Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS State College, PA

330 
WGUS71 KCTP 060431
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1231 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

PAC001-041-055-060441-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250506T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams PA-Cumberland PA-Franklin PA-
1231 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WESTERN ADAMS, SOUTHWESTERN 
CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4018 7747 4014 7741 4010 7736 4002 7732
      3993 7729 3985 7725 3972 7723 3972 7731
      3972 7747 3972 7751 3972 7757 3972 7759
      3986 7760 3996 7759 4015 7759

$$

Bowen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
835 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Slow moving bands of showers and thunderstorms this evening could
  produce localized flash flooding, strong winds, and hail.
* More showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday before an upper low
  finally loses its grip on Pennsylvania.
* Trending cooler Thursday and Friday with potential for another
  batch of heavy rain

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Upper level divergence associated with an approaching vort max
on the east side of a large, slow moving upper low will maintain
clusters and lines of heavy showers with embedded convection
through much of tonight. A severe thunderstorm watch focused on
convection in Maryland and Virginia also clips Franklin, Adams,
and York counties, valid through midnight. Confidence in severe
weather making it this far north is low, however, with MLCAPE
sub 1000 J/kg, DCAPE sub 500 J/kg, and effective shear sub 25
kts. Effective shear will rise a bit after midnight, potentially
bringing about more organized convection (more of a heavy rain
threat), but at the same time decreasing instability will lead
to a decreasing threat for severe weather.

We will continue to monitor the threat for localized flooding
overnight. Flash flood warnings have been issued for portions
of Tioga and Bradford Counties where moderate to heavy
stratiform rain over the past few hours has pushed rainfall
totals locally above 2 inches. The threat area for rapid onset
flooding will expand between 10 PM and daybreak as the next
batch of convection moves north from Maryland, into central PA
with the heaviest rain (a stripe of 1.00-1.50 inches) expected
from Franklin/Adams counties north into Mifflin/Centre and
farther north into Potter/Tioga. The risk of flooding is still
not high enough to warrant a flood watch at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active weather will likely continue Tuesday/Tuesday evening as
the core of the upper low moves into western PA. This will push
the highest instability and greatest chance for severe weather
east into the Susquehanna Valley. A MRGL risk of severe weather
in place east of State College and north of I-76/PA turnpike
into NY/NJ. Rainfall amounts should be lower on Tuesday compared
to today, with ensemble mean accumulations less than 1 inch.

The threat for severe weather appears to decrease Wednesday as
the slow moving upper low gradually fills in and the center
moves across the Eastern Third of the state in the afternoon,
with precip likely coming to an end across the bulk of Central
PA by Wed afternoon or early evening. Upslope/lake enhanced
showers may linger a bit longer in the northwest mountains with
northwest flow building in behind the departing low.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low will be getting kicked out by a long wave trough
swinging down from the Great Lakes very early in the period.
Drier air on Thurs should keep SHRA from being as numerous and
certainly as strong/rainy as the early week showers/storms.
30-50 PoPs should be OK for Thurs-Thurs evening. This upper
trough should be progressing thru but may also slow down just
after it passes our longitude. Thus, we will have to linger a
low chc PoP on Fri-Fri night. Weak high pressure will then move
in for the weekend. We may still hold onto a 20 PoP for those
days though. See no reasons to stray from the NBM guidance on
the whole. Minor tweaks only to make PoPs and QPF match up.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Variable ceilings, though generally MVFR to VFR conditions,
across Central PA as upper low spins over the Ohio Valley,
bringing moist SE flow and increasing amounts of showers along
with scattered thunderstorms. Currently in a lull from
thunderstorm activity with just rain showers across the
airspace. Another wave of more widespread showers / scattered
thunderstorms will lift north across the airspace between 01-06z
this evening, accompanied by a drop in ceilings producing
widespread IFR conditions that will linger into early Tues.

Best estimate is the AOO/UNV/JST will have best chance of
seeing a tsra with gusty winds and small hail and or heavy rain
in this time period as a developing line of storms lifts nwd
from MD?VA airspace.

Conditions look to improve only slightly on Tue, but after a
short break in the wet weather, additional showers/tstms
expected in the afternoon/evening with continued restrictions.

Outlook...

Tue...Frequent rain showers; some locally heavy with prolonged
sub-VFR conditions. Chance of TSRA/CB.

Wed-Fri...Showers become more scattered with higher chances in
the afternoon/evening hours. Restrictions possible.

Sat...No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Gartner/RXR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
630 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

PAZ036-064-065-062230-
Franklin-Adams-York-
630 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Slow moving bands of heavy showers and strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms tonight. Localized poor drainage and small stream
flooding possible. Gusty winds and hail will also be possible with
the stronger, taller storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and
gusty winds are possible again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024>026-033>035-063-062230-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Cumberland-
630 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Slow moving bands of training showers along with scattered thunderstorms
will bring the potential for localized poor drainage and small
stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and
gusty winds are possible again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ006-012-018-019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-066-
062230-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Mifflin-
Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
630 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Slow moving bands of training showers along with scattered thunderstorms
will bring the potential for localized poor drainage and small
stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with
brief heavy rain and gusty winds are possible again Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
845 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Flood            1 W Knoxville           41.96N 77.45W
05/05/2025                   Tioga              PA   911 Call Center

            Tioga County 911 is reporting flooding on
            PA-249 in Deerfield Township.

&&

JAB