Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS State College, PA

226 
WGUS71 KCTP 160925
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
525 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

PAC107-160935-
/O.EXP.KCTP.FF.W.0076.000000T0000Z-250816T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Schuylkill PA-
525 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 530 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 7627 4065 7619 4060 7614 4056 7612
      4054 7617 4052 7624 4052 7634 4050 7642
      4050 7644 4053 7649 4061 7644

$$

Steinbugl/Beaty

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
206 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Very warm and increasingly humid with isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms through Sunday
* Remaining unsettled into next week with temperatures trending
  cooler/closer to the historical average for mid/late August
* Hurricane Erin is not expected to impact CPA at this time

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Isolated showers and storms earlier today have faded tonight,
though some showers may develop farther to the north and west
overnight. Valley fog should form over much of the region and
may be locally dense. Additionally, southeasterly flow off of
the Atlantic should bring some low clouds into southeast PA. The
extend of this cloud cover is a little uncertain, but some
guidance suggests that it could extend as far inland as State
College and Williamsport. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the upper 50s and low 60s over the northern mountains, to
the low 70s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Late summer heat and humidity continues this weekend with fcst
highs in the low 80s in the western and northern mtns to low
90s in the central and eastern valleys (+5-10F above normal).
The focus for storms is projected to shift into the central
ridges and valleys Saturday afternoon. PWAT values trend a lower
and with storms expected to be in an even less
vulnerable/urbanized area - there is no ERO risk from WPC for
D2.

Arrival of southeastward-sinking cold front from the Lower Great
Lakes may provide more of a synoptic trigger or lifting
mechanism for storms on Sunday PM (vs. the purely diurnal,
instability driven pulse storms Fri & Sat) but the overall
trend has been towards drier conditions for Sunday, especially
east of the Allegheny Front where dry air may hold on longer.
Sunday looks like the hottest day over the south central valleys
with a max heat index reaching the mid to upper 90s in some
places.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging developing over the Central US will place
Pennsylvania under northwesterly flow for much of the extended
period, keeping rain chances around through at least Wednesday.
The best chance for widespread rain will come on Tuesday and
WPC has introduced a MRGL risk ERO, noting above normal PW
values. Max temps are fcst to trend seasonably cooler/lower
especially when compared to the hot/humid conditions Fri-Sun.
Hurricane Erin is expected to remain well offshore by the middle
of next week and currently does not pose a threat to CPA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low clouds are progged by the bulk of model guidance across the
Susquehanna Valley (IPT/MDT/LNS) between 08Z-13Z Saturday with
moderate-to-high (60-70%) confidence. Timing of restrictions
remains the most uncertain aspect of the 06Z TAF package with
GLAMP guidance indicating slower (and not as notable)
restrictions. Patchy fog formation closer to sunrise will be in
play for the rest of the airfields given a consensus of
HREF/GLAMP guidance, with BFD/AOO more likely to experience
restrictions based on current observational trends. Patchy fog
formation would likely occur in the 09Z-12Z timeframe before
quickly dissipating after sunrise.

VFR conditions are expected area wide after ~14Z Saturday with
scattered SHRA/TSRA possible across the central terminals
(AOO/UNV). Confidence right around ~30% warrants PROB30s based
on consensus of hi-res model guidance; however, lower confidence
on sub-VFR conditions for the 06Z TAF cycle. Restrictions will
generally be pushed based on visibilities, thus have hinted at
(slightly) lower visibilities in the timeframe of highest
confidence. Near and after sunset, all model guidance points
towards a drying trend with clouds beginning to scatter out with
another overnight period marked with patchy fog.

Outlook...

Sun...Mainly VFR, with a few SHRA/TSRA possible late (esp N/W).

Mon...Mainly VFR, with an isolated aftn SHRA/TSRA possible far
south.

Tue-Wed...Chc of SHRA/TSRA areawide.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bauco
NEAR TERM...Bauco
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...NPB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1230 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-170430-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1230 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.