Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail larger than 2",
  strong damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
  possible this afternoon and early tonight. A tornado or two
  can not be ruled out late today across extreme southwest
  Kansas.

- Heavy rainfall tonight from these thunderstorms may result in
  localized flash flooding along the Oklahoma border and areas
  east of Liberal. A flood watch is in effect for these
  locations.

- There are chance for severe thunderstorms Friday evening and
  overnight near the Oklahoma border (15 to near 30%).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Cool air is in place across most of southwest Kansas. The
tornado concern has diminished some although there is still
a narrow window from Elkhart to Hugoton where there is enough
instability. The threat for severe storms with large hail will
persist across the counties bordering Oklahoma through 9 pm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Earlier this morning, an upper level wave, based on 700-400 mb
differential vorticity advection and associated ongoing light
convection, was moving across northern Kansas. A second upper
level wave appears to be located near the Four Corners region
based on 400 mb PVU. At the surface, a boundary extended from
extreme southeastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle with
widespread stratus and an easterly upslope flow located north of
this boundary. Visible satellite imagery indicates breaks in
the low cloud cover along and north of the boundary. Clearing
skies near this surface boundary will be critical for afternoon
thunderstorm development as this surface boundary moves across
extreme southwestern Kansas today.

Severe Weather Potential Late Today into Early Tonight.
Short term models were in agreement and also had run to run
consistency in moving this surface boundary into southwest
Kansas by early afternoon. Partial clearing will support
increased surface-based instability. Given this combined with
0-6 km shear exceeding 40 knots and continued moisture
advection on southeasterly flow...conditions appear favorable
for severe thunderstorm development by mid afternoon as the HRRR
suggests. Agree with the SPC’s assessment that a few supercells
may develop along the boundary late in the day and what storms
that do develop will be capable of producing very large hail
(greater than 2 inches in diameter) and damaging winds. Low
level shear near the boundary may also support a brief, isolated
tornado or two while storms remain discrete. The corridor of
greatest risk currently appears to be from south of Syracuse
through Garden City and Dodge City, extending toward Pratt.

Secondary Storm Threat Overnight.
Storms that develop this afternoon will move southeast into
Oklahoma by early evening. However as these storms begin to exit
southwest Kansas another cluster of thunderstorms, originating
earlier in the day across eastern Colorado, is expected to enter
southwest Kansas. These evening storms may bring strong
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Since this second round will
track over areas already affected by the afternoon storms,
training cells could lead to localized flash flooding. Given the
current rainfall forecast between 1.5 and 2.5 inches south and
east of Dodge City, latest Flash Flood Guidances and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall moving over the same area
overnight will go ahead on issuing a Flood Watch for excessive
flooding. The severe threat should diminish around or shortly
after midnight as storms shift south into Oklahoma.

Another Risk for Severe Weather Friday.
Rain cooled outflow from tonights storms will push the surface
boundary south into the Texas Panhandle. The SREF model keeps
this boundary south of the Oklahoma border through 00Z Saturday
but a moist upslope flow will persist across extreme southwest
Kansas. By late Friday, renewed instability and increasing lift
near the boundary may trigger additional afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. These storms will likely move southeast along a
corridor of enhanced moisture and instability. Wind gusts up to
60 mph and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards
from Saturdays storms.

After a brief break in convection on Saturday night,
thunderstorm chances return Sunday. A northern branch upper low
will move across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes,
allowing a cold front to sweep across southwest Kansas. Forecast
guidance currently indicates a 30–50% chance for CAPE >500 J/kg
and shear >30 kt, supporting the potential for late afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. The best overlap of shear and
instability currently appears to be focused near and south of
the Oklahoma border.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening,
spreading eastward through southwest Kansas into central Kansas
overnight, increasing the potential for MVFR cigs/vsbys in vicinity
of affected TAF sites. Low level stratus developing early Friday
morning may result in IFR cigs toward daybreak. Other than gusty
outflow winds from showers and thunderstorms spreading east through
western Kansas, expect light and variable winds overnight as a
surface low shifts eastward near and along the Oklahoma line in
southwest Kansas into south central Kansas. Northerly winds 10 to
20kt are forecast to develop generally after 12-14Z as the surface
low moves farther east.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ087>090.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
155 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 /1255 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. A few of the stronger storms will be
capable of producing hail larger than 2 inches, strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon
and tonight. An isolated tornado or two also cannot be ruled out.

Some thunderstorms will be capable of producing periods of heavy
rainfall tonight. This may cause localized flash flooding along
the Oklahoma border and east of Liberal. A flood watch is in
effect tonight for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There will be slight chance for severe thunderstorms on Friday
across extreme southwest Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 3 pm south of a Syracuse
to Garden City to Dodge City line.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

KSZ075-076-085-086-052345-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN
GRANT...NORTHERN STEVENS AND SOUTHERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
CDT...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from near Satanta southwest to 7 miles northwest of
Feterita, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sublette around 630 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 10155 3737 10155 3758 10066 3724 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 254DEG 22KT 3743 10099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
622 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             5 SW Satanta            37.39N 101.05W
06/05/2025  M1.00 Inch       Haskell            KS   Broadcast Media

            Report was from KAKE storm chaser.

&&

RCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
727 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

KSZ074-075-060115-
Stanton KS-Grant KS-
727 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN GRANT AND STANTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 726 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from 5 miles east of Johnson to near Saunders, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Big Bow around 730 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Ulysses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 10204 3773 10130 3740 10128 3740 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 265DEG 24KT 3758 10167

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

UMSCHEID

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
729 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     Hail             1 NE Johnson City       37.58N 101.75W
06/05/2025  E0.75 Inch       Stanton            KS   Public

0724 PM     Hail             3 E Johnson City        37.58N 101.71W
06/05/2025  E1.00 Inch       Stanton            KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
954 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Bloom               37.49N 99.96W
06/05/2025  M58 MPH          Ford               KS   Public

            Recorded wind gust from private weather
            station.

&&

MU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1033 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

KSZ085-086-060400-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-
1033 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SEWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1033 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woods, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Woods around 1040 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 10124 3725 10129 3736 10086 3710 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 259DEG 22KT 3718 10118

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KBJ