Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
405 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sweeps southeastward through our region this evening.
Behind the front, a trough is expected to linger over northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this weekend as a ridge
attempts to build from the north-central United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, cyclonic SW'erly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our region through Saturday as a trough axis moves
SE'ward from the northwestern Great Lakes and central Great
Plains to near the central Great Lakes and Mid MS Valley by
sunset Saturday evening. In addition, a mid/upper-level low is
expected to develop over/near central and then southern IL on
Saturday. At the surface, a cold front should sweep generally
SE'ward through our region this evening. Behind the front, a
trough lingers over the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley
through Saturday as a ridge attempts to build from the north-
central U.S. In addition, as the front settles near the OH
Valley tonight, multiple surface lows accompanying the
aforementioned shortwave disturbances are expected to move
NE'ward along the front. During the day on Saturday, one of
these lows is expected to deepen appreciably as it moves NE'ward
from the Lower OH Valley toward the Mid OH Valley and coincides
with greater mid/upper-level divergence and MSLP falls,
respectively, downstream of the aforementioned trough axis
aloft. Low-level CAA behind the cold front is expected to
contribute to overnight lows reaching the mid 40's to mid 50's
around daybreak Saturday. On Saturday, abundant cloud cover and
continued low-level CAA are expected to limit daytime highs to
the lower 50's to lower 60's. The coolest highs are expected
along/near the southern shore of Lake Erie due to persistent
NE'erly onshore flow from the ~52F lake.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to persist
along/ahead of the cold front as low-level convergence/moist
ascent along the front and downshear outflow boundaries
interacting favorably with ambient low-level vertical shear
release weak to moderate warm/moist sector boundary layer CAPE
amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear. This
thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to support
some storms becoming severe through this early evening, before
the boundary layer begins to stabilize via nocturnal cooling
later this evening. Severe hail the size of quarters or
slightly bigger remains a concern since boundary layer CAPE
magnitudes are expected to support sizable MUCAPE in the hail
growth zone, despite weak mid-level lapse rates, and favorable
ambient melting levels near 9kft to 10kft AGL persist in the
warm sector. Isolated straight-line convective wind damage
remains possible as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer yields steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE near 500 to
600 J/kg through this early evening. SW'erly mean mid-level
flow, essentially parallel to the cold front, will continue to
permit training showers/thunderstorms. Thus, isolated flash
flooding remains a concern since periods of heavy rain are also
expected with showers/storms as a low-level return flow of moist
air from the Gulf continues to yield unusually-high PWAT values
in the warm sector. Behind the cold front, periods of light to
moderate rain are expected tonight, especially after midnight,
and through Saturday as the warm conveyor belts of the
aforementioned frontal lows enhance moist isentropic ascent
aloft. In addition, the low's cyclonic circulations should be
accompanied by frontogenetical convergence aloft amidst
sufficient moisture and the forcing for ascent should release
weak potential instability.

On Saturday night, the trough axis aloft is expected to drift
SE'ward toward Lake Huron and the Mid OH Valley as the
mid/upper-level low wobbles SE'ward toward the Mid OH Valley. At
the surface, the aforementioned ridge continues to attempt to
build from the north-central U.S. as troughing lingers over Lake
Erie, northern OH, and NW PA. The aforementioned surface low
should become occluded and wobble in vicinity of the Mid OH
Valley as it becomes vertically-stacked with the low aloft.
Periods of light to moderate rain are expected to persist as the
low pressure system's warm conveyor belt continues to undergo
moist isentropic ascent aloft and the bifurcating warm conveyor
belt continues to contribute to frontogenetical convergence
aloft, amidst sufficient moisture, and these lifting mechanisms
continue to release weak potential instability. Continued
NE'erly surface flow, associated with weak synoptic low-level
CAA, will contribute to overnight lows reaching mainly the mid
40's to lower 50's around daybreak Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cut-off and nearly vertically stacked low pressure will linger
over the Ohio River Valley through the short term period, presenting
continued chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area as
moisture wraps around the center of the low. Deeper moisture will be
present on Sunday, leading to a more likely chance of widespread
precipitation chances. On Monday, the moisture diminishes a bit as
the low weakens slightly, which should lead to more scattered
showers and thunderstorms. It is interesting to note that on Monday,
southeast flow will persist over the area with models suggesting
CAPE values of more than 1000 J/kg by the afternoon hours with shear
values of 30-40 knots. This flow is atypical for severe weather
patterns across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, but it
isn't impossible so will have to continue to monitor the forecast
for Monday.

Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s before warming
into the mid 60s to low 70s on MOnday. The warmest temperatures will
be located east of the low pressure center, or roughly along I77 and
areas east. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cut-off low pressure system should finally drift to the
northeast on Tuesday as the synoptic weather pattern shifts and
becomes more progressive. Some lingering showers are possible on
Tuesday, especially across the eastern portion of the area, before
the area briefly dries out Tuesday night. On Wednesday, low pressure
will move across the northern Great Lakes, dragging another cold
front east and presenting another potential for showers across the
area. High pressure should finally build over the area by Wednesday
evening into the overnight hours, gradually drying out the entire
area for the remainder of the period.

Temperatures through the period will remain near normal with highs
climbing into the 60s, possibly touching low 70s. Overnight lows
will remain in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Aloft, SW'erly to WSW'erly flow and embedded disturbances
affect our region through 18Z/Sat as a trough approaches from
the northwestern Great Lakes and central Great Plains. Accordingly,
a surface trough lingers over our region through 18Z/Sat. In
addition, a surface cold front is expected to sweep generally
SE'ward through our area between ~21Z/Fri and ~04Z/Sat as
multiple weak surface low pressure centers move NE'ward along
the front. Behind the front, a ridge attempts to build from the
north-central United States.

Ahead of the cold front, SW'erly to WSW'erly regional surface
winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected. These winds will gust
up to 20 knots or so at times through this early evening. Behind
the cold front, our regional surface winds veer to NW'erly and
ease to around 5 to 10 knots before becoming lighter and
variable in direction for a time tonight. Overnight tonight
through 18Z/Sat, our regional surface winds become NE'erly
around 10 to 15 knots.

Ahead of the cold front, widespread low clouds and resulting
ceilings in the 2kft to 5kft AGL range are expected. Behind the
front, widespread MVFR ceilings should develop overnight tonight
and linger through 18Z/Sat. IFR ceilings are possible. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
cold front. Brief MVFR to LIFR are possible with showers and
especially storms since periods of torrential rainfall are
expected. Hail up to golf ball-size and brief/erratic surface
wind gusts up to 55 knots are possible with thunderstorms
through this early evening. Behind the cold front, periods of
light to moderate rain and widespread mist with MVFR visibility
are a concern this evening and especially from ~04Z/Sat through
18Z/Sat as moist/ascending airstreams accompany the
aforementioned frontal lows.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
expected on Saturday through Wednesday, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure centered over southern Ontario will continue to move a
cold front east across Lake Erie today, shifting winds across all
basins to the northwest at 5-10 knots. On Saturday, a low pressure
is expected to develop over the Ohio River Valley, shifting winds
across Lake Erie to the northeast. As this low strengthens on
Saturday, winds will increase to 15-25 knots from the northeast by
Saturday night. This will result in waves building to 3-5 feet with
largest waves across the western and central basins. These
conditions will persist into Sunday night and will need a Small
Craft Advisory. There may be locally gusty winds across the western
basin Saturday morning, however the magnitude looks to remain
very marginal and thus did not issue a Small Craft for that time.

The aforementioned low lingers over the area into Tuesday morning.
By Monday the low will weaken enough to have sustained winds of 10-
15 knots. On Monday night and into Tuesday, the low shifts to the
northeast and a southwest flow becomes re-established at 5-10 knots
through Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday,
allowing for winds of 10-15 knots from the northeast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...04

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