Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes out of the Great Lakes and across the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening. High pressure builds in on
Thursday and persists through Saturday. The next cold front
pushes towards the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 PM Update...
Thunderstorm activity has mostly dissipated this evening aside
from a corridor extending from near Findlay northeast towards
Cleveland where multiple pop-up showers and storms continue to
develop. Opted to update PoPs to reflect these specific
locations and timing through this evening.

Original Discussion...
The main forecast concern through tonight will be potential for
some showers and thunderstorms in a warm/humid pre-frontal
airmass. A cold front will approach from the northwest
overnight, with a weak shortwave expected to move into the area
from the west overnight tonight.

Scattered convection has developed along a lake breeze boundary
from Lake/Geauga Counties points northeast, with some towering
cumulus extending southwest along/just west of the I-71
corridor into the Central Highlands. Convection will likely
continue along the lake breeze through early this evening, and
will likely see at least a few attempts at convection towards
the Central Highlands too. Will likely see scattered convection
that's currently (3 PM) ongoing on the nose of higher theta-e
air from western OH into IN push northeast towards Northwest and
Central OH this evening. Am expecting a window near and after
sunset later this evening where convection attempts to diminish
with the loss of heating. However, as a shortwave moves in from
the west overnight and into the pre-dawn Wednesday an increase
in coverage is likely due to lift ahead of the shortwave. This
increased shower/thunder coverage (expecting at least scattered
activity) will spread east-northeast across the area towards
sunrise Wednesday, leading to POPs increasing late tonight.

Any localized back-building convection through this evening may
lead to locally heavy rain, as seen by a very localized area of
3-4" of rain falling across north-central Ashtabula County with
lake breeze storms this afternoon. Otherwise, parts of Northwest
OH remain outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
strong wind gusts if any organized convection spreads in from
the west/southwest this evening (low confidence on any severe).

It will remain on the warm and humid side tonight, with
overnight lows generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Muggy and unsettled weather continues on Wednesday as the cold
front sags southeast across the area through the evening hours.
The greatest potential for showers/storms will be in the morning
across Northeast OH and Northwest PA in association with a weak
shortwave, and then in the afternoon and early evening along and
ahead of the advancing cold front in conjunction with peak
heating. The risk for severe weather with any thunderstorms on
Wednesday is minimal, though locally heavy rainfall will remain
possible given PWAT values of 1.70-1.90"...this risk would be
realized if any localized training or back-building occurs.

The overall evolution of POPs/rain chances is a little bit
uncertain for Wednesday. The greatest large-scale forcing for
ascent will likely be focused across Northeast OH and Northwest
PA during the morning/midday hours ahead of the weak shortwave,
with weak subsidence behind the shortwave across our area
through the afternoon. However, with a cold front sagging in at
peak heating, some increase in showers/storms will still likely
take place during the afternoon hours. Have a window of likely
to categorical (60-80%) POPs during the morning hours along and
east of the I-71 corridor along and ahead of the weak shortwave,
in line with the latest NBM guidance. Have another window of
higher POPs during the afternoon-early evening along and ahead
of the cold front, though have POPs peaking at 40-60% in this
window to reflect the overall lack of forcing and likely
somewhat disorganized nature of convection per recent hi-res
models (this is generally 10-30% lower than NBM guidance).
Chance (30-50%) POPs linger into Wednesday evening but decrease
from northwest to southeast into the night behind the front.

Highs Wednesday will reach the low to mid 80s, though it will
still be muggy with dew points near/above 70 ahead of the front.
Lows Wednesday night will generally dip into the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will bring slightly cooler and quiet weather
to end the week. We trend warmer and more humid this weekend as
high pressure slides to the east, setting up return flow. A cold
front approaches on Sunday and crosses Sunday or Monday. A brief
window of high pressure is hinted at later Monday into Tuesday,
though progression of the front is uncertain that far out.

Overall, have a dry forecast from Thursday through Saturday
night for most of the area. Low POPs (20-30%) linger across our
southern counties on Thursday, as enough moisture may still be
lingering for a few showers/storms to pop with daytime heating.
POPs return starting Sunday as the cold front approaches. Given
uncertainty regarding how far south the front will push early
next week low POPs linger for Monday and Tuesday, especially
farther south across the area.

Temperatures will cool to closer to normal for Thursday and
Friday and surge back above normal this weekend. A modest
cooling trend is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, assuming we do
see the cold front push through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area
with scattered clouds between 5-10kft. Upstream, a shortwave
trough has aided in the development of a line of convection,
extending from south-central Michigan to the southwest towards
central Indiana. This line is expected to push east into the
area, first impacting KTOL and KFDY by 03Z and then the
remaining terminals throughout the night. Hi-res guidance
continues to maintain most terminals remaining in VFR
conditions, however there is a potential for MVFR visibilities
in the heaviest areas of precipitation. In addition, given the
unfavorable timing for convection, opted to handle any thunder
potential with VCTS versus prevailing as not expecting
widespread thunder. By Wednesday morning, showers should be
primarily focused across eastern terminals, increasing in
likelihood Wednesday afternoon as the cold front moves east.
This may pose another period for non-VFR conditions, but those
instances should remain isolated.

South to southwest winds of 5-10 knots will become light and
variable overnight before gradually becoming westerly
Wednesday morning into the afternoon behind the departing
front.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine conditions will continue through this
week as southerly to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots persist over
the lake. Winds will become northerly at 8-12 knots behind the
cold front Wednesday night/early Thursday. High pressure builds
over the lake late this week which will allow for winds to
return light and variable. Lake breezes will likely occur again
on Friday and Saturday afternoon. There will be favorable
conditions for waterspouts as the cold front approaches the lake
from the west tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...04/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...04
MARINE...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-131930-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Any stronger thunderstorms over western Lake Erie may produce
localized 40-50 MPH wind gusts through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Waterspouts are possible across parts of Lake Erie Wednesday night
and early Thursday, especially between the Islands and Conneaut.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-131930-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected at times this
afternoon through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible if
thunderstorms repeatedly impact the same location. A few stronger
storms through this evening may also produce 40-50 MPH wind gusts,
though the overall risk for severe weather is minimal.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, especially southeast of a
line from Bowling Green to Cleveland. Locally heavy rainfall remains
possible with any slow-moving or training thunderstorms. A few
stronger storms may also produce 40-50 MPH wind gusts, though the
overall risk for severe weather is minimal.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
928 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

OHZ012-014-089-130215-
Lake OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Ashtabula Inland OH-
928 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN ASHTABULA COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 927 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Madison, or 7 miles south of Geneva-On-The-Lake, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ashtabula, Geneva-On-The-Lake, Geneva, Madison, Perry, Austinburg,
North Perry, North Madison, and Edgewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 8093 4167 8101 4172 8101 4171 8111
      4174 8117 4182 8111 4186 8101 4187 8090
      4189 8082 4191 8080 4191 8076
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 211DEG 12KT 4175 8099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1221 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

OHZ029-036-037-047-130515-
Marion OH-Richland OH-Morrow OH-Knox OH-
1221 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND...EASTERN
MARION...MORROW AND NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT...

At 1221 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Delaware, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Gilead, Galion, Lexington, Cardington, Bellville, Centerburg,
Ashley, Waldo, Chesterville, Sparta, Waterford, Caledonia, Edison,
Marengo, Fulton, Shauck, Iberia, and State Route 229 at US Route 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 8275 4035 8275 4036 8293 4041 8292
      4042 8302 4043 8303 4044 8315 4070 8304
      4072 8273 4071 8262 4059 8249 4027 8272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 204DEG 33KT 4030 8305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
104 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

OHZ018-027>030-036-037-047-130545-
Seneca OH-Crawford OH-Wyandot OH-Marion OH-Richland OH-Ashland OH-
Morrow OH-Knox OH-
104 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RICHLAND...SOUTHERN SENECA...
NORTHEASTERN MARION...SOUTHWESTERN ASHLAND...WYANDOT...NORTHERN
MORROW...CRAWFORD AND NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM
EDT...

At 104 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Upper Sandusky to near Mount Gilead.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Tiffin, Bucyrus, Upper Sandusky, Mount Gilead, Galion,
Shelby, Ontario, Lexington, Crestline, Fredericktown, Bellville, New
Washington, Bloomville, Sycamore, New Riegel, Chatfield, Waterford,
Carey, and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 8351 4119 8323 4074 8226 4045 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 233DEG 24KT 4086 8332 4061 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
115 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

OHZ011>014-023-089-PAZ001-130600-
Geauga OH-Lake OH-Trumbull OH-Ashtabula Lakeshore OH-Cuyahoga OH-
Ashtabula Inland OH-Northern Erie PA-
115 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN TRUMBULL...GEAUGA...
NORTHERN CUYAHOGA...LAKE AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 114 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 18 miles northwest of North Kingsville to near
Perry to 6 miles north of Cleveland. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Painesville, Ashtabula, Willowick, Conneaut, Chardon,
Fairport Harbor, Geneva-On-The-Lake, Lakewood, Euclid, Mentor,
Cleveland Heights, Westlake, Willoughby, Eastlake, Warrensville
Heights, Geneva, South Russell, Madison, and North Kingsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4194 8049 4193 8052 4143 8055 4140 8101
      4146 8189 4149 8183 4149 8171 4176 8129
      4199 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 267DEG 21KT 4216 8083 4180 8122 4158 8168

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04