High Wind Watch 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

822 
WWUS73 KDDC 130717
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
217 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086-132100-
/O.CON.KDDC.HW.A.0002.250314T1600Z-250315T0200Z/
Scott-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Morton-Stevens-
Seward-
Including the cities of Johnson City, Satanta, Hugoton, Scott
State Lake, Ulysses, Deerfield, Syracuse, Garden City, Liberal,
Elkhart, Lakin, Scott City, and Sublette
217 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 /117 AM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025/

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Finney, Grant, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny, Morton, Seward, 
  Stanton, Stevens, and Scott Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

SPRINGER

903 
WWUS73 KDDC 131751
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1251 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086-141100-
/O.UPG.KDDC.HW.A.0002.250314T1600Z-250315T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.HW.W.0002.250314T1600Z-250315T0200Z/
Scott-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Morton-Stevens-
Seward-
Including the cities of Garden City, Hugoton, Deerfield, Scott
State Lake, Satanta, Ulysses, Johnson City, Syracuse, Elkhart,
Scott City, Liberal, Sublette, and Lakin
1251 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 /1151 AM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM 
CDT /8 PM MDT/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Finney, Grant, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny, Morton, Seward, 
  Stanton, Stevens, and Scott Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

BURGERT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
342 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Thursday afternoon and
  Thursday evening west of Hays to Coldwater line. In this area
  there is greater than a 60% chance for the afternoon humidity
  will be 15% or less and winds greater than 20 mph.

- Strong gusty north winds will develop Friday afternoon. A
  High Wind Watch is in effect west of Highway 83.

- Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions possible Saturday across
  southwest Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Early this morning, a 500 mb southern branch shortwave trough
was located over the Four Corners region, while a stronger,
amplified upper level trough was located off the California
coast. As this initial upper level wave passes to our south
today, the next, more significant, amplified upper level trough
will move onshore and quickly cross the southwestern United
States. This upper level storm system will be the primary focus
of interest as it moves into the central plains early Friday.

On Thursday as this next upper level trough/low deepens and
moves towards the Four Corners region, an area of low pressure
will develop along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Warm, dry
conditions over western Kansas, combined with increasing winds,
will result in near critical to critical fire risk across
western Kansas. Based on the warming trend at the 850mb level in
the short term models over southwest Kansas on Thursday, it
appears that the NBM guidance will continue to exhibit its low
high temperature forecast bias observed over the past several
days. Given the ongoing dry conditions, these warmer afternoon
temperatures, and gusty south winds on Thursday afternoon, the
current red flag warning has been expanded to areas as far east
as Highway 183. More details on the fire weather weather
reasoning can be found below in the fire weather discussion
below.

On Friday, the short term ensemble forecasts remain consistent
with the previous LREF clusters and many global deterministic
model from previous runs, indicating a deepening upper level low
moving into southwest Kansas by early morning, as a surface low
intensifies. This deepening surface low over southwest Kansas
will move northeast Friday afternoon as the negatively tilted
upper level low crosses western Kansas. As the system begins to
exit western Kansas during the afternoon, a cold front will
cross the region and as a result a significant increase in
northwest winds. By 21z Friday NBM guidance still has >50%
chance for wind gusts >50mph west of highway 83 while based on
mean 850 millibar winds from the SREF along with the BUFR gusts
via momentum transfer and 75th percentile in wind gusts (which
often verifies better from these event a day or two out) favors
gusts as high as 60 mph being possible at times. Given the
current BUFR momentum transfer, 850mb wind forecast and the
latest 75th percentile in wind gusts it appears the stronger
winds may verify so will be issuing a High Wind Watch for ares
west of highway 83.

Afternoon humidity values will range from 20 to 30 percent so
despite the increasing winds it does not appear the critical
for a red flag warning will be reached. Still based on the
strong northwest winds developing...any burning should not be
attempted!

Also keep in mind that as the wind pick up late day we may also
have isolated reduced visibilities due to areas of blowing dust
late Friday which may end up being more likely for some most
area then the chance for precipitation.

These very windy conditions will persist through early Friday
night and then begin to gradually decrease some on Saturday, and
any chance of light precipitation will diminish. The dry and
windy conditions on Saturday across western Kansas will create
another day of dangerous fire weather.

Following a cool start to the weekend, western Kansas can
expect another warm up late next week into early the following
week, as upper level ridging and improving westerly downslope
flow develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Northerly winds at 10 knots or less today will become light
early overnight as an area of low pressure deepens over
Oklahoma in response to a short wave trough crossing the
Southern Plains. These light winds overnight will become
southerly early Thursday as this first system moves east and
surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies in response
to our next, stronger approaching upper level trough/low. VFR
conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected from Thursday
through Saturday.

A deepening upper level low will approach southwest Kansas on
Thursday, resulting in falling surface pressures along the lee
of the Rockies. Based on the warming trend at the 850mb level in
the short term models over southwest Kansas on Thursday, it
appears that the NBM guidance will continue to exhibit its low
high forecast bias observed over the past several days. Given
the ongoing dry conditions, these warmer afternoon temperatures,
and gusty south winds on Thursday afternoon, the current red
flag warning has been expanded to areas as far east as Highway
183. The probability of humidity values less than 15 percent
and winds greater than 20 mph is now 60% or higher in these
locations.

On Friday, the winds will be the primary driving force for the
dangerous fire weather conditions. After 21z Friday, guidance
still indicates a >50% chance for wind gusts >50 mph west of
Highway 83, while mean 850 millibar winds from the SREF, along
with BUFR gusts via momentum transfer, favor gusts west of
Highway 283 with occasional gusts exceeding 50 mph late Friday
afternoon and early evening. Afternoon humidity values however
will range from 20 to 30 percent so red flag warning criteria
will not be met. Nevertheless, any outdoor burning should be
avoided due to the strong winds. The area closest to reaching
red flag warning will be south of Pratt and east of Ashland so
we will be monitoring this area closely.

These very windy conditions will persist through early Friday
night and then gradually decrease on Saturday, with any chance
of light precipitation diminishing. The dry and windy conditions
on Saturday across western Kansas will create another day of
dangerous fire weather.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
223 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-130730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
223 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 /123 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for western Kansas Thursday. See
the latest fire weather messages for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Elevated fire danger will be possible Saturday as northerly winds
remain strong with RHs dipping into the 20s to teens.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.