Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Dodge City, KS

197 
WWUS83 KDDC 101954
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
254 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...Enhanced Fire Danger This Afternoon...

KSZ030-031-043>046-110100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250411T0100Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-
254 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 030 Trego, Fire Weather Zone 
  031 Ellis, Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott, Fire Weather Zone 044 
  Lane, Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness and Fire Weather Zone 046 
  Rush.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...North 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
209 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced fire danger for today and Saturday

- Temperatures in the 90s and approaching 100 degrees for areas near
the Colorado border

- Mainly dry through the weekend and then some small chances of rain
next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

07z surface observations and upper air analysis shows a large ridge
over the western CONUS with a fast moving shortwave trough in the
northern plains and a jet streak over Nebraska and northern Kansas.
This trough is bringing a cold front into northern Kansas and should
pass through all of Kansas by sunrise.

Today as the cold front passes into Oklahoma and daytime heating
leads to better mixing we will see the winds increase out of the
north during the day and wind gusts will likely be over 30 mph this
afternoon.  The cold air advection will lead to 850 mb temperatures
at 10-14 (C) with the colder temperatures in north central Kansas.
This should lead highs to be in the 70s.

Friday the ridge in the west will slowly move into the central
Rockies and the cool air mass exits to the east.  Winds will turn
back to the south and milder air enters from the west.  The stronger
heating occurs on Saturday as a shortwave moves over the Colorado
rockies develops a surface low in the front range and the pressure
gradient tightens and lead to strong southwest wind by afternoon.
Temperatures in the 850 mb level are forecast to range from 17(C) in
the east to around 28 (C) along the Colorado border.  NBM guidance
has 100% chance of 90 degrees or warmer highs along and west of
highway 83 on Saturday and even a 40-50% chance of 100 degrees or
greater along the Colorado border.  The warm air will continue into
Sunday and then a trough in the northern plains will bring another
cold front through Kansas late Sunday night into early Monday
morning.  This front along with the best lift in the 700 mb levels
along the I-70 corridor will lead to some small chances (~20%) of
rain and storms.

Long range ensembles have some rain and storm chances returning for
the middle of next week as model forecasts have a quick moving
shortwave trough in the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

VFR flight category for all airports during the time period.
Winds will increase behind a cold front that will pass through
this morning and winds will increase after 15Z to sustained at
15-25 kts and gusts around 30 kts at times. Winds should
diminish after sunset and become light between 03-06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Enhanced fire danger today for much of southwest Kansas during the
afternoon hours.  Winds will pick up behind a cold front out of the
north to northwest to 20-25 mph and gusts over 35 mph with lowest
relative humidity values falling to around 15%.  Another enhanced
fire danger is possible mainly along and west of the highway 283
corridor on Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro