Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS State College, PA

257 
WGUS71 KCTP 232313
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
713 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

PAC071-240130-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-250924T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lancaster PA-
713 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY...

At 713 PM EDT, Local law enforcement reported thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain in Lancaster City. Between 2 and 3 inches of 
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.1 to 0.3 inches 
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lancaster, Columbia, Millersville, Willow Street, East Petersburg, 
  Leola, Rothsville, Mountville, Leacock, Bareville, Washington 
  Boro, Bird-In-Hand, Smoketown, Franklin And Marshall College, 
  Millersville University, Lancaster Airport and Dutch Wonderland.

Rain will move out of the warned area by 7:30PM, but water on 
roadways may take some time to recede.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 7646 3997 7649 3998 7650 3999 7650
      4001 7651 4015 7622 4008 7612 3992 7642
      3993 7643 3993 7645 3994 7645

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Banghoff

569 
WGUS71 KCTP 240046
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
846 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

PAC071-240056-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-250924T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lancaster PA-
846 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY...

Flood waters are receding. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 7646 3997 7649 3998 7650 3999 7650
      4001 7651 4015 7622 4008 7612 3992 7642
      3993 7643 3993 7645 3994 7645

$$

Banghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
257 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Muggy with above average temperatures to begin astronomical
  Fall
* Periods of much needed rainfall expected through Thursday;
  rainfall signal is unclear for the weekend (leaning dry)
* Dry pattern is likely to return by next week and could last
  into early October

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Downstream of a broad/weak mid level trough and embedded
shortwave/vortmax crossing the WV/MD panhandle, low level clouds
are blanketing areas along and to the NW of I-81 -- effectively
keeping diurnal instability in-check across the western and
central Alleghenies this afternoon. Expect sct showers to
continue to track to the northeast across this part of the fcst
area into the evening with temps holding in the 65-75F range.

Meanwhile, plenty of sunshine has allowed for strong heating
over the lower Susq Valley (80-82F at 17Z) which should erode
remaining CIN by 18-19Z and allow for convective development
into the early evening. Based on visible sat and CAPE trends, we
would favor the extreme southeast zones/Lancaster Co vcnty with
the best odds for a stronger storm/risk of locally damaging
wind gust before activity weakens/shifts to the east later this
evening after 8pm/00UTC.

Hires models show a lull in the showers tonight, with the main
focus shifting to areas of dense fog/low visibility into early
Wednesday morning. Muggy/warm night by late September standards
with lows 55-65F or +10-15 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Latest HREF/NBM shows very limited shower activity (not much if
any rainfall) through Wed afternoon. Expect POPs to ramp from
SW to NE later in the day into Wednesday night. Amplifying
longwave trough stretching from the Great Lakes southward into
the Lower MS Valley will send higher pwats into the area and
promote rounds of showers and storms through Thursday night.
On balance, the rain will be highly beneficial given the
abnormal dryness (D0-D1 drought) and much below % normal precip
departures over the past several weeks; however will need to
monitor for locally heavy/repeat downpours that could lead to
some minor/urban flooding concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is still plenty of spread in the model data regarding the
pattern evolution/configuration over the Eastern U.S. from late
week through the weekend. Split flow to higher amplitude
blocking solutions are possible outcomes to add to the high
uncertainty/complexity along with 1 or 2 tropical systems off
the Carolina/Southeast coast to factor into the mix. The precip
signal is not particularly strong over CPA (highest in the
southeast) -- but we are not ready to go all-in on a dry last
weekend of September. Longer term trends do eventually favor the
return of drier conditions/lower humidity by the start of next
week into early October. This transition favors the return of
warmer than climo max temps/daytime highs and cooler nights
closer to the historical average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough will move northeast today, enhancing
large scale lift and impacting much of the region with a few
more rounds of rain/showers and scattered thunderstorms. The
greatest potential for brief strong wind gusts from the storms
will be over the Lower Susq Valley and western Poconos this
afternoon, where the prob of SFC based CAPE exceeding 1000 and
2000 J/KG is the greatest.

Lowest CIGs and vsbys across the Lower Susq Valley will come in
the 22Z Tue - 03Z Wed period as a cold front pushes through and
will likely be accompanied by numerous showers and some
embedded, moderately tall showers.

Later tonight and Wednesday morning, a few breaks in the cloud
cover will enhance radiational cooling and cause locally dense
fog to form after 04Z Wed.

Not much change with the pattern, weak systems will bring some
showers and storms to central PA through Thursday and even some
chance on Friday. Conditions trend drier by the weekend.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat...Multiple rounds of SHRA and PM TSRA (best chances Tue
and Thu) with sub-VFR conditions expected.

Sun...Low cigs/vsby in poss fog early. Improving to VFR later.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
915 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-049-
241315-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Somerset-Bedford-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-
915 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ028-035-036-050>053-056>059-063>066-241315-
Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
915 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with a risk of locally damaging winds are
possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.