Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
403 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Clusters of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
  early tonight
* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue mainly during the
  afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday
* Blocky pattern becoming established by the end of the weekend
  could produce significant/beneficial rainfall through early
  next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated to scattered convection has formed over western PA as
of 18Z. 20Z MRMS shows a couple of decent cores over the Laurel
Highlands into the NW mtns, but so far activity has largely
struggled to maintain intensity as it expands east northeast
into a less favorable environment characterized by decreasing
boundary layer moisture. There has been a recent uptick in storm
coverage and intensity mainly to the west of US 219 along with
some repeated cell development from Somerset County into western
MD. Overall, risk of severe storms drops off significantly to
the east of the Allegheny Front and the main threat may tilt
toward locally heavy rainfall into the evening. HREF data
suggests clusters/lines of storms could merge/train over the
same areas and result in localized rainfall amounts of 2+ inches
- particularly over the south central ridge and valley region.
FFG values increase quickly with eastern extent with locations
along the Allegheny Front being more susceptible to potential
flooding issues. Showers weaken and decrease in coverage later
tonight into early Friday morning. It will be a very mild first
night of May with low temps 55-65F or +15 to +25 degrees above
the historical average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
While large scale lift decreases on the margin Friday with only
a glancing influence from a lead shortwave trough ejecting
quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint Lawrence
Valley -- diurnal convection may pose a risk for locally strong
to damaging winds based on favorable thermodynamic profiles and
steep low level lapse rates. This potential may be enhanced over
the southeast portion of the area near sfc lee trough where max
temps are fcst to reach the low 80s.

Blocking pattern sets up into the weekend with a vertically
stacked low in the lower OH Valley. Rain is expected to extend
to the northeast along an frontal zone extending into New
England. The quality of buoyancy is uncertain given potential
for cloud cover, but airmass will remain seasonably moist with
some pockets of heating to the east of the higher terrain
supportive of a marginal risk of a few stronger storms with
isolated damaging wind threat.

This period will remain mild relative to climo with the largest
departures from normal in the overnight min temps +10-20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Blocky pattern with closed low lifting very slowly to the
northeast from the Ohio Valley will maintain a strong wet
pattern signal over the area through midweek. Initially,
rainfall should be beneficial particularly over the southeast
zones/LSQV where D1/D2 drought conditions have persisted for
some time. WPC has indicated a marginal risk of excessive rain
with some potential for repeated rounds of rain capable of
producing localized flooding risk in urban and poor drainage
areas. Models show the upper low feature finally starting to
accelerate to the northeast as it interacts with the northern
stream flow, which should result in drier conditions toward
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorm clusters will impact KBFD and KJST this afternoon
and expand eastward to the KAOO/KUNV/KIPT corridor later this
evening. Outside of brief IFR restrictions in +RA, expect flight
cats to remain VFR to MVFR through tonight into Friday.

Fri...Scattered showers with some restrictions possible.

Sat-Mon...Periods of rain and sub-VFR conditions likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
400 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

PAZ004-012100-
Warren-
400 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

A series of strong thunderstorms will lift northeastward across
Warren County. The first is just south of Warren, and the second
will move into the far northwest corner of the county shortly.

You may experience

* Wind gusts up to 55 MPH.
* Hail up to nickel size.
* Very heavy rainfall.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

The storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from your National Weather Service.