Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1138 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Fire Weather Watch in effect through Tuesday evening

- Hazard coastal and marine conditions expected through Tuesday

A slew of hazards can be expected for the short term. Patchy marine
fog development will be possible again today with dew points closer
to 70 degrees once again today. Gulf SSTs will remain in the lower
70s. With winds remaining elevated, conditions should remain mixed
out inland. Satellite imagery over the past couple of hours has
shown some brief periods of patchy fog in the nearshore waters,
though given the patchy nature a Marine Dense Fog Advisory won't be
necessary at this time.

A front is expected to enter the region Tuesday morning clearing
the region Tuesday evening. This is expected to bring a low chance
of rain along the front mainly in the Victoria Crossroads (<30%).
Relative humidity values are expected to drop drastically behind
the front as low as 6%. Winds in the wake of the front will
increase significantly around 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
thanks to a strong LLJ around 50 to 55 knots. As a result, a Fire
Weather Watch was issued this cycle though an upgrade to a Red
Flag Warning this afternoon is likely.

Winds will begin mixing down this evening increasing winds over the
waters to around 20 knots. This will allow for Small Craft Advisory
conditions through tomorrow evening though conditions will flirt
with gale force at times. We will continue to monitor this
possibility as the event unfolds. In addition to the Small Craft
Advisory conditions a high risk of rip currents will go into
effect tomorrow morning. Otherwise, expect warm conditions through
Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s out west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Cold front Saturday drops temperatures into the 40s at night

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue Wednesday, returning and
worsening this weekend

A reinforcing surge of high pressure Wednesday will maintain dry
conditions over South Texas through Friday, with onshore flow
returning Thursday. Minimum relative humidity will still drop below
elevated fire weather condition criteria on Wednesday on top of
northerly winds around 15 mph with higher gusts. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will drop into the mid 40s inland to the mid 50s
along the coast. Temperatures warm significantly on Friday as low-
level onshore flow brings WAA and ridging aloft enhances subsidence,
peaking highs into the low 90s over the Brush Country.

A positively tilted mid-level trough will swing eastward across
Texas this weekend, sending another cold front across the region on
Saturday. Moisture will remain limited and a strong cap will be in
place, negating any mention of rain chances ahead of the front. Fire
weather concerns will return once again Saturday afternoon, as
relative humidity values drop to 10-30% and northwesterly winds
increase to 20-25 mph. Low temperatures drop into the mid to upper
40s Saturday night and Sunday night with highs on Sunday generally
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Generally MVFR cigs will prevail at the eastern terminals through
the overnight period, while a brief recovery to VFR is
anticipated this afternoon for KLRD and KCOT, although there
remains a medium (40%) chance of MVFR cigs remaining in place.
Conditions will improve to VFR from west to east Tuesday morning.
Gusty SE winds will prevail this afternoon through tonight,
generally sustained 15 to 20kts with gusts to around 30kts. Winds
will briefly shift S-SW and weaken early Tuesday morning before
shifting to the W-NW by late Tuesday morning with gusts to 30kts
returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 459 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Weak to moderate westerly flow Tuesday night will strengthen to 15-
20 knots out of the north on Wednesday as a reinforcing surge of
high pressure pushes through the waters. Winds diminish to around 15
knots and shift northeasterly Wednesday night, returning onshore
Thursday. Moderate south to southeasterly flow will dominate
Thursday night through Friday night before another cold front passes
through Saturday, shifting winds out of the north to northwest this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  70  85  53 /   0  10  10   0
Victoria          80  69  83  49 /  10  40  20   0
Laredo            87  66  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             81  69  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          76  68  83  55 /   0  30  10   0
Cotulla           84  65  85  51 /   0  10   0   0
Kingsville        81  70  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  69  81  56 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...NC/91