Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Cleveland, OH

509 
WWUS51 KCLE 132247
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
647 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

OHC083-132300-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-250513T2300Z/
Knox OH-
647 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY...

At 647 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Gambier, or
over Mount Vernon, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Gambier, Mount Vernon, Martinsburg, and Utica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8239 4025 8248 4026 8248 4026 8249
      4038 8259 4049 8242 4034 8225 4027 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 131DEG 15KT 4039 8243 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Kahn

193 
WWUS51 KCLE 132254
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
654 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

OHC083-132303-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-250513T2300Z/
Knox OH-
654 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4024 8239 4025 8248 4026 8248 4026 8249
      4038 8259 4049 8242 4034 8225 4027 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 131DEG 15KT 4040 8245 

$$

Kahn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
429 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to lift into the region tonight
before opening into an upper trough on Wednesday. The trough will
lift northeast of the local area Wednesday night, allowing an upper
ridge to cross the region on Thursday. A warm front will cross the
area Thursday evening, followed by a cold front late Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low will lift into the region this evening and churn
across the local area overnight before opening into an upper trough
by Wednesday afternoon. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms
will continue to lift northwest into the region this afternoon into
this evening before slowly diminishing after sunset tonight.
Isolated sub-severe gusty winds are possible in wet downbursts
thanks to the moist air mass through early evening. Showers/storms
may train, which could result in an isolated (generally nuisance)
flooding risk.

Maintained slight chance to low end chance PoPs (around 20 to 30
percent) late tonight into Wednesday morning, but it's possible that
most locations remain dry until another round of showers and
possibly thunderstorms lifts into the region Wednesday afternoon.
Moist lower levels and relatively light surface winds could allow
patchy fog to develop at inland locations in Ohio zones tonight. The
severe weather/flooding risk remains low Wednesday, but there may be
a scenario like today where the high moisture content may result in
wet (sub-severe) downbursts and training precip. PoPs will taper off
with the loss of diurnal instability Wednesday evening with only
slight chance PoPs continuing into the overnight as the upper trough
lifts northeast into the NE CONUS and a ridge begins to build in
from the west.

Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees tonight
and Wednesday night with temps most likely reaching the lower 70s on
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough finally departs to the east on Thursday with
low chances of rain, mainly in the east during the morning.
Southwesterly flow and warm advection will increase through the
day with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s in the west to
mid 70s in the east. A capping inversion is also expected to
develop during the afternoon with an EML above it. An upper
level trough with mid-level dry-slot lifts into the western
Great Lakes on Thursday with convection possibly firing Thursday
evening as the associated surface trough reaches NW Ohio. A
plume of deeper moisture may approach from the southwest during
the evening, helping to erode the cap. CAPE of 2000 J/kg or more
is projected across Indiana and into NW Ohio indicating that
storms could be strong if they develop. Bulk shear of 30-40
knots is also expected during the evening but will shift east
and decrease through the overnight hours. Considerable
uncertainty remains in storm initiation and evolution on
Thursday night but will need to monitor for severe weather if
thunderstorms for develop. The Storm Prediction Center has
included a Slight Chance of Severe Thunderstorms in NW Ohio with
a Marginal Risk farther east. Will keep fairly high pops f 50-70
percent in the forecast for Thursday night.

Precipitation is expected to exit to the east on Friday with
perhaps a chance of thunderstorms in the south during the
afternoon. Another piece of energy digs into the upper trough to
our west on Friday then rapidly moves east across Ohio on
Friday night. This will bring another good chance of rain Friday
night across the southern counties. There is some potential for
strong storms again with moderate instability and favorable
shear but could also miss us to the south. Temperatures will be
well above normal in the low 80s again on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Precipitation will exit to the east on Saturday morning with
conditions drying out over the weekend as high pressure builds
south into the Great Lakes region. By Sunday temperatures will
be in the mid 60s in NW Pennsylvania to low 70s in Ohio with
lower humidity. Early next week is expected to start off dry
with a ridge building overhead on Tuesday. Will need to watch
for energy and a chance of thunderstorms to arrive ahead of the
ridge on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Showers will continue to fill in as they lift northeast into the
region this afternoon with coverage peaking through early
evening. Embedded thunderstorms are possible primarily at
KFDY/KMFD/KCAK through early evening, but have also included
PROB30 groups for thunderstorms at KCLE and KTOL for several
hours. Ceilings will fluctuate between MVFR and IFR this
afternoon, however there will likely be some clearing and an
opportunity for some VFR ceilings across southern zones this
afternoon into this evening. Any showers/storms could produce
non-VFR visibilities. Shower/thunderstorm coverage should
gradually diminish after sunset, although non-VFR conditions
will most likely persist at most terminals through the end of
the TAF period. Confidence in ceilings is somewhat low late
tonight into early Wednesday; some aviation guidance suggests
that cigs could drop to LIFR in low stratus across the majority
of the area while other guidance members maintain MVFR cigs
through the overnight. Opted for the more optimistic guidance
across the majority of the area for the time being, but future
updates may include lower ceilings. Patchy fog may develop
tonight and continue through early Wednesday morning.

Winds will be out of the southeast at 6 to 12 knots this
afternoon with winds at western terminals becoming more easterly
this evening. Southerly flow will begin to develop Wednesday
morning. There's some potential for LLWS from KCLE to KCAK east
tonight, however it appears that the LLJ will be quite
marginal so omitted any LLWS from this update.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
possible through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
East to southeast flow of 10-15 knots will continue on Lake Erie
into Thursday as a trough of weak low pressure slowly lifts
north through the Ohio Valley. The trough will weaken Wednesday
night with a warm front lifting north across Lake Erie Thursday
night. Some stronger thunderstorms may accompany the front
Thursday night. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots will develop
Thursday with 10-20 knots on Friday and Saturday. There is some
chance of needing a Small Craft Advisory on the east half of
Lake Erie on Saturday. Winds will shift to westerly Sunday then
to the north on Sunday as high pressure builds south into the
Great Lakes Region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
351 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-140800-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
351 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-140800-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
351 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie, eastern
Lake Erie and western Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

OHZ037-047-131915-
Morrow OH-Knox OH-
223 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MORROW AND WESTERN KNOX
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sunbury to near Johnstown. Movement was
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chesterville, Fulton, Sparta, Marengo, Cardington, Centerburg, and
Ashley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 8275 4035 8275 4036 8293 4041 8293
      4042 8295 4052 8296 4052 8262 4027 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 159DEG 19KT 4019 8283 4020 8261

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

OHZ047-132300-
Knox OH-
615 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Gambier, or 11 miles southeast of Mount Vernon,
moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gambier, Mount Vernon, Martinsburg, and Bladensburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 8248 4026 8248 4026 8249 4042 8253
      4048 8242 4048 8232 4038 8224 4025 8219
      4025 8220 4024 8221 4024 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 135DEG 15KT 4030 8228

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn