Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS State College, PA

634 
WGUS71 KCTP 132114
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
514 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

PAC009-111-132215-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250513T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
514 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...

At 514 PM EDT, Flooding from earlier and ongoing heavy rain 
continues. Water rescues are occurring in Meyersdale and Salisbury. 
Evacuations are also in progress for low lying areas of Meyersdale 
and shelters have been set up. A land slide has occurred on state 
route 219, north of Boynton. A number of local rain gauge reports 
are in the 3.5 to 4.5 inch range since this morning.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Emergency management (observed).

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Somerset, Meyersdale, Berlin, Friedens, New Centerville, Mount 
Davis, Lake Gordon, Hyndman, Rockwood, Salisbury, Garrett, Indian 
Lake, Shanksville, Wellersburg, New Baltimore, Casselman, Callimont 
and Flight 93 National Memorial.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
Kimberly Run, Tiger Run, Wolf Camp Run, Flaugherty Creek, Three Lick 
Run, Wills Creek, Raystown Branch Juniata River, Glades Creek, 
Zehner Run, Parson Run, Town Line Run, Millers Run, West Branch 
Coxes Creek, Wells Creek, Panther Run, Evitts Creek, Glade Run, 
Elklick Creek, Flag Run, Red Run, Reitz Creek, Thompson Run, Middle 
Creek, Laurel Hill Creek, North Branch Jennings Run, Poorbaugh Run, 
Clear Run, Brush Creek, McClintock Run, Hillegas Run, Buffalo Creek, 
Wilson Creek, Kegg Run, Laurel Run, Tar Water Creek, Bromm Run, 
Stonycreek River, Kimmel Run, Shaffers Run, Blue Lick Creek, Cove 
Run, Smally Spring Branch, East Branch Coxes Creek, Little Wills 
Creek, Piney Creek, Ware Run, Coxes Creek, Buck Run, Shafer Run, 
Savage Run, Tub Mill Run, Casselman River, Whites Creek, Oster Run, 
Beaverdam Creek, Rhoads Creek, Shade Creek and Meadow Run.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 7928 4001 7917 4004 7909 4006 7899
      4004 7877 3999 7871 3994 7869 3984 7867
      3981 7865 3972 7866 3972 7931

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
124 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* An extended period of wet weather is expected, with at least
  some rainfall anticipated on a daily basis, from Tuesday right
  into the weekend
* Long duration heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding
  across south central PA this afternoon through the overnight
  hours
* Temperatures will average near to somewhat above seasonal
  normals for mid-May

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 am update... Late morning satellite and radar imagery show
the upper low gradually opening up and slowly wobbling northward
from the southern Appalachians, with a firehose of moisture
coming from the Mid-Atlantic coast northward into south-central
PA. Some enhanced radar echoes are edging from the MD panhandle
northward into Somerset county as of this writing, with some
0.25-0.4"/hour estimates on MRMS. We'll continue to watch this
area closely through the afternoon, particularly if any
convective elements can develop.

Temperatures are not likely to rise a great deal from their
present values, given thick cloud cover and persistent showers.
Highs largely in the 60s are foreseen, with perhaps some
readings staying in the upper 50s over the higher terrain.

Previous discussion... Water vapor and IR satellite imagery
this morning show a deep upper low centered over western
Virginia well separated from the associated surface occlusion in
northern Mississippi. Both circulations are responsible for a
surge of high-PWAT air moving northward and bringing widespread
showers to the Commonwealth today. Rain will cross the PA/NY
border by daybreak with numerous showers expected to persist
throughout the day and into the evening.

In spite of meager instability, anomalous southeasterly flow
oriented perpendicular to the Allegheny ridges, anomalously
high PWAT values (1.5-1.7"), and long duration rainfall will
result in the potential for flooding this afternoon and
overnight.

With little to no thunderstorm activity expected across
Pennsylvania, rainfall rates should remain below 1 inch per hour
in most cases, but tropical moisture will lead to efficient
rainfall production. Latest rainfall guidance from WPC and a suite
of convective allowing model/ensemble guidance depicts
increasing confidence in localized rainfall amounts exceeding 3
inches (and perhaps isolated instances of >4") along east facing
slopes in the south central mountains. Not expecting much of a
"flash" flooding threat, but the occurrence of 3"+ rainfall
totals could create areal/urban/small stream flooding. Have
hoisted a Flood Watch for a portion of south central PA where
the highest rainfall totals are expected.

Notably, flash flood guidance is lowest east of the Flood Watch
along the Susquehanna basin. If persistent bands of heavy rain
set up farther northeast than currently expected, the Watch may
need to be expanded or Warnings may be needed outside the Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Wednesday, the deepest moisture supply is progged to start
to lift away from PA. However, with upper-level energy still
upstream and a sufficiency of remaining moisture, additional
showers and thunderstorms seem like a good bet. Lower rainfall
rates should limit the risk of flooding beyond Wednesday
morning. Thick cloud cover and persistent rainfall will keep
daytime highs in the 60s to near 70.

On Thursday, upper level ridging building in should promote warm
advection and a surge of warmer temperatures. Highs are progged
to get into the 70s across the entire area with a few locations
in southern PA possible cresting the 80F mark. A mix of sun and
clouds will be a welcome change after the long-duration
rainfall event.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
1045 am update... On the large-scale, with the slow moving
cutoff low having already opened up and lifted north of the
Commonwealth by Friday, the next system to watch will be an
incoming short-wave in the northern stream tracking from the
Upper Midwest across the Northeastern CONUS this weekend. The
combination of that short-wave and a surface frontal complex
will bring diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms Friday,
then some lingering convection on Saturday. Sunday still looks a
little questionable, with a cyclonic flow aloft and the passage
of a secondary surface cool front. Thus, there remains enough
uncertainty to justify the mention of at least scattered showers
for the second part of the weekend.

Early next week, model trends favor at least a brief period of
drier conditions, with short-wave ridging aloft and a surface
anticyclone building down from south-central Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large area of showers, some heavy, have been spreading to
the north, as expected. Visibilities and CIGS low at times,
but still not bad in spots.

Pivot point just to the south of Somerset County, as of early
this afternoon, with the heaviest rain down that way.

Expect the heavier rain and lower conditions to spread to
the north and east this afternoon and overnight.

For Wednesday, the steady showers should taper from the south
to the northeast, with conditions coming up.

Persistent southeast winds could occasionally gust 20 to 25kts
this afternoon and early this evening.

Outlook...

Thu...Early restrictions in lower clouds, fog, and showers are
possible. Some improvement is possible by afternoon prior to
additional showers and storms developing in the afternoon.

Fri...Showers and afternoon thunderstorms, along with
restrictions.

Sat...Showers and afternoon thunderstorms likely, along
with restrictions.

Sun...Some improvement, as a series of cold fronts move
southeast of the area.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for PAZ025-026-033>036-
064.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Banghoff/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
423 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037-140830-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Tioga-
423 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ025-026-033>036-064-140830-
Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Adams-
423 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-024-027-028-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063-065-
066-140830-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Mifflin-
Juniata-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-York-Lancaster-
423 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain today and tonight will
bring 1 to 3 inches of rainfall and could result in isolated
instances of flooding. Locally higher amounts are possible on east
facing slopes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
108 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     Flood            Meyersdale              39.81N 79.03W
05/13/2025                   Somerset           PA   911 Call Center

            Multiple roadways closed due to water over
            roadways in and around Meyersdale.

&&

NPB