Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
  across portions of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.
  Main concerns will be large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
  rain.

- Cooler and wetter weather will prevail for Tuesday and
  Wednesday before a warming trend develops for Thursday
  through Saturday, with chances for late day showers and
  thunderstorms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Surface analysis from late this morning shows a cold front along the
northern border of the CWA in Wyoming. This cold front will continue
to push south throughout the afternoon, bringing widely scattered
storms to the area through the overnight hours. Hi-Res guidance
shows storms developing over the high terrain early this afternoon
with lift from the front and pushing eastward into Nebraska by mid
to late afternoon. Several rounds of storms look possible through
this evening as some CAMs show storms continuing to initiate
off the high terrain through the afternoon. The environment east
of the Laramie Range remains ripe for potentially severe
storms. Model soundings from the GFS show anywhere from 1200 to
1800 J/kg of MUCAPE with effective shear values of 30 to 40 kts.
This would be supportive of large hail, especially in the
Nebraska panhandle where MUCAPE values are higher. Mid-level
lapse rates are also supportive of large hail. Strong,
potentially damaging winds are also a threat with these storms
with DCAPE values close to 1000 J/kg. The more clustery nature
of storms that Hi-Res guidance shows also lends itself to a wind
threat. Although probably not likely, cannot rule out an
isolated tornado in the southern Nebraska panhandle where MLCAPE
values are around 1000 J/kg with favorable shear. Heavy rain can
also be expected in these storms as PWATs approach 1 inch. Flash
flooding could be possible as storms will be numerous. The
strongest storms will likely be out of the area by late this
evening, however more stratiform precipitation will begin to
fill in over the area behind the cold front.

Low stratus and some lingering rain showers will be possible Tuesday
morning behind the strong cold front. Low stratus and mostly cloudy
skies throughout much of the day will help keep temperatures
cool. 700 mb temperatures will be near 0C thanks to the cold
front, contributing to the below average highs in the 50s and
60s on Tuesday. The upper-level trough axis will sit over the
CWA tomorrow, so cannot rule out a few isolated storms during
the afternoon, however, cooler temperatures will keep the
atmosphere more stable, limiting any severe potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Multiple shortwaves will gives us precipitation
chances throughout the work week mainly in the afternoon and
evening. However, starting Wednesday we begin to have our westerly
downslope become the predominant pattern allowing temperatures to
rise from the mid 60's and into the 70's Thursday with more
widespread 70's on Friday into the weekend.

Tuesday, another shortwave swings through the intermountain west
from the early afternoon and into the evening. There looks to be a
vort max associated with this shortwave that may be the primary
means for lift. On top of the vort max there will be a little bit of
some residual moisture for the vort max to lift for some light
showers. Given the lack of real synoptic support anything severe is
not likely, however some lightning and thunder may be possible.

Wednesday into Thursday, A midlevel trough pushes through continuing
the rain chances for the Intermountain west. There should be enough
synoptic lift and well as the vorticity gradient to produce stronger
storms than Tuesday. However, model guidance shows dry air filling
into the region potentially cutting off any convection into the
overnight hours or evening if that dry air arrives sooner.

Thursday into Friday, westerly flow starts to dominate the pattern
allowing us to get a small break from the precipitation chances. Dry
air looks to start filing into the lower elevations giving us a dry
layer near the surface that may possibly not allow precipitation
from reaching the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Convective showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue
to push east through the area for the next couple of hours. The
best chance of thunderstorm impacts is at KBFF and KSNY. Low
clouds will move in tonight, which will drop CIGS to MVFR/IFR
across the area. Low clouds will slowly scatter out and lift
Tuesday morning, with conditions improving to VFR Tuesday
afternoon. A strong northerly wind will persist tonight,
subsiding Tuesday morning/afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...WFO-RIW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
112 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-031915-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
112 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
  across portions of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.
  Main concerns will be large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
  rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

- Cooler and wetter weather will prevail for Tuesday and
  Wednesday before a warming trend develops for Thursday
  through Saturday, with chances for late day showers and
  thunderstorms each day.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
444 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Hail             3 E Guernsey            42.26N 104.69W
06/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Platte             WY   Public

            Picture on social media showing quarter size
            hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
450 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Hail             Burns                   41.20N 104.36W
06/02/2025  E1.25 Inch       Laramie            WY   Public

            Picture on social media showing half dollar
            size hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
532 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Torrington              42.07N 104.18W
06/02/2025                   Goshen             WY   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports down trees and
            power outages around Torrington.

&&

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