Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS State College, PA

448 
WGUS71 KCTP 092206
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
606 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

PAC133-100015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-250710T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
York PA-
606 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL YORK COUNTY...

At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  York, Weigelstown, Shiloh, East York, Stonybrook-Wilshire, West 
  York, Grantley, Tyler Run-Queens Gate, Valley View, Manchester, 
  Hallam, Emigsville, Wrightsville, Dover, North York, Yorklyn, 
  Mount Wolf, Yorkana, East Prospect and Penn State York.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7665 4005 7657 4005 7653 4003 7653
      4000 7650 3998 7649 3993 7673 3994 7684
      3997 7691 4002 7690 4008 7671 4007 7667

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Bauco

160 
WGUS71 KCTP 100010
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
810 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

PAC133-100020-
/O.EXP.KCTP.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-250710T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
York PA-
810 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
CENTRAL YORK COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for a portion of 
central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7665 4005 7657 4005 7653 4003 7653
      4000 7650 3998 7649 3993 7673 3994 7684
      3997 7691 4002 7690 4008 7671 4007 7667

$$

Bauco

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
321 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Scattered damaging wind gusts and flash flooding are possible
  across portions of south central and southeastern Pennsylvania
  this afternoon and evening
* Continued seasonably warm and humid into mid July with daily
  chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Latest satellite and radar trends show convection developing and
intensifying along multiple convergence boundaries ahead of a
northeastward moving shortwave trough. Thus far, storms have
remained below severe limits, but we do see the chance for
damaging winds increasing into the early evening hours across
the southern tier, where low level lapse rates are above 7C/km,
MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg, and DCAPE is between 700 and 900
J/kg. Effective wind shear is around 40 kts from the SW. This
direction aligns with the orientation of many of the initiating
boundaries, particularly those along the higher terrain of the
central Appalachians. The alignment of the shear (and the flow)
with the initiating boundaries increases the threat for training
convection and ultimately flash flooding. Thus the Flash Flood
Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch continue for the
southeastern tier. Convection will likely be slow to clear out
of Lancaster County, with some of the guidance depicting
moderate to heavy rain continuing as late as midnight before the
trough kicks it east.

For the rest of the night, patchy fog is possible, particularly
in places that see some clearing after earlier rainfall.
Temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist and weakly capped
boundary layer will result in at least isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across central PA again on Thursday and Friday.
However, precipitable water values look to trend lower vs.
previous days. This will reduce the excessive rainfall and flash
flood risk while remaining sufficient to support the potential
for wet downbursts and isolated wind damage. SPC has maintained
a MRGL risk for both D2/Thu and D3/Fri. Typical mid July
summertime temperatures expected with daytime highs in the
80-90F range and lows 60-70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Daily chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue over
the weekend and into early next week with max/min temps trending
near to slightly above normal for mid July. Tuesday may stand
the highest chance of being a completely dry day, but even
then, PoPs are 20-35 pct.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Variable cloudiness is expected this afternoon with scattered
mid level clouds area wide and a deck of high level clouds
moving in across the northwest. VFR conditions will prevail
until scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to build later
this afternoon and evening.

A few light showers are possible at JST and AOO, perhaps even as
far north as UNV, but any restrictions should be brief. Farther
southeast, heavier showers and stronger storms are expected in
MDT and LNS between 22 and 02Z with reductions to MVFR or IFR
vis expected as storms move through.

The forecast for tonight gets a bit more complicated in terms of
cigs and vis. High clouds should limit the potential for
radiation fog tonight, but moisture pooling as a result of
recent rains could still lead to some fog/low ceiling potential.

At this point, the best chance for radiation fog will be BFD and
JST where clearing may build in before daybreak. Have indicated
at least a period of MVFR restrictions at all airfields tonight,
but confidence remains fairly low in the extent and duration of
such impacts.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions in possible in scattered PM storms.

Fri-Sat...Scattered afternoon/evening storms, mainly south.

Sun...More widespread showers/storms likely.

Mon...Still storms around.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ064>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
220 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063-101830-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
220 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe storms containing damaging winds are possible during
the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ034>036-101830-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
220 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe storms containing damaging winds and heavy rain are
possible during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ064>066-101830-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
220 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe storms containing damaging winds and heavy rain are
possible during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.