Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
810 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south into the area tonight into
Wednesday, becoming stationary. The front will lift north of the
area as a warm front Thursday as low pressure northeast through
the central Great Lakes Friday. A lingering frontal boundary will
remain north of the area with high pressure centered southeast of
the area this weekend before a stronger cold front pushes
southeast across the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
800 pm update...
We let the Heat Advisory expire at 8 pm. Otherwise, the rest of
the near term forecast is on track with no adjustments needed at
this time.

Previous discussion...
Hot and humid conditions persist across the area this
afternoon, but some relief is on the way as a more active
pattern sets up for the local area. A cold front will settle
south into the area this evening. Scattered convection has
developed upstream ahead of the front in northern IN and
southern lower MI this afternoon in an area of 2000 j/kg MLCAPE
and better moisture convergence. Expecting this activity to
slowly work southeast into northwest/north central OH this
evening, with a few isolated showers already trying to form in
parts of the area. Weak deep layer flow and warm/dry mid levels
are fairly prohibitive for organized convection, although
generally agree with SPC/WPC Day 1 marginal risk for severe
weather/excessive rainfall, with slow moving storms, modest
theta e differentials/DCAPE values supportive of a small
damaging wind threat in more robust convection, and decent
rainfall rates.

Convective activity will generally diminish diurnally through
the evening into the overnight, with most of the area remaining
dry for a good portion of the overnight. Lows will only fall to
the low/mid 70s overnight. With the boundary over the area and
the upper level ridge flattening to more zonal flow on
Wednesday, better chances for precipitation exist across the
area, especially along and south of US-30. Expecting a bit more
coverage of showers/storms on Wednesday with MLCAPE values of
2000-2500 j/kg, reflected with likely pops. A bit more
organization possible too with slightly better deep layer shear,
although environment still rather unimpressive for organized
strong convection. The heavy rainfall threat will be a bit
higher tomorrow with some decent signals in the HREF QPF probs
of 3" in 3 hours, with slow moving/training convection possible
with rather heavy rainfall rates. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 80s north to
near 90 south, and heat indices generally in the low to mid 90s.
Convection will diurnally diminish again Wednesday night, with
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Diurnally driven convection will be common across the area
Thursday and Friday as ridging continues to hold south of the
area. The aforementioned boundary lingering over the area will
attempt to lift north late Thursday into Friday as low pressure
moves northeast through the central Great Lakes, although the
boundary will settle back near the area by late Friday behind
the low. Forecast pops ramp up to likely during the afternoon
hours each day, then diminishes to chance/slight chance after
sunset. Perhaps some better precip coverage will be present
Friday night with the trailing cold front sinking into the area.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal and humidity
values will remain high, although heat headlines are not
anticipated at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some signals for a pattern change exist at the end of the long
term period, but continued above normal temps and diurnal precip
chances expected through the weekend into early next week with
quasi zonal flow over the area. Some signals for large scale
troughing into the Great Lakes by Tuesday with a stronger cold
front moving through the area, which may return temps to more
normal values by midweek next week with a drier pattern as
Canadian high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The main aviation weather message for this 00z evening TAF
update will be mainly VFR conditions will continue tonight
through late Wednesday evening. The exception will be with any
widely scattered showers of isolated thunderstorm that could
move over and impact an airfield. We have some convection across
the area this evening but this should mostly dissipate soon
after sunset. There is a brief mention for VCTS or -TSRA at CAK
through 02z this evening. Elsewhere, the evening convection
should end this evening and not impact any other TAF site.

There is a weak frontal boundary across the central Great Lakes
region that will drift southward into the local area Wednesday.
Widely scattered convection will develop once again during the
max daytime heating. Due to uncertainty of timing and specific
impacts any given TAF site for tomorrow afternoon's convection,
we have left it as VCTS between 16z and 21z for all locations.
Future TAF updates may be able to nail down some better timing
and direct impacts if any. Scattered convection may briefly
bring some flight category impacts. But the general rule of
thumb will be VFR ceilings and conditions for the majority of
the area and through this TAF period. Winds will be westerly
around 5 knots tonight becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots on
Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside for the potential of strong thunderstorms, marine conditions
are expected to be quiet with overall flow 10 knots or less through
this weekend. The highest chance for any stronger thunderstorms with
gusty winds to impact the lake will be this afternoon and evening,
as well as Wednesday afternoon and evening. A brief lull in
thunderstorms is possible on Thursday, before scattered to perhaps
widespread afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances return Friday
and Saturday across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03/77
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
830 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-260030-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
830 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated to scattered storms are possible Wednesday afternoon. A few
storms may produce localized heavy rainfall. A strong storm or two
can't be ruled out with isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
846 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

OHZ028-029-250130-
Crawford OH-Richland OH-
846 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

At 846 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Washington, or 10 miles northeast of Bucyrus, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Shelby, Ontario, Plymouth, New Washington, Chatfield,
Tiro, and Sulpher Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 8298 4099 8293 4100 8282 4099 8251
      4077 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 278DEG 18KT 4094 8287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SW Wakeman            41.20N 82.47W
06/24/2025                   Huron              OH   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management relayed a report of
            several trees and power lines blown down
            south of Collins. Time was estimated by
            radar.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
923 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

OHZ019-028-029-250215-
Crawford OH-Huron OH-Richland OH-
923 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN HURON...RICHLAND AND
EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 923 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crestline, or 9 miles east of Bucyrus, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Galion, Shelby, Willard, Ontario, Crestline, Plymouth, New
Washington, Greenwich, Tiro, North Robinson, Sulpher Springs,
Shenandoah, and Olivesburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 8290 4099 8291 4099 8283 4104 8283
      4107 8244 4099 8244 4099 8242 4092 8241
      4082 8242 4081 8239 4072 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 270DEG 17KT 4082 8280

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

OHZ010-020-250215-
Medina OH-Lorain OH-
933 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MEDINA AND CENTRAL LORAIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 933 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wellington, or 12 miles south of Elyria, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Strongsville, Brunswick, Grafton, Lodi, Creston, Chippewa
Lake, Eaton, Oberlin, Seville, Lagrange, Penfield, Westfield Center,
Spencer, Gloria Glens Park, Chippewa-On-The-Lake, Valley City, Eaton
Estates, and Briarwood Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 8217 4106 8217 4107 8220 4132 8220
      4131 8188 4127 8188 4128 8179 4099 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 289DEG 14KT 4119 8216

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04