Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Cleveland, OH

869 
WHUS71 KCLE 150157
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
957 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

LEZ142>149-151000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.250315T0900Z-250316T0000Z/
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
957 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots 
  and waves up to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay OH 
  to Ripley NY.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

624 
WHUS71 KCLE 150748
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

LEZ142>144-151600-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.250315T0900Z-250316T2000Z/
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
  expected through tonight with west winds 15 to 25 knots expected
  Sunday. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Vermilion OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ145>148-151600-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.250315T1200Z-250317T0600Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
  and waves 1 to 4 feet expected through Sunday morning. West
  winds 15 to 25 knots with waves 3 to 5 feet expected Sunday
  afternoon and Sunday night. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ149-151600-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.250315T1200Z-250317T0200Z/
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 40 knots
  expected through Sunday morning, with west winds 15 to 25 knots
  expected Sunday afternoon and evening. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

440 
WHUS71 KCLE 151314
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

LEZ142>144-152115-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250316T2000Z/
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
914 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots 
  and waves 1 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Vermilion OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ145>148-152115-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0600Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
914 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
  and waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ149-152115-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
914 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots 
  and waves 1 to 2 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

530 
WHUS71 KCLE 151935
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

LEZ142>144-160345-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250316T2000Z/
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
335 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots 
  and waves 1 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Vermilion OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ145>148-160345-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0600Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
335 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 
  knots and waves 1 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ149-160345-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
335 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

717 
WHUS71 KCLE 160156
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
956 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

LEZ142>144-161000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250316T2000Z/
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
956 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Vermilion OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ145>148-161000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0600Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
956 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ149-161000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
956 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

560 
WHUS71 KCLE 160733
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

LEZ142>144-161545-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250316T2000Z/
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
333 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots
  this morning shifting west at 15 to 20 knots this afternoon.
  Waves 1 to 3 feet. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Vermilion OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ145>148-161545-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0600Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
333 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
  this morning, shifting west at 15 to 25 knots this afternoon.
  Waves 2 to 5 feet. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ149-161545-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
333 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 45 knots
  this morning, shifting west this afternoon and evening. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

735 
WHUS71 KCLE 161355
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
955 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

LEZ142>144-162000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250316T2000Z/
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
955 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots 
  this morning. Winds shift west at 15 to 20 knots this afternoon.
  Waves 1 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to 
  Vermilion OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ145>148-162200-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0600Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
955 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots this
  morning. Winds shift west at 15 to 20 knots this afternoon.
  Waves 2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ149-162200-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
955 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 45 
  knots. Winds shift west this afternoon and evening. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

701 
WHUS71 KCLE 162034
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
434 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

LEZ145>147-170445-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0800Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
434 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest and waves 3
  to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Geneva-on-the-Lake OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ148-170200-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
434 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots and 
  waves 1 to 2 feet in ice free areas. 

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Geneva-on-the- 
  Lake to Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ149-170200-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
434 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

295 
WHUS71 KCLE 170146
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
946 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

LEZ148-149-170300-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0200Z/
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
946 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft operations. 
Winds will continue to diminish tonight.

$$

LEZ145>147-170800-
/O.CON.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0800Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
946 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Geneva-on-the-Lake OH.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

590 
WHUS71 KCLE 170735
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

LEZ145>147-170845-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250317T0800Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
335 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Northwest winds have diminished to 10 to 15 knots. Waves remain 
2 to 4 feet this morning and will subside to 1 to 2 feet this 
afternoon. Because the waves are diminishing and will be falling 
below criteria shortly the Small Craft Advisory is being allowed 
to expire. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
155 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast across the area today. A
strong low pressure system will move out of the Rockies and into
the Great Lakes region this weekend. High pressure returns by
Monday and Tuesday before it departs to the east Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM Update...
Quite a big jump in the forecast for tomorrow with this update.
The overall picture suggests that the bulk of severe weather
should be in the Tennessee Valley south to the Gulf Coast.
Models continue to trend down with instability, especially in
regards to rebounding at all for Saturday afternoon. As a
result, SPC has downgraded the entire area to a Day 2 Marginal
Risk for severe weather. A full analysis of this will come with
the main package by 20Z today.

930 AM Update...
The forecast at this point remains on track with pleasant
conditions expected today. The only minor adjustment made was to
dewpoint temperatures as conditions remain a bit drier than
previously forecast with observations keeping current dewpoints
in the low 30s.

Previous Discussion...
Quiet weather to start the near term period has scattered high-
level cirrus streams across the area this morning. Wide range of
temperatures are observed this morning with low to mid 30s near
the lakeshore to mid 40s farther to the south in central Ohio. A
warm front moves northeast across the region today, with strong
warm air advection with southerly flow bringing temperatures
into the low to mid 70s by the afternoon. This will be a 30-40
degree diurnal difference for much of the area!

All eyes are to the west right now however as low pressure over
the central Great Plains is expected to deepen today and tonight
and lift northeast across the Midwest to around Lake Superior by
Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop in the
afternoon/evening hours well out to the west and approach
Northwest Ohio very late tonight into the early morning hours on
Saturday. These storms will quickly congeal into a quasi-linear
convective system (QLCS) that will approach from the west late
tonight and move across the area during the morning hours. It's
likely this QLCS will contain strong to severe wind gusts as it
moves across Indiana and approaches from the west, but the
instability will be much lower over Ohio and will be elevated,
which should result in a weakening QLCS. This is generally
supported by modeled reflectivity from hi-res CAMs, although
models such as the HRRR and NAM Nest do have a few very weak UD
helicity swaths. Despite the general expectations of weak
convection, that line will be worth monitoring as sometimes
these decaying QLCS's in a strongly forced/sheared environment
tend to last longer than expected.

The real severe weather threat and reason for the day 2 slight
SPC slight risk is for the afternoon timeframe and beyond. The
morning convection should exit to the east by the early
afternoon, though there is considerable uncertainty with the
evolution of additional afternoon convection and its associated
severe weather risk. General expectation is that there will be
at least a couple few hours of dry weather behind the departing
line of showers and thunderstorms, although a couple hi-res CAMs
kick off additional convection right behind (i.e. like the
HRRR, though this is unintuitive because there is usually
subsidence behind a line of storms like this). What's more
likely is that that there will be rain-cooled air and subsidence
that limits additional convective development for a couple
hours, and then we will need time for the atmosphere to recover
afterwards for additional convective development. This is where
there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding airmass recovery
and then location of additional convective development after
~18Z either along a pre-frontal trough in northwest Ohio (west
of I-71, HRRR, ARW, and WRF-NSSL have this) or closer to the
cold front to our west in Indiana (NAM nest and FV3 have this,
this seems less likely). If we can get convective development
between 18-00Z (that's a big if and where the greatest
uncertainty lies!) then it would develop in an environment very
much supportive of severe weather, especially west of I-71 where
model guidance generally has MUCAPE of ~1000 J/kg and deep
layer shear of 50-60 knots. Storm mode would likely be
supercells with any initial isolated to scattered develop
between 18-21Z with all severe weather hazards on the table,
including wind, hail, and tornadoes. It's also possible that the
complex of thunderstorms that develops well to south moves in
from the south a little quicker than expected (i.e. what the
HRRR is showing arriving between 21-23Z), which would also
support a better severe risk, though more than likely it arrives
after 00Z (for which additional details can be seen in the
short term section).

Outside of the convection, strong synoptic-scale winds are
expected throughout the day Saturday. Currently, the forecast
calls for 40-45 mph wind gusts with up to 50 mph west of a
Marion-Sandusky line, though the potential for isolated wind
gusts to 50 mph exists as far east as the I-77 corridor. A wind
advisory may be needed for a portion of Northwest Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
In terms of synoptic features, we expect to start Saturday evening
with fairly deep low pressure near Lake Superior extending a cold
front south across western Michigan/Indiana and into the western
Ohio Valley. A wave of low pressure along the front is expected to
lift north-northeast across western Ohio and towards central Lake
Erie overnight Saturday night into early Sunday, with the cold front
getting pulled east across the forecast area late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. A secondary cold front with a stronger airmass
change will cross later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. We can
say with confidence that the start of the short term, from Saturday
night into Sunday, will be "unsettled" or "active". However,
confidence in details regarding potential impacts/hazards such as
severe weather, locally heavy rain, and gusty/strong non-convective
wind gusts is relatively lower.

Any isolated/scattered convection that fires in the afternoon
(discussed in the near term) across Northwest or North Central could
linger into Saturday evening. Otherwise, all eyes will turn to our
south and southwest. Potential for rain quickly ramps up from the
south-southwest Saturday evening into the overnight as the
aforementioned wave of low pressure on the front...along with
accompanying dual upper jet support, mid-level PVA/height falls, and
very strong low-mid level jet...lift into western and north-central
OH. It's likely that extensive convection will fire to our west and
southwest (closer to both the front and greater instability)
Saturday afternoon and lift north-northeast towards our region with
the greater forcing and low-level jet through Saturday night.
However, the convection will be moving into an increasingly more
stable airmass and it is very much an open question how robust it
remains through the night across our forecast area. Have categorical
POPs (80-100%) area-wide Saturday night as confidence in rain is
pretty high...this rain (and what's left of any convection) will
likely linger into Sunday morning across far eastern OH into PA
before departing as the cold front exits east. The base of the upper
trough and an associated vort max swing into the area through the
day Sunday as the secondary cold front with a greater airmass change
crosses. This will provide a secondary source for showers from west
to east through the day Sunday. A weakening low-mid level
deformation zone swings through Sunday night and may return some
very light precip, primarily to Northeast OH and Northwest PA. This
precip may mix with a bit of snow with no accumulation.

Looking closer at the severe potential...this is a difficult threat
to message given a lower confidence threat locally during the
afternoon/early evening followed by additional convection trying to
lift in Saturday night. Given a couple of different windows of
potential and the generally excessive amount of shear and forcing
involved, do understand why the Storm Prediction Center maintains a
Slight Risk (risk level 2/5) for most of our forecast area for the
Saturday-Saturday night timeframe. However, the thermodynamic side
of things is quite marginal Saturday night when confidence in rain
and at least some leftover convection making it in from the south-
southwest is higher. Forecast soundings from various models suggest
extreme low-level shear Saturday night, particularly between about 3-
9z (11 PM to 5 AM). For instance, soundings suggest mean flow in the
lowest 1km of 45-55kt in this timeframe with 0-1km storm relative
helicity (SRH) of 400-600+ m2/s2, along with 0-3km bulk shear values
of 55-65kt. A lack of shear won't be a limiting factor, and given a
lack of a low-level inversion and the mean 0-1km flow it would take
relatively weak convection to produce strong to locally severe
gusts. However, many models suggest temperatures cooling into the
mid 50s to near 60 for much of Saturday night, which likely would be
cool enough to preclude much/if any surface-based CAPE and
significantly limit any threat for tornadoes. However, if
temperatures are even slightly warmer, at or a bit above 60, some
(weak) surface-based CAPE would likely persist through the
night...and most of this CAPE would be focused in the lowest 3km,
which is important for mesovortex formation in any linear convective
segments. Any amount of low-level instability would introduce some
potential for surging/bowing segments with locally enhanced wind
damage potential and QLCS spin-up tornado potential. While most
models don't explicitly show these warmer surface temperatures
overnight, given cloud cover and strong southerly flow it is
possible temperatures can stay at or slightly above 60 for much of
the night if there isn't too much rain activity during the evening.

To sum it up, the threat for severe weather with activity lifting in
from the south-southwest Saturday night is conditional and
uncertain, but worth monitoring given the extreme low-level wind
fields and how sensitive the situation is to even a few degree
change in surface temperatures. Damaging convective wind gusts would
be the main threat, though some QLCS style tornado potential would
accompany a slightly warmer/more unstable solution. Feel the
greatest risk is likely west of the I-77 corridor, as this region
will be closer to the front in that 11 PM to 5 AM window when
forcing and shear appear to maximize. This isn't to say there won't
be an isolated threat farther east into early Sunday morning, though
shear and forcing weaken slightly and surface temperatures will have
a bit longer to cool east of I-77, so the already conditional/
uncertain threat only becomes iffier farther east. Severe weather is
not expected with the trailing secondary cold front on Sunday,
though some low-topped instability could develop by midday with
moderately strong wind fields persisting. This could allow for some
"gusty" low-topped showers.

In terms of non-convective wind gusts, 30-40 MPH wind gusts will be
possible just about anywhere Saturday evening and night beneath the
roaring low-level jet (i.e. 40-50kt at 925mb and 60-70kt+ at 850mb).
The synoptic/non-convective gusts will generally be strongest where
southeast flow downsloping occurs (mainly near the lakeshore from
Cleveland points northeast and to a slightly lesser extent along the
western Central Highlands down towards Mansfield and Marion)...with
the gustiest non-convective winds across the board generally
occurring when rain isn't falling. A Wind Advisory may be needed for
a portion of the area for Saturday night, with the greatest concern
in the downsloping areas outlined above.

Total QPF continues to range from roughly 0.50-1.50" in the
forecast, highest across Northwest and North Central OH. Given
recent dry weather, this should be manageable. However, given
convection is involved with multiple roughs potentially lifting
north-northeast across the area through early Sunday, a locally
higher amount over 2.00" is possible. If that played out some
localized flooding would become a concern.

A wedge of high pressure quickly slides through later Sunday night
into Monday, bringing a return to quiet weather and allowing return
flow and warm air advection to begin quickly starting Monday
afternoon. Lows Saturday night are expected to range from near 50 in
Toledo to the mid-upper 50s elsewhere. Expect a non-diurnal trend
Sunday given strong cold advection kicking in behind the secondary
front. Have highs ranging from the mid 50s in Toledo to the low-mid
60s east of the I-71 corridor, with these highs generally occurring
during the morning or early afternoon. Lows will generally reach the
low to mid 30s Sunday night with highs ranging from the upper 40s to
mid 50s on Monday. Lows Monday night are forecast to range from the
mid to upper 30s east of I-71 to the low 40s to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A trough is expected to dig into the west Monday night and Tuesday,
ejecting into the Plains on Wednesday and lifting into the Great
Lakes Thursday. This will spark surface low development over the
Plains on Tuesday, with this low tracking into the northern Great
Lakes by Thursday while dragging a cold front through the local area
late Wednesday night or Thursday. Dry and warm conditions are
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs returning to the 60s
on Tuesday and making a run towards the 70s on Wednesday. Southwest
winds will be gusty on Wednesday. Rain changes accompany the cold
front late Wednesday night into Thursday, with some wrap-around
showers continuing at times Thursday and Thursday night. There is a
decent chunk of colder air behind the front, so any lingering
showers could mix with or change to snow by Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to continue through much
of tonight as the area remains under the influence of an upper
level ridge. Increased mixing heights this afternoon have
resulted in some gusty winds across western terminals. Sustained
southerly winds for terminals along and west of I71 will be
10-13 knots, gusting up to 20 knots through sunset this evening.
For other terminals, winds will be sustained at at 5-11 knots
from the south-southeast, but with a shallower mixing layer, not
expecting gusts.

During the overnight hours, a cut-off low pressure system is
expected to track northeast across the western Great Lakes
region, increasing the gradient across the CWA. This will result
in winds becoming enhanced after 00Z, gradually spreading from
west to east through daybreak Saturday. Sustained winds from the
south are expected to be 15-20 knots, gusting up to 35 to 40
knots for all terminals along and west of I71, which is where
the strong LLJ of 55-60 knots will be positioned. Highest gusts
are expected at KFDY and KTOL, possibly exceeding 40 knots
during Saturday afternoon. Uncertain how many of these gusts
will occur during this TAF period, but found it worth noting.
For KCAK and KYNG, winds will be sustained from the south-
southeast at 12-15 knots, gusting up to 30 knots near the end of
this TAF period. At KERI, there will be locally enhanced winds
due to the effect of downsloping, with sustained winds of 15-20
knots, gusting up to 30 knots. Opted to handle TAFs with gusts
and not LLWS, but it is worth noting that LLWS values late
tonight and Saturday will be 40 to 50 knots.

Along with the gusty winds, this strong low pressure system will
also bring the potential for multiple rounds of showers,
possibly some thunder, across the area. The first of these
rounds will be near daybreak Saturday, which may result in some
patchy MVFR ceilings and visibilities, especially in the
heaviest showers. Cannot rule out some thunder with models
suggesting elevated instability, however confidence was low so
opted to not include with this update.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR with occasional showers and
thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. VFR conditions
expected to return for the start of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions are expected through this weekend as
deep low pressure lifts out of the Plains and into the northern
Great Lakes. A warm front will surge northward across Lake Erie
tonight ahead of the low, with a cold front sweeping east across the
lake late Saturday night into Sunday as the low goes by. East winds
will shift southeast today at 15kt or less. Winds shift southerly
tonight and increase to 15-25kt overnight tonight into Saturday.
Southerly winds generally persist at 15-25kt through Sunday morning,
before veering west-northwest at 15-25kt behind the cold front
during the day Sunday. Winds will turn more northwesterly while
gradually subsiding to 15kt or less overnight Sunday night into
Monday. South-southwest flow will likely become brisk by Wednesday.
Nearly all ice is gone west of Erie, PA, so these winds will build
waves this weekend across much of the lake. The southerly winds will
build 3 to 6 foot waves late tonight through early Sunday, with the
largest waves in the open waters. As winds shift west-northwest
Sunday into Sunday night the waves will persist at 3 to 6 feet and
become directed towards the central and eastern shoreline west of
Erie where the ice is gone. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed starting overnight tonight or early Saturday, with conditions
then occasionally reaching criteria through Sunday evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-
     006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...04/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Sullivan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
505 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-150915-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
505 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A low pressure system will move across the region this weekend, with
southerly wind gusts of 40 mph or greater possible on Saturday and
Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday
and Saturday night, a few of which may become severe. The potential
for severe thunderstorms is uncertain and dependent on the amount of
rain that occurs Saturday morning. Heavy rain Saturday could also
lead to isolated instances of minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-150915-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
505 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.