Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
649 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A strong cold front will push east of the region late tonight.
* One cooler day on Monday will be followed by a warm up as
  ridging moves in from the west and settles overhead for mid-
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The threat of severe weather continues to wane across Central
PA this evening, as the main shortwave and core of strongest
winds aloft lift north of the region. Radar loop at 22Z shows a
weakened band of convection entering the Susq Valley along the
trailing low level jet and plume of anomalous pwats. Although
large scale forcing and shear has weakened, will still have to
monitor the Susq Valley for isolated severe wx the next couple
of hours. SPC mesoanalysis in this area still indicates ESRH
values of around 300m2/s2 and cape around 300 J/kg.

Latest HRRR indicates rainfall this evening could reach 1-2
inches in spots of the Middle and Lower Susq Valley, but this
should not be sufficient to cause flooding based on latest FFG
values.

Southerly wind gusts of near 40kts are still being observed
ahead of the convection across the southeast part of the
forecast area at 22Z, but expect diminishing winds later this
evening as the trailing low level jet slides east.

The actual surface cold front is just entering Warren County at
22Z and is progged to slowly push east across the forecast area
overnight, accompanied by a few lingering showers. By late
tonight, thermal profiles become cold enough for a few
orographically-driven snow showers over the NW Mtns. No accums
are expected.

NBM min temps range from the low 30s over the NW Mtns, to around
50F over the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A few orographic snow showers could linger until just after 12Z
Monday over the NW Mtns/Laurels Highlands. Likewise, a few rain
showers associated with the departing cold front could linger
over the eastern edge of the forecast area until around 14Z.

Surface ridging and dry air building in from the Grt Lks should
result in fair and seasonable weather the rest of Monday.
However, chilly air aloft under an upper level trough should
result in abundant stratocu. Model RH profiles support breaking
clouds from west to east during the late afternoon and early
evening, as the core of coolest air aloft exits the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging building over PA will give the area a dry day
on Tuesday. Another deep low moving northeast from the Rockies
will bring another warm up by mid week.

This system will bring some showers and perhaps a storm to
the region by Thursday. Moisture more limited with this
system, thus widespread heavy rain and strong storms not as
likely as our current system today.

After this low moves northeast of our area, models show the
large scale ridge forming back over the western states late
in the week. This would support a return to cold weather as
we head into Spring.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will persist across the Susq Valley with LLWS for
the next few hours prior to the passage of a strong cold front
with a narrow line of +SHRA/TSRA with gusty winds of 40-50 kts
possible at KIPT, and to a slightly lesser degree at KMDT and
KLNS. A several hour period of higher based, mainly VFR will
occur across the Western Half of PA through early to mid
evening.

As winds turn to the west behind the cold front, MVFR ceilings
will redevelop at BFD and JST late this evening and continue
overnight/Monday morning.

Outlook...

Mon...Windy and colder with clearing skies.

Tue...VFR with lighter winds.

Wed...VFR.

Thu...Showers overspreading the area from west to east.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Bauco

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
702 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-172315-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
702 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
741 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Renovo                  41.33N 77.75W
03/16/2025                   Clinton            PA   Emergency Mngr

            Roof damge to American Legion in Renovo
            Borough.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
746 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Mcalevys Fort       40.64N 77.83W
03/16/2025                   Huntingdon         PA   911 Call Center

            Trees on wires and power outages in McAlevys
            Fort.

&&

JRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
747 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Pine Grove Mills        40.74N 77.87W
03/16/2025                   Centre             PA   911 Call Center

            Multiple reports of trees and wires down.

&&

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
752 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

PAZ057-059-063-065-170030-
York PA-Cumberland PA-Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-
752 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DAUPHIN...NORTHWESTERN
YORK...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND AND NORTHWESTERN LEBANON COUNTIES
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 752 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dillsburg, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dillsburg, Shiremanstown, and Siddonsburg around 755 PM EDT.
  Camp Hill, West Fairview, and New Cumberland around 800 PM EDT.
  Penbrook, Rutherford, and Paxtonia around 805 PM EDT.
  Skyline View and Linglestown around 810 PM EDT.
  Fort Indiantown Gap and Penn National Race Course around 815 PM
  EDT.
  Harper Tavern around 820 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include City Island, Penn
State Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, Messiah College,
and Franklintown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for south central
Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 7707 4006 7709 4007 7713 4006 7715
      4012 7722 4031 7698 4033 7691 4035 7693
      4060 7661 4044 7635 4001 7702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 226DEG 55KT 4011 7707

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
830 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

PAZ058-059-170115-
Lebanon PA-Schuylkill PA-
830 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCHUYLKILL AND NORTHWESTERN
LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 829 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lickdale, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tremont and Pine Grove around 835 PM EDT.
  Pottsville, Marlin, and Friedensburg around 840 PM EDT.
  St. Clair, Mechanicsville, and Port Carbon around 845 PM EDT.
  New Philadelphia, Locust Lake State Park, and New Boston-Morea
  around 850 PM EDT.
  Grier City-Park Crest, Hometown, and Delano around 855 PM EDT.
  Mcadoo around 900 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ravine, Penn State
Schuylkill, Mary-D, Park Place, and Middleport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 7623 4052 7634 4049 7644 4044 7634
      4036 7645 4048 7663 4093 7614 4090 7604
      4091 7600 4080 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 222DEG 61KT 4048 7648

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Jurewicz

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