Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
231 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move through the area this evening before a
cold front approaches from the west tonight into Thursday. This
front will settle near the Ohio River for Thursday into Friday
before a low pressure system forms and lifts this feature north
as a warm front Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7:45 PM Update...
There are a multitude of things we are keeping an eye on. In the
observations, we are watching the progress of the warm front,
which has moved into the southwest part of our forecast area.
There is a sharp T/Td gradient across this from with around
75/60 T/Td behind the front. As the warm front lifts
northeastward, should see a sharp increase in temperature and
dew point (which will contribute to an increase in instability
tonight.

Convection has already been ongoing for a few hours to our west
and southwest, especially in IN/IL and points to their south.
This may seem far away but strong wind flow is resulting in very
fast storm motions. Latest model guidance projects convection
impacting the I-75 corridor as early as 02Z. Severe weather
remains possible with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being
the primary weather hazards of concern. Wet conditions and high
rainfall rates should lead to at least minor flooding for a good
portion of the area, but the greater flash flooding risk
continues to trend a bit lower (still possible especially in
Northwest Ohio but should remain isolated), due to relatively
fast storm motions and gradually decreasing rainfall rates
through the overnight hours.

Previous Discussion...
The first round of showers and thunderstorms has exited stage
right this afternoon after a round of rain spanning 0.50-1.50",
some nuisance flooding, and some small and isolated large hail.
The main warm front to help trigger these storms is into central
Ohio and will continue to extend north across the forecast area
this evening. The advancement of this warm front will be key to
the severe weather threat across the area tonight. Temperatures
in Mount Vernon have crossed the 70 degree mark and Marion has
exceeded 60 degrees, but the gradient is tight with Findlay
still below 50 degrees and closer to the 40s near Lake Erie. The
front should advance to near Lake Erie by 8-9 PM and the western
two-thirds of the forecast area should reach at least 60 degrees
and some instability should build with 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE,
where 70s could still be achieved. This will be plenty of
instability to work with, as a strongly sheared air mass
continues to develop across the Ohio Valley with a 70 kt low
level jet at 850 mb entering tonight and mean 0-3 SRH values
exceeding 400 m2/s2. A line of convective development continues
to blossom across Illinois and Missouri and it will continue to
expand north and east with time this afternoon. This will
organize and be the main show that will enter a favorable
atmosphere for severe weather. Therefore, the Enhanced Risk
remains for the western forecast area with the Slight Risk
expanding to the east from there. All severe weather hazards
remain on the table with a few tornadoes embedded within a line
of convection, damaging wind gusts, including some significant
severe over 65 kts, and large hail. The timing will be into
Northwest Ohio around 8 PM and extending east through the night
around I-71 by Midnight and into the overnight. The trend in the
forecast is that these storms are more likely to move through
faster than previously anticipated and the flash flood threat
may be more conditional and slightly lessened. However, will
keep the flood watch with the overall wet pattern through the
weekend and will monitor for hydrological hazards tonight.

The cold front will be into the area Thursday morning and will
move southeast. The bulk of the storms will be southeast of the
area during the daytime hours and the Day 2 Severe Risk has been
removed from the area with the forecast trending dry. Highs in
the 60s may be achieved early in the day. The front will be to
the south of the forecast area on Thursday night but will be a
focus area for new rain development that may push north through
the night. Some efficient rainfall should enter the southern
forecast area and there could be some conditional flooding for
Central Ohio, as highlighted by a Day 2 Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be a lull to the active weather for most of Northern
Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania as the boundary stalls out to the
south in Southern Ohio. There maybe some scattered precipitation
throughout the day in Central Ohio, through most will stay dry. A
surface low and boundary will start to move northeastward from the
lower Mississippi Valley as a strong LLJ moves into the region. This
will bring back ample moisture from the south back into Northern
Ohio. Heavy rainfall will return to the region with the strong
moisture advection for starting late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. In turn, most of the CWA will continue to be in a MRGL risk
for excessive rainfall on Friday and a SLGT risk on Saturday. There
will be a flash flood and river flooding threat across much of the
region, with the highest probability across areas west of Interstate
71. Total rainfall forecast for Friday through Saturday night will
be from 2-4" across the region. There does lie a small, isolated
risk for severe weather across the far southwestern counties of the
CWA which warranted a MRGL risk from SPC, though it will be largely
overshadowed by the heavy rain threat. The best opportunity for any
sort of severe weather will be during the afternoon timeframe on
Saturday as temperatures start to climb with the southerly flow. An
approaching cold front from the northwest will start to push
everything out to the east late Saturday night.

Temperatures on Friday will fall a bit from earlier in the week as
we will be on the northern side of the boundary with highs in the
50s across the region. On Saturday, temperatures will rebound with
the southerly flow and high will reach into the mid to upper 60s.
Parts of Northwest Ohio may not hit the 60s as the approaching cold
front could keep the high temperatures down some.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front from the short term will be entering
the region from the northwest driven by a much larger upper level
trough that will be digging down into the Great Lakes region Sunday
night into Monday. A couple weaker low pressure systems and
associated cold fronts will move through the region with the upper
level trough through the beginning of the week. The initial cold
front on Sunday will drive out most of the precipitation in the
region throughout the day. There may be some lingering showers on
the back end in Eastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. A
secondary, weak low pressure system will move into the region on
Monday with a more widespread, though low probability, chance for
precipitation across the region. The northerly flow behind the
system and with a high pressure building to the west, will bring
down much colder air leading to the opportunity for a rain/snow mix
during the morning and overnight hours Monday and Tuesday. Rain/snow
showers will persist in the snowbelt through Tuesday night as the
high builds eastward across the region. Temperatures will be below
average to start next week with the the cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A line of thunderstorms between I-71/I-77 continues to move
east across the area, generally consisting of ceilings around
2-5kft, visibilities in the 2-6SM range, and the potential for
gusts in the 30-40 knot range. General tendency should be for
thunderstorms to weaken in intensity as they move east. The
cold front will move through the area late in the TAF period
with rain coverage decreasing and winds veering while remaining
with westerly gusts in the 20-30 knot range. MVFR ceilings
should still remain for a couple hours after the bulk of the
thunderstorms exit this morning but should quickly improve to
VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Rain showers return from
the south after 00Z this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may continue across the region
Thursday night into Friday with some non-VFR visibility possible
in showers and storms, mainly towards the southern part of the
forecast area. Non-VFR more likely areawide in showers and
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with non-VFR ceilings
continuing into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is still active for the entirety of the
nearshore zones through Thursday morning when the western half will
fall off and Thursday night for the eastern half. Winds will be
predominantly out of the south this evening at 15 to 25 before
increasing to 20 to 30 knots ahead of an approaching cold front.
Behind the cold front, winds will shift out of the west and subside
to 10 to 15 knots throughout the day on Thursday. Winds will
continue to decrease into the overnight hours and Friday morning and
veer to out of the north at 5 to 10 knots. Winds will stay light
through Friday before increasing Saturday morning to 10 to 15 knots.
There will be another shift in the winds Sunday morning with a
passing cold front bringing the winds out of the north at 10 to 15
knots which will continue through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-
     027>032-036>038-047.
PA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

LEZ061-142>146-149-162>166-169-040615-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ147-148-167-168-040615-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-040615-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Marion-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ010-011-020-029>031-037-038-047-040615-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Medina-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 103 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089-040615-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Portage-Trumbull-Mahoning-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

OHZ021-032-040615-
Summit-Stark-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

PAZ001-002-040615-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

PAZ003-040615-
Crawford-
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will move from west to east across the area tonight,
with some gusty winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
300 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     North Baltimore         41.18N 83.68W
04/02/2025                   Wood               OH   911 Call Center

            large tree fell onto a house resulting in
            structural damage. time estimated via radar.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
306 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Woodville         41.46N 83.42W
04/03/2025                   Wood               OH   911 Call Center

            Semi truck blown on its side on SR 23
            blocking all lanes. time estimated via
            radar.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
307 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Castalia          41.39N 82.77W
04/03/2025                   Erie               OH   Law Enforcement

            Bardshar Rd between Bogart Rd and Miller Rd
            closed due to a downed power pole and
            powerlines in roadway. Time estimated via
            radar.

&&

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
309 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Weston                  41.35N 83.79W
04/02/2025                   Wood               OH   911 Call Center

            Dispatch reports large tree across roadway
            with wires down.

&&

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
329 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

OHZ023-033-030815-
Mahoning OH-Trumbull OH-
329 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TRUMBULL AND MAHONING COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 AM EDT...

At 329 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Orwell to near Sebring. Movement was east
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Youngstown, Warren, Salem, Columbiana, Boardman, Niles, Campbell,
Hubbard, Canfield, Cortland, Newton Falls, Sebring, Lordstown,
Kinsman, North Bloomfield, West Farmington, Vienna Center,
Leavittsburg, Hilltop, and Maplewood Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8109 4099 8100 4150 8099 4150 8052
      4090 8052 4090 8082 4093 8083 4093 8089
      4090 8090 4090 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 263DEG 51KT 4150 8080 4088 8099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77