Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
611 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Moderate to Major Heat Risk through early this week

- Coastal showers and storms possible Monday

- Rain Chances increasing again late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The evening convection that moved across South Texas is largely out
of the area with a broken line moving through the coastal waters at
this time.  Meso models did a really poor job of handling this
convection, never really catching onto it even as it was ongoing.
This definitely gives concerns for what coastal convection for the
clarity of convection for Monday along the coast. A mid-level
shortwave approaches the Victoria Crossroads late in the night
(after 3am) and some guidance is picking up on showers and storms
developing with this toward morning. The energy associated with the
wave stretches out along the coast, so could see isolated to
scattered convection through the immediate Coastal Bend through the
morning hours and possibly into the early afternoon before the wave
kicks out.

Once this shortwave moves out, the mid-level ridge to our west
should be in control for a couple of days helping to bring some
drier mid-level air into the region and decreasing PWAT values.
Expect mainly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as a result,
though an isolated shallow streamer shower in the morning is not
out of the question. Above normal temperatures and heat index
values between 105 and 110 are anticipated Monday through
Wednesday.

Later in the week we'll be focusing on tropical moisture approaching
the Texas Coast. Not much has changed with the expectation of this
wave, with the best chances for heavy rain remaining south of our
area, but expect an increase in cloud cover and medium chances
for showers and storms Thursday through Saturday with the highest
chances in the Coastal Plains. As a result of this increased
moisture, expect temperatures to fall back a few degrees and could
even be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms from this morning are mainly
affecting KALI/KCRP with light thunderstorms activity through 14Z
or so, followed by a PROB30 group after sunrise for later
convection (KVCT). By this evening, convective storms diminish
and flight categories return to VFR/MVFR through Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will persist through
the first half of the week with a slight increase to moderate to
fresh (BF 4-5) Wednesday, before subsiding a bit late week.
Daily rain chances remain mostly low (20-30%) early this week.
Increasing up to moderate to high chances for the later part of
the week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  78  94  79 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          90  75  91  76 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo           102  78 102  77 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             97  75  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          90  81  90  81 /  30   0  10   0
Cotulla          101  78 103  77 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        95  76  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  81  89  81 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...AE/82

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
558 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 AM     Rain             3 S Flour Bluff         27.61N 97.30W
06/16/2025  M3.63 Inch       Nueces             TX   Mesonet

            Storm total rainfall.

&&

CLM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
559 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 AM     Rain             2 SSE Flour Bluff       27.63N 97.29W
06/16/2025  M3.59 Inch       GMZ232             TX   Mesonet

            Storm total rainfall.

&&

CLM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

TXZ242-342-161200-
Coastal Kleberg TX-Inland Kleberg TX-
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL KLEBERG COUNTY THROUGH
700 AM CDT...

At 619 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Ricardo to 7 miles
northeast of Riviera Beach to 16 miles southwest of Malaquite Beach.
Movement was south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsville, Riviera Beach, Ricardo, Kingsville Naval Air Station,
Riviera, and Loyola Beach.

This includes US Highway 77 between mile markers 694 and 706.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2724 9759 2724 9763 2728 9765 2726 9772
      2735 9794 2753 9789 2745 9762 2727 9740
      2725 9740 2725 9741 2726 9742 2726 9745
      2725 9747 2725 9749 2724 9749 2724 9750
      2723 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1119Z 000DEG 6KT 2744 9781 2739 9763 2727 9748

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mottice

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
822 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     Flood            11 NE Loyola Beach      27.43N 97.56W
06/16/2025                   Kleberg            TX   Emergency Mngr

            Roads are starting to flood throughout the
            area.

&&

CLM