Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the local area today. Low
pressure will meander across the Ohio Valley over the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

1:13 PM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 7 PM
EDT this evening for most of NW and north-central OH, the
nearshore waters of Lake Erie's central basin, and all of NE OH
and NW PA. The greatest potential for severe storms exists
roughly along and east of I-71 in our CWA, where greater
daytime heating and resulting destabilization of the warm/moist
sector boundary layer are expected through this late afternoon.
Please see discussion below for further details.

10:02 AM EDT Update...

Forecast largely remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance, but based on those trends, increased today's
forecast high temperatures slightly in/near Erie, PA since peeks
of sunshine and a lack of onshore surface flow from ~52F Lake
Erie should allow highs to be near 70F this afternoon. A pre-
cold front surface trough axis should sweep generally SE'ward
through our region early this afternoon through early evening,
while the surface cold front should sweep generally SE'ward
through our region early this evening through about midnight
tonight. Isolated to scattered and organized showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
pre-front surface trough axis and cold front as both lifting
mechanisms release weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE amidst
moderate to strong effective bulk shear near 35 to 45 knots.
Convection initiation should occur between about 11 AM and 2 PM
EDT today in/near our CWA. Severe thunderstorms in the form of
multicells and a few supercells remain a concern, especially
this afternoon through early evening, since peeks of
sunshine/daytime warming are expected to result in appreciable
warm/moist sector boundary layer destabilization. Severe hail
the size of quarters to perhaps golf balls remains a concern
since model soundings (e.g. 06Z/Fri and 12Z/Fri HRRR soundings)
continue to depict sizable MUCAPE in the hail growth zone,
despite weak mid-level lapse rates, and favorable ambient
melting levels near 9kft to 10kft AGL. Straight-line convective
wind damage also remains a concern since diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer should yield steep low-level lapse
rates and DCAPE near 500 to 600 J/kg this afternoon through
early evening. Tornadoes are not a concern since unidirectional
low-level vertical wind shear, including limited speed shear,
is expected to limit the magnitude of surface-based ESRH.
Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

Outside of a small chance of a few stray showers and/or
thunderstorms, the weather will generally remain dry for the
start of the near term period before PoPs increase late this
morning into this afternoon as a cold front meanders east across
the local area. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
likely blossom ahead of the front at around 18Z/2 PM before
slowly moving east and either diminishing in southeastern zones
or exiting just to the southeast of the CWA shortly after 00Z/8
PM this evening. The front will slow or stall in this area as an
upper trough digs into the Mississippi Valley and begins to
cutting off into an upper low in the latter half of the near
term period.

There's still some uncertainty in where showers/storms initiate
this afternoon and how widespread any precip will be, but
currently thinking the highest (likely) PoPs will generally be
along and east of the I-71 corridor where there will be an
opportunity for destabilization through peak diurnal heating.
Given MLCAPE values of at least 1500 J/kg and about 30 knots of
effective bulk shear in this area, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms remain possible ahead of the front this afternoon
into this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, but instances of large hail and locally heavy rainfall
cannot be ruled out. The area of interest has been highlighted
in a Marginal Risk of severe weather with a Slight Risk scraping
the far southern reaches of the CWA. As of now, it appears that
the best dynamics will remain to the south of the local area.

Rain chances will likely dwindle for a few hours after 00Z
tonight before moisture surges into the region ahead of a
surface low developing over the Ohio/Tennessee valleys
overnight. Showers will likely overspread the majority of the
CWA through Saturday as the low churns over the Ohio Valley
with the highest rain chances once again expected along and east
of the I-71 corridor. There will probably be a narrow corridor
of instability across southeastern zones during peak heating
Saturday so have maintained a slight chance of thunder. Periods
of moderate rain are possible Saturday morning and afternoon,
however QPF values across most of the area will likely be about
half an inch or less with locally higher amounts possible in
southern zones. The flooding risk remains relatively low, but
there may be some ponding and perhaps some nuisance flooding in
locations that receive multiple rounds of rain.

Today's highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s with
tonight's lows falling into the upper 40s to low to mid 50s.
Temps will be much cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s
expected areawide. Northeast winds off of Lake Erie will likely
result in slightly cooler temperatures across portions of
north-central/northwestern Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cut-off low remains over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys,
remaining there through the short term period. At the surface, low
pressure moves into the Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday,
becoming occluded/collocated with the upper-low as it retrogrades
backwards Sunday night into Monday. Deep moisture will linger into
Saturday night and Sunday, which is when there may be more persistent
periods of rain showers. The upper low weakens a bit on Monday, with
showers expected to be more scattered, and cloudy conditions
Saturday through Sunday night, giving way to a bit more sun (i.e.
partly sunny) on Monday. Monday afternoon could present with a
sneaky low end severe weather threat for the eastern half our
forecast with the mean ensemble guidance showing about 500-750 J/kg
MUCAPE and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear. Certainly a more unique
set up due to the upper low and subsequent south to southeast shear
vector.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper low overhead on Tuesday should depart to the east Tuesday
night with surface high pressure building in on Wednesday and
Thursday. Scattered showers will be possible on Tuesday, and should
be dry outside of that, unless the upper-low is slower than
expected, then there could be a few more showers Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will near climatological normals with highs
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Aloft, SW'erly to WSW'erly flow and embedded disturbances
affect our region through 18Z/Sat as a trough approaches from
the northwestern Great Lakes and central Great Plains. Accordingly,
a surface trough lingers over our region through 18Z/Sat. In
addition, a surface cold front is expected to sweep generally
SE'ward through our area between ~21Z/Fri and ~04Z/Sat as
multiple weak surface low pressure centers move NE'ward along
the front. Behind the front, a ridge attempts to build from the
north-central United States.

Ahead of the cold front, SW'erly to WSW'erly regional surface
winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected. These winds will gust
up to 20 knots or so at times through this early evening. Behind
the cold front, our regional surface winds veer to NW'erly and
ease to around 5 to 10 knots before becoming lighter and
variable in direction for a time tonight. Overnight tonight
through 18Z/Sat, our regional surface winds become NE'erly
around 10 to 15 knots.

Ahead of the cold front, widespread low clouds and resulting
ceilings in the 2kft to 5kft AGL range are expected. Behind the
front, widespread MVFR ceilings should develop overnight tonight
and linger through 18Z/Sat. IFR ceilings are possible. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
cold front. Brief MVFR to LIFR are possible with showers and
especially storms since periods of torrential rainfall are
expected. Hail up to golf ball-size and brief/erratic surface
wind gusts up to 55 knots are possible with thunderstorms
through this early evening. Behind the cold front, periods of
light to moderate rain and widespread mist with MVFR visibility
are a concern this evening and especially from ~04Z/Sat through
18Z/Sat as moist/ascending airstreams accompany the
aforementioned frontal lows.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
expected on Saturday through Wednesday, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front settles south of Lake Erie today, with southwest to
west flow today quickly becoming northeast tonight and through the
weekend as low pressure moves northeast into the Ohio Valley.
Northeast flow generally expected to be in the 15-20 knot range,
with speeds possibly reaching the 25-30 knots range at times
Saturday through Sunday night. It's expected a small craft advisory
will be needed, although start/end time is a little uncertain at
this time. Best wave/wind potential is expected to be in the western
and central basin of Lake Erie. Northeast flow should continue on
Monday, though winds/waves should improve

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/15
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
101 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

LEZ061-142>144-162>169-OHZ003-006>009-017-031715-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-
101 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this
early evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts and small to
marginally-severe hail will be the primary hazards along with
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ145>149-OHZ010>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-
031715-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-
Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
101 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     Hail             1 S Norwalk             41.23N 82.61W
05/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Huron              OH   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter size hail reported by Emergency
            Manager.

&&

ARK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     Hail             2 SSW Mount Gilead      40.52N 82.85W
05/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Morrow             OH   Trained Spotter

&&

ARK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
214 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Hail             1 NNE Seven Hills       41.39N 81.67W
05/02/2025  M1.25 Inch       Cuyahoga           OH   NWS Employee

&&

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
218 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

OHZ027-028-036-037-021845-
Crawford OH-Wyandot OH-Marion OH-Morrow OH-
218 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MARION...SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOT...
SOUTHWESTERN MORROW AND SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

At 217 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bucyrus to near West Mansfield. Movement
was northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Bucyrus, Prospect, La Rue, Morral, Waldo, Caledonia, New
Bloomington, Green Camp, and Harpster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 8303 4044 8308 4044 8325 4051 8325
      4051 8342 4068 8342 4080 8313 4082 8294
      4042 8294 4042 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 243DEG 67KT 4073 8303 4045 8348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
225 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Hail             1 WSW Grafton           41.28N 82.06W
05/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Lorain             OH   Public

&&

ARK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
245 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     Hail             1 S Woodmere            41.45N 81.48W
05/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Cuyahoga           OH   Public

            Public report of pea to quarter size hail.

&&

ARK