any precipitation would take the form
of rain. NBM probability of measurable rain (QPF > 0.01 inch)
remains in the 30-40% range for most of SW KS, and NBM pops for
light rain Sunday ticked higher into the chance category this
update.

The next, much stronger longwave trough will produce impacts on
the plains Monday and Tuesday, early next week. Way too early
for any detailed specifics, especially since there are timing
issues with 12z ECMWF notably slower with the trough's eastward
progression. That stated, a dry slot scenario is favored in
SW KS during early March, and that dry slot evolution is favored
among many ensemble members. Strong north winds and much colder
air would most likely dump in around next Tuesday, one week from
today.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with variable amounts
of cirrus. SW winds will prevail through 00z Wed, gusting
23-28 kts. A dry cold front will sweep through the airports
06-09z Wed, accompanied by an increase in north winds. Expect
north wind gusts near 30 kts after cold front passage, late
tonight and continuing through Wednesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261400-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
200 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 /100 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.