Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant thunderstorm chances (60-80%) tonight.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures likely tonight and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Mesoscale update...

A cold pool has developed with a storm line across western
Kansas. Although discrete storms with hail did materialize
ahead of the line, this storm mode is ending and the focus going
forward through 1 am will be damaging wind potential, with
gusts to 60 mph. The greatest wind potential will be along and
south of a frontal boundary across the southern tier of
southwest Kansas where DCAPE values are still around 1100 j/kg.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level shortwave trough
swinging east through western Colorado. Near the surface, a stalled
frontal boundary extends from the Texas Panhandle northeast through
western Oklahoma.

Another round of thunderstorms (60-80% chance) can be expected
tonight as the SREF indicates a compact upper level shortwave trough
pushing east through the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
eastern Colorado/western Kansas early in the period. Ahead of the
approaching system, a prevailing east-northeast upslope flow will
continue to support a fairly moist air mass with surface dewpoints
holding generally in the 60s(F), although only providing moderate
instability with MLCAPE values upward of 1500 to 2000 J/kg due to
lack of recovery from the slow departure of this morning's MCS.
Still, diurnally-driven thunderstorm storm development is likely
just lee of the Rockies as ejecting H5 vort maxima associated with
the shortwave trough interact with a broad field of steepening mid-
level lapse rates within the aforementioned upslope flow this
afternoon. Storms are then projected to spread eastward, eventually
evolving into an MCS, into west central and southwest Kansas later
this evening and eventually into central Kansas overnight as suggested
by most CAMs. The HREF also shows a broad 70-90% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch from west central Kansas southeast
through a portion of southwest Kansas into south central Kansas by
early Monday. The primary threat with these storms will be strong
outflow winds in excess of 60-70 mph. A few preliminary thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out late this afternoon into early evening in vicinity
of the stalled boundary closer to south central Kansas as peak heating
is realized. Any lingering showers/storms early Monday are expected
to give way to drier conditions Tuesday as the upper level shortwave
trough pushes off to the east while ridging aloft begins to build
back in across the Intermountain West.

Temperatures near the seasonal average are likely tonight as slightly
cooler air filters southwest into the area on the north side of a
near-stationary boundary to our south, not to mention cooling from
showers/thunderstorms moving through overnight. Look for lows generally
in the 60s(F) with the HREF showing a 80-90% probability of temperatures
slipping below 65F in far southwest Kansas to a 70-80% probability
of below 70F in south central Kansas. Below normal average temperatures
are forecast Monday with southwest/central Kansas remaining on the
north side of a stalled frontal boundary to our south in western Oklahoma,
as well as lingering cloud cover/precipitation from the night previous.
The cooler air mass will lower H85 temperatures to a little below
20C in central Kansas Monday to near 20C farther west. Considering
the HREF indicates a 70-80% probability of temperatures climbing above
75F in west central Kansas to a 60-80% probability of nudging above
80F in central/south central Kansas, afternoon highs may struggle
to climb out of the 70s(F) out west with the lower/mid 80s(F) farther
east. A minimal rebound to temperatures is expected Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals
over the next 6 hours with heavy rain reducing surface
visibilities to 3-4 SM and the threat of downburst winds over 50
kts. After 12Z we should see the thunderstorm activity start to
subside and by later this afternoon we could see scattered
thunderstorms develop between 21-03Z. Cloud ceilings in general
should be VFR with occasional MVFR during the thunderstorms.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-111000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
205 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 /105 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
overnight. Wind gusts in excess of 60 to 70 mph and hail as large
as ping pong ball size are the main concerns. Locally heavy rain
is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding are
appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Plains City       37.28N 100.55W
08/10/2025  E67 MPH          Meade              KS   Public

            Site UP332 recorded a 67 mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SW Greensburg         37.56N 99.34W
08/11/2025  M66 MPH          Kiowa              KS   Public

            PWS - Kents station.

&&

GT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
218 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Byers                   37.79N 98.87W
08/11/2025  E80 MPH          Pratt              KS   Public

            public report of 80 mph winds and trees
            down.

&&

GT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
224 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Greensburg          37.61N 99.25W
08/11/2025  M58 MPH          Kiowa              KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP323 2.3 E Greensburg
            (UPR).

&&

GT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
227 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Hardtner          37.02N 98.69W
08/11/2025  M64 MPH          Barber             KS   Public

            PWS - KZLF_Transmitter_Site.

&&

GT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
228 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 S Byers               37.72N 98.87W
08/11/2025                   Pratt              KS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees were blown down with 80 mph winds.

&&

jdf