Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
744 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Issued Flood Watch for the Victoria Area for Today given the current
radar trends, Moderate ERO and slow moving synoptic scale trough
advancing across the state. Increased PoPs as well. Grids have
been updated and sent.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 737 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Low to moderate (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  continue tonight through the weekend.

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through Thursday

- Marginal to a slight risk for Excessive Rainfall through Friday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Ongoing convection early this morning will be focused mainly over
the Victoria Crossroads and along the northern Coastal Bend. A few
of these storms could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts
and hail possible. Another round of thunderstorms is likely this
afternoon and evening across the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads when an outflow boundary from storms to the north
pushes into the area. These storms are more likely (though the
risk is still marginal) to produce some strong to severe winds.

PWAT values from tonight's upper air release are 1.94 inches
(~80th percentile). This moisture will continue through at least
Friday so any of these storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall. This has led to a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
over the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains and a slight
risk over the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.
Additional rainfall totals from 0.25" across the southwest to
2.5" across the Victoria Crossroads are possible. Locally higher
values are possible which could lead to isolated to scattered
flash flooding.

Precipitation chances will diminish over the weekend, though low
to medium chances (20-40%) will persists over the Victoria
Crossroads and the Coastal Bend as a mid-level trough extends into
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A mixture of MVFR to VFR conditions still remain over the region.
A line of convection is continuing to march its way southwards
into the region. It is currently approaching the VCT terminal
currently. This is still expected to move into the northern
Coastal Plains shortly. A low to medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms will linger through the day excluding LRD. Expect
category changes near any storms though, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail across all sites by mid to late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A moderate to at times fresh breeze (BF 4-5) will persist into
next week, with periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions. A low to moderate (20-50%) chance of rain is expected
daily through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  79  93  80 /  40  20  20  10
Victoria          88  76  91  77 /  90  20  40  10
Laredo           100  79 102  80 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             97  76  97  78 /  40  10  20   0
Rockport          89  81  89  82 /  50  30  30  10
Cotulla           98  78 100  79 /  30  10  10   0
Kingsville        96  78  95  78 /  40  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       89  81  89  82 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-247-347.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM...JM/75
DISCUSSION...JM/75
AVIATION...TE/81

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
758 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     Rain             4 E Nursery             28.92N 97.03W
06/12/2025  M6.54 Inch       Victoria           TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet Site recorded 2.5 inch per hour
            rainfall rate.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
832 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 AM     Rain             3 NW Victoria           28.86N 97.01W
06/12/2025  M7.05 Inch       Victoria           TX   Mesonet

&&

JM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
834 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     Rain             2 NE Schroeder          28.82N 97.20W
06/12/2025  M5.34 Inch       Goliad             TX   Mesonet

&&

JM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
850 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 AM     Rain             2 NNW Telferner         28.86N 96.85W
06/12/2025  E4.00 Inch       Victoria           TX   Cocorahs

            4 inches of rain has fallen in past 2 hours.

&&

JM

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