Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1257 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
  Wednesday afternoon and evening in southeast Wyoming and
  southwest Nebraska. Large hail is the primary threat, but all
  severe weather hazards are possible.

- Warmer temperatures and isolated to scattered late day
  showers and thunderstorms will occur for Thursday through
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Current satellite imagery shows low stratus covering areas east of
the Laramie Range. Satellite also shows some gradual clearing
within the stratus, which will likely lead to destabilization
later this afternoon. Low stratus from weak southerly and
easterly flow will provide ample moisture for storms. A sharp
dryline along the Laramie Range, as well as a weak disturbance
aloft will provide the needed lift for storms to initiate later
today. Hi-Res guidance still shows an active afternoon and
evening, mainly across southeast Wyoming where storms have the
greatest potential to be severe. GFS soundings show a strongly
capped Nebraska panhandle through the afternoon, which will help
limit both storm development and strong storms. By mid-
afternoon, the capping inversion along the Interstate 25
corridor will be eroded. This is likely around the time when
stronger storms will start to develop. Model soundings along
the Interstate 25 corridor do show an environment favorable for
severe weather. MUCAPE values are around 1400 J/kg with
effective shear values around 40 kts. This lends itself to a
severe hail threat, as well as the more discrete cells models
are showing. DCAPE values are around 1000 J/kg west of the
Laramie Range where it is drier and sunnier. These areas could
see some severe wind gusts with storms. Cannot rule out an
isolated tornado this afternoon with elevated SFC-3km SRH and
effective shear values. Heavy rain is also expected in storms
with PWATs above the 90th percentile for climatology. Luckily,
storms appear to be quick moving this afternoon, however,
multiple rounds of storms as suggested by some models could lead
to localized flash flooding. Strongest storms should end by
about 8 PM with some lingering showers and storms possible
through midnight.

Quieter weather is expected for Thursday. Southerly flow and
residual  moisture from storms will likely lead to another
round of low stratus during the morning hours. However, zonal
flow aloft will help dry out the mid-levels and clear clouds out
by the afternoon. Storms will still be possible during the
afternoon hours from a weak disturbance aloft, however, coverage
and intensity of storms will be much lower than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A zonal flow pattern will take over aloft on Thursday and
dominate much of the northern half of the CONUS into the
weekend. Drier westerly flow aloft will reduce the risk for
storms on Thursday, but isolated thunderstorms will still be
possible, mainly along the I-80 corridor. Monsoon moisture will
be pulled into the flow on Friday, causing perceptible water
and mid-level moisture in general to recover. While mid to upper
level moisture should improve for Friday, the dryline is
expected to be positioned further east, resulting in fairly
steady precipitable water Thursday into Friday. Expect to see
some high-based showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds
possible on Friday along with warm to hot temperatures.
Ensembles indicate that the dryline will move back to the west
on Saturday while decent mid to upper level monsoon moisture
remains in place. Expect this to then bring the highest chance
for more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage of the long
term period. For Sunday through Tuesday or so, expect decent
monsoon moisture to remain in place aloft, but we may lose the
boundary layer moisture for several days, leading to more
isolated PM thunderstorm activity each of those days.
Additionally, an upper level trough digging into the northwest
will amplify the downstream ridge over the central plains,
leading to another warm trend to carry through the middle part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Low stratus continues for areas east of the Laramie Range late
this morning. Low CIGs will likely burn off early this
afternoon, allowing destabilization for storms to form. The main
aviation concern this afternoon will be strong to severe storms
with heavy rain. Moderate to heavy rain will likely lead to
visibility drops in any storms passing over a terminal. MVFR to
IFR visibility will be possible in heavy rain. Strong, gusty
winds and large hail will also be possible in storms this
afternoon and evening. More low stratus will build in late
tonight and continue through Thursday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
102 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-171915-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
102 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening in southeast Wyoming and southwest
  Nebraska. Large hail is the primary threat, but all severe
  weather hazards are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

- Warmer temperatures and isolated to scattered late day showers
  and thunderstorms will occur for Thursday through early next
  week.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Cheyenne.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
314 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

WYZ110-114>116-162145-
South Laramie Range WY-North Snowy Range Foothills WY-
Laramie Valley WY-Snowy Range WY-
314 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CARBON AND SOUTHERN
ALBANY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 314 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Bosler to 7 miles
northwest of Antelope Buttes to 3 miles northeast of Platte River
Wilderness. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Laramie, Albany, West Laramie, Antelope Buttes, Nine Mile, Rogers
Canyon, Bosler, Pelton Creek Campground, Woods Landing-Jelm, Rambler,
Platte River Wilderness, Keystone, Wold, Laramie Regional Airport,
Rob Roy Reservoir, The Buttes, Lake Owen, Bobbie Thompson Campground,
Hutton Lake, and Yellow Pine Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 10611 4108 10646 4144 10606 4173 10585
      4174 10560 4170 10561 4170 10555 4165 10553
      4171 10543 4168 10535 4161 10531 4155 10531
      4151 10528 4130 10530 4099 10576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 280DEG 31KT 4169 10577 4146 10574 4111 10632

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sherburn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
358 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

WYZ106-114>118-162230-
South Laramie Range WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
Laramie Valley WY-Snowy Range WY-
358 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY AND
NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 357 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Baldy Peak to 2 miles southeast
of University Of Wyoming War Memorial Stadium to 9 miles southeast of
Woods Landing-Jelm. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Laramie, West Laramie, Federal, Table Mountain Ranches, Antelope
Buttes, Nine Mile, Rogers Canyon, Boulder Ridge, Tie Siding, Pumpkin
Vine, Vedauwoo Campground, North Crow Campground, Ames Monument,
Horse Creek, Laramie Regional Airport, The Buttes, Curt Gowdy State
Park, Hutton Lake, Yellow Pine Campground, and Tie City Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 10574 4161 10545 4162 10489 4126 10507
      4100 10528 4099 10600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 272DEG 27KT 4154 10531 4128 10555 4101 10588

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sherburn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
424 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

WYZ103-106-162300-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
North Laramie Range WY-
424 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ALBANY AND WEST
CENTRAL PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 424 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Westview Circle, or 17 miles west of Wheatland, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westview Circle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4206 10538 4212 10532 4206 10507 4192 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 296DEG 17KT 4207 10530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Sherburn

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
436 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

WYZ116>118-162330-
South Laramie Range WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
436 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY AND WESTERN
LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 436 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Whitaker to near North
Crow Campground to near Boulder Ridge. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Happy Valley, Federal, Table Mountain Ranches, Willadsen
Estates, Rocking Star Ranch, Silver Sage Estates, Granite Canon, Tie
Siding, Fox Farm-College, Cheyenne Regional Airport, Pumpkin Vine,
Winchester Hills, Vedauwoo Campground, North Crow Campground,
Ranchettes, Warren AFB, Frontier Park, North Cheyenne, and Ames
Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 10534 4156 10486 4156 10444 4153 10446
      4150 10452 4150 10449 4100 10485 4100 10564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 284DEG 14KT 4148 10495 4121 10528 4100 10561

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sherburn