Gale Warning 1, NWS Cleveland, OH

821 
WHUS71 KCLE 270219
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
919 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

LEZ145>148-165>168-271030-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.250127T1200Z-250128T1100Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
919 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion 
  to Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-149-169-271030-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.250127T1200Z-250128T1100Z/
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
919 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots
  and waves 2 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH 
  to Buffalo NY.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

836 
WHUS71 KCLE 270809
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
309 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

LEZ145>148-165>168-271615-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.250127T1200Z-250128T1100Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
309 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 
  knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion 
  to Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, which
  could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along the
  southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and no one
  should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-149-169-271615-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.250127T1200Z-250128T1100Z/
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
309 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots
  and waves 3 to 6 feet in ice free waters expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH 
  to Buffalo NY.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, which
  could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along the
  southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and no one
  should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

269 
WHUS71 KCLE 271420
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

LEZ145>148-165>168-272230-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
920 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 
  knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion 
  to Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along 
  the southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and 
  no one should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-149-169-272230-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
920 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet in ice free waters expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH 
  to Buffalo NY.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along 
  the southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and 
  no one should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

633 
WHUS71 KCLE 272030
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

LEZ145>148-165>168-280430-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
330 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 
  knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion 
  to Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along 
  the southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and 
  no one should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-149-169-280430-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
330 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet in ice free waters expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH 
  to Buffalo NY.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along 
  the southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and 
  no one should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

780 
WHUS71 KCLE 280221
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
921 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

LEZ145>148-165>168-281030-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
921 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion 
  to Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along 
  the southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and 
  no one should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-149-169-281030-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
921 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and
  waves 3 to 6 feet in ice free waters expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH 
  to Buffalo NY.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds will cause ice to shift, 
  which could cause shipping lanes to quickly close. Ice along 
  the southern shoreline may be pushed away from the shore, and 
  no one should attempt to venture onto the ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

379 
WHUS71 KCLE 280851
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
351 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

LEZ145>148-165>168-281100-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
351 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion to 
  Conneaut OH, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Vermilion 
  to Conneaut OH.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ061-149-169-281100-
/O.CON.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
351 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 knots. Waves 1 to 4 feet in ice-free
  waters.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH to 
  Ripley NY, and the open waters of Lake Erie from Conneaut OH 
  to Buffalo NY.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

998 
WHUS71 KCLE 281034
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
534 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-281145-
/O.CAN.KCLE.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250128T1100Z/
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-
the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
534 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Gale-force winds have ended.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1245 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge attempts to build from the central and eventually
southern Great Plains as a trough lingers over and very near the
Great Lakes through Monday. The trough is expected to expand to
the rest of our region Monday night into Tuesday as a cold
front sweeps generally southward through northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM EST Update...
The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with
this update. Lake effect clouds over NE OH/NW PA will continue
to scatter out this afternoon and expect high clouds to clear
from the northwest tonight.

Previous Discussion...

Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect the Great Lakes region and Upper OH Valley
through Monday. At the surface, a cold front will continue to sweep
E'ward through our CWA through about daybreak this morning. Behind
the front, a ridge noses into our CWA from the central and
eventually southern Great Plains as net troughing persists over and
very near the Great Lakes. Net low-level CAA behind the cold front
will contribute to daytime highs reaching the 20's in NW PA and the
mid 20's to lower 30's in northern OH today. The aforementioned
weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow net
low-level WAA to develop over our CWA tonight and persist through
sunset Monday evening. Overnight lows are expected to reach mainly
the 15F to 20F range around daybreak Monday and be followed by highs
in the upper 20's to mid 30's Monday afternoon as daytime heating
amidst mainly clear to partly cloudy sky is complemented by the WAA
regime. A tightening synoptic MSLP gradient between the
aforementioned surface ridge and trough and diurnal convective
mixing of the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft are
expected to allow SW'erly surface winds to gust as high as 35 to 45
mph late Monday morning through the afternoon. Will continue to
monitor forecast trends for the possible need for a Wind
Advisory, which has peak gust criteria of 46 to 57 mph.

As for precip potential, rather dry air at/near the surface is
expected to permit a dry cold front passage this morning. Behind the
front, primarily fair weather is expected through Monday as a
lowering and stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the
aforementioned surface ridge. However, the net low-level CAA behind
the cold front is expected to allow 850 mb temperatures to cool to
near -13C over 0C to ~1C Lake Erie toward daybreak this morning. 850
mb temperatures will then likely flirt with -13C through tonight as
the low-level atmospheric column remains quite dry. As a result,
appreciable upward heat and moisture fluxes through openings in the
lake ice cover should yield weak lake-induced CAPE and lake-induced
equilibrium levels (EL's) near 3kft to 4kft above the eastern-half
of Lake Erie through this evening. Accordingly, light and periodic
lake-effect snow (LES) showers are expected to impact far-NE OH
and NW PA amidst W'erly to WSW'erly mean low-level flow through
this early evening. Later this evening, the lingering LES is
expected to shift offshore our CWA as mean low-level flow backs to
SW'erly. The LES is expected to dissipate during the wee hours
of Monday morning as the aforementioned lowering subsidence
inversion causes lake-induced EL's to decrease toward 1kft
above Lake Erie and lake-induced CCL's disappear per BUFKIT
model soundings. LES accumulations are expected to be one inch
or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure will be wrapped up over eastern Canada Monday
night, with its associated (potent) upper trough diving into New
England. The low's trailing cold front will pass north to south
across the local area late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the cold front and particularly before midnight, gusty
southwest winds will continue. Generally thinking 30-40 MPH gusts
will handle it, but potential will exist for some 45+ MPH gusts
across Northwest OH and along the lakeshore farther east before
midnight. Relatively shallow mixing depths in a warm advection
regime argue against stronger gusts, though with a 45-55kt+ 925mb
jet over Northwest OH and Lake Erie Monday evening it will still be
windy. Flow aloft starts weakening overnight, so while it will
remain on the breezy side until the frontal passage gusts will
gradually come down through the night.

The other item of note with the frontal passage will be some snow.
Synoptic snow will likely break out ahead of the front Monday
evening into Monday night across Northeast OH (especially east of I-
77), with confidence increasing to "categorical" levels  (80%+ POPs)
from near the OH/PA line points east into Northwest PA. A forced
band of snow showers along the front itself, enhanced at least a bit
by the cold/icy lake, is expected to drop off of Lake Erie and into
Northeast OH and Northwest PA early Tuesday morning. Some snow
showers could occur as far west as North Central OH, though the
frontal circulation will be increasingly shallow farther west...so
any burst of snow with the front will be increasingly less
consequential the farther west of the primary snowbelt one heads.
Activity will quickly diminish to light lingering lake effect
flurries/snow showers Tuesday morning, as the cold advection behind
the front is rather short-lived and shallow, arguing against much
lake effect response behind the front (especially with so much ice
on the lake). There will be a narrow ribbon of higher low to mid-
level theta-e air ahead of the front, with this airmass being lifted
by strong isentropic lift ahead of the front amid a 60-80kt W-SW low-
mid level jet. This could lead to a period of moderate snow rates
across Northwest PA for a few hours ahead of the front before the
brief burst of snow along the front itself pre-dawn Tuesday. Have
snow totals of 2-4" across most of Erie/Crawford Counties (highest
amounts in the higher terrain of eastern Erie and northeastern
Crawford), tapering to an inch or two in the primary snowbelt of
Northeast OH and an inch or less into the Cleveland/Akron area. A
Winter Wx Advisory may be needed for Northwest PA, especially
considering winds will be gusting over 30 MPH most of Monday night,
which could cause some blowing/drifting and lower visibility. The
short duration of the event, limited lake contribution, and
relatively low snow to liquid ratios (most of the lift looks focused
below the dendritic growth zone) should keep snow amounts from
getting too out of control, so no rush on any headlines yet.

Another shortwave and associated low pressure will drop southeast
across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, pushing
a trailing cold front across the local area Wednesday morning. This
will be a tamer version of the Monday-Tuesday system, with some
increase in breeziness and some snow showers along and ahead of the
cold front, especially from far Northeast OH into Northwest PA. Some
lake enhanced/effect snow showers are likely along and behind the
frontal passage Wednesday into Wednesday night with west-northwest
wind, though with only a glancing blow of deeper cold and quite a
bit of ice on the lake am not expecting too much accumulation...both
with synoptic snow with the front or with the lingering lake effect.

Lows Monday night are expected to be in the 20s, with highs in the
30s on Tuesday (perhaps a few upper 20s in the higher terrain of
Northwest PA). Lows should range from the mid 20s to lower 30s
Tuesday night with highs on Wednesday reaching the 30s before noon,
before starting to slide through the afternoon behind the cold
front. Lows Wednesday night fall into the 10s to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Troughing over the Northeast to start the long term is expected to
give way to a more zonal and mild pattern to end the week and start
the weekend. There is good agreement that a closed low in the sub-
tropical jet will eject out of the Southwest US on Thursday and
drift east into the weekend. The exact timing, track, and intensity
of this feature are not agreed upon yet, which is typical for this
distance out. The 0z GFS represents a faster solution, limiting time
for warm air to build ahead of the system and allowing for a bit
more interaction with the polar jet stream. This leads to a rain to
snow scenario arriving Friday and lingering into Saturday. The 0z
Euro and CMC models offer a (more reasonable) slightly slower
solution, with more warm advection ahead of the approaching low and
less interaction with the polar jet. This leads to a rainier system
arriving late Friday or Friday night, lasting into Saturday. Plenty
of time to iron out details with this system, with the current
forecast having an increase in POPs for more rain than snow Friday
and Saturday. A more zonal and generally milder pattern should
persist into the start of February behind this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Outside of some MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings in lake effect clouds
at KERI/KYNG this afternoon, VFR is expected through the TAF
period with high clouds clearing from the northwest tonight.
Winds will be out of the west at 8 to 12 knots into early this
evening before becoming southwesterly tonight.

Main concern for the TAF period will be the development of gusty
winds late in the period as deep low pressure tracks east well
to the north of the area. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to
20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots by about 15Z Monday. Gusts
to 35 knots can't be ruled out at KTOL/KCLE/KERI by 18Z Monday.

Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR expected Monday night
through Wednesday night, especially in NE OH and NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk west-southwest winds are slackening early this morning, with
generally 10-20kt winds expected to be common today...perhaps
briefly dipping below 10kt over the western basin. Winds begin
increasing out of the southwest tonight to 15-25kt by early Monday.
Southwest winds increase further ahead of an approaching cold front
Monday and Monday evening, peaking at 25-30kt in the western basin
and at 30-40kt gales over the central and eastern basins. A Gale
Watch remains in effect for Monday and Monday night from Vermilion,
OH east. Winds veer more northwesterly and decrease to 10-15 knots
into Tuesday morning behind the cold frontal passage. After brief
high pressure Tuesday afternoon, winds shift southwest and increase
to 20-25kt Tuesday night ahead of the next approaching cold front.
Winds shift west-northwest on Wednesday behind the front and linger
at 15-25kt. Winds gradually subside Wednesday night and Thursday.

Lake Erie is primarily ice covered, minus a larger patch of mainly
ice-free water east-northeast of Long Point. Visible satellite loops
from Saturday suggest the ice is thin and not locked in east of the
islands, with lots of cracks and some ice movement clearly evident.
Ice is thicker from the islands points west, but even there some
thinner spots are obvious on satellite and a bit of ice movement was
evident on loops from Saturday. The potential for ice floes and
shifting of ice will continue to pose a hazard to anyone thinking of
venturing on the ice and to shipping. Of particular concern will be
during the day Monday and Monday night, when the strongest winds and
a third day of relatively milder daytime temperatures will cause the
greatest risk for significant ice movement east of the islands,
which could impact shipping, along with ice floes breaking off from
the shoreline, which would strand anyone on the ice.

Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley NY due to extensive
ice cover.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Sullivan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-271200-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
330 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Southwesterly wind gusts up to 35 to 45 mph are expected on Monday,
especially during the late morning through afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142>144-162>164-271200-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
330 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-271200-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
330 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-271200-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
330 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Southwesterly wind gusts up to 35 to 45 mph are expected on Monday,
especially during the late morning through afternoon hours.

Snow accumulations of up to several inches are possible Monday night
into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.