Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
458 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening
  with thunderstorms across the region, alongside a marginal
  risk of localized flooding.

- Warming and drying trend then expected Friday through early
  next week, with critical fire weather conditions possible
  Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Another day of afternoon thunderstorms ongoing across the CWA
currently. While shear may be underwhelming, mesoanalysis shows
plentiful surface based CAPE thanks to better moisture at the
surface, with a band of 2000+ J/kg essentially riding the I-25
corridor and eastwards. This has resulted in several stout
thunderstorms utilizing this instability, but with a lack of
shear support most of them have been strengthening and then
dropping out, though as of this writing we do currently have one
severe with a decent hail core across the meeting point of
Albany/Laramie/Platte Counties. Better surface heating has
likely also helped with this activity as cloud cover has been
scant this morning as well. Looking to the rest of the evening,
expect this activity to continue propagating eastwards with the
severe and heavy rain risk continuing into Nebraska before
storms wane and/or move out of the region by later this evening.

Tomorrow we see the beginning of a warming trend as ridging
takes back over and moisture exits. A very isolated storm could
occur off of the high terrain during the afternoon, but chances
are much lower without support. Temperatures begin to jump back
up with highs in the mid 80's to 90's, with RH values back into
the teens to near single digits for our western counties.
Thankfully winds should be light enough to preclude a critical
fire weather day, but that should change over the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Saturday...The warming and drying trend continues under southwest
flow aloft. With a drier airmass, and 700 mb temperatures near 17
Celsius, the day looks dry, with maximum temperatures from the upper
80s to near 100 degrees.

Sunday...500 mb heights rise even more to 5920 meters, and with 700
mb temperatures near 18 Celsius, high temperatures will warm a few
more degrees at most locations. Continued dry with limited low and
mid level moisture.

Monday...Ridging aloft remains entrenched across the region,
producing another hot day with highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

Tuesday...We may see another influx of monsoonal moisture, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
With more cloud cover and precipitation coverage, maximum
temperatures will be a bit cooler, though still in the mid 80s to
mid 90s.

Wednesday...Models indicate a wet pattern with the influx of
monsoonal moisture overhead, along with low level upslope southeast
winds. Thus, expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, which will also help to lower temperatures even more,
into the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours outside of any
thunderstorms near sites this evening. These storms could bring
MVFR or worse conditions alongside gusty and erratic winds.
Overall wind field otherwise remains light to breezy through the
period, with speeds 10-20 knots on average expected. Cloud decks
will remain lower and SCT to BKN this evening due to ongoing
precipitation, but should lift tonight and become medium to
high based. There is a chance of a shower or storm tomorrow,
mostly near KLAR or KCYS, but probabilities are too low to
include at this time.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CG